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Trump's Defence Commitment to Qatar - A new pivot to the Gulf?

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 2d

"Negotiators are still working through the order of steps on a first phase that ties a ceasefire to an initial Israeli pullback and a hostage-prisoner exchange. If either side questions who moves first, or if names on the exchange lists cannot be verified in time, implementation will slip.”

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 8d

Deep-dive with FirstPost into what #Trump's security commitment to #Qatar means, legally, for the #Gulf, for the US role as a protector in the region and the pivot to Asia
youtu.be/evnlNR6dUXQ

What Trump's Qatar Security Pledge Means For Mideast

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 8d

For Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, the directive "turns attacks on Doha into problems for Washington".

"For the region, it restores a measure of deterrence but leaves the United States with ample discretion over how to act," he added.
www.barrons.com/news/what-tr...

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order this week vowing to defend Qatar against attacks, following Israeli air strikes targeting Hamas leaders in Doha.

www.barrons.com

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 9d

"A phased plan should set conditions: recruitment of Palestinian police, milestones for districts handed over, timelines for drawdown, said Andreas Krieg.

"Otherwise, the ISF risks looking like an occupying army rather than a transitional stabilisation mission"
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...

The missing detail in Trump's peace plan that could mean 'violence will persist'

The US president's peace plan for Gaza includes the creation of a temporary "International Stabilisation Force", but analysts say this will be a challenging task.

www.abc.net.au

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 10d

"This Executive Order is an unprecedented security commitment by the United States to a non-treaty ally, just falling short of an NATO Art. 5 commitment...The Trump administration wanted to give as firm an assurance as possible within the shortest time possible"
youtu.be/YhsWXssBs6s

"An unprecedented US commitment to Qatar's security"

Who is set to be on Trump’s Board of Peace? Blair named as part of Israel-Gaza plan

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 11d

“For #Hamas, the plan amounts to an existential threat”,
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social
said. “Yet Hamas has historically sought to amend rather than wholly reject proposals, the political leadership abroad could explore a partial acceptance of certain elements"
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/m...

Tony Blair would have a central role in any post-war plans for the beleaguered Palestinian enclave laid out by Washington

www.independent.co.uk

Reposted by Andreas Krieg

Monica Marks @monicamarks.bsky.social · 11d

Sadly I agree w @andreaskrieg.bsky.social that this is the likeliest outcome. Extremists feeding off one another, to the detriment of all who’ve suffered most.

Palestinians in Gaza who never asked for Oct. 7, and Israeli hostages’ families betrayed by Bibi, have wanted a ceasefire for nearly 2 yrs.

1 4 6

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 16d

"Security in the #Gulf has long been based on a tributary logic, basically you pay someone else to take care of your protection,"
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social
said. "That mentality is beginning to shift after the attack on #Qatar" he acknowledges, "but only slowly."
www.dw.com/en/is-the-mi...

Is the Middle East about to get an 'Islamic NATO'? – DW – 09/25/2025

Israel's first-ever attack on a Gulf state is causing changes in Arab defense policies, with more calls for regional cooperation and common defense pacts. Some politicians have even called for an "Isl...

www.dw.com

How would an Israel-Syria security deal impact the Middle East?

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 18d

@andreaskrieg.bsky.social however, warned that this “leaves him turning a blind eye to the risks that Israel may use ‘salami tactics’ - carving out security arrangements piece by piece until Syrian sovereignty in the south is permanently undermined”.
www.newarab.com/analysis/how...

If agreed, the US-brokered security pact could bolster Israel’s influence, constrain Syria’s sovereignty, and complicate other regional tensions

www.newarab.com

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 20d

“#Israel’s threat to Turkiye is not conventional military aggression but rather the targeting of Turkish interests via indirect means,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, speaking about Ankara’s interests in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus.
www.aljazeera.com/features/202...

Is Turkiye Israel’s next target in the Middle East?

Following Israel’s Doha strikes, Ankara is increasingly on high alert over Israel’s regional ambitions.

www.aljazeera.com

The Return of the Arab–Israeli Conflict

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 24d

My new piece✍️
"The return of the Arab–Israeli conflict is not just about framing discourse. It is about a dangerous new reality that will likely spark a period of confrontation where wars over narratives can easily spill into the military domain"
www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-ret...

The fallout from Israel’s strike on Qatar drags the region back into the dangerous early stages of the Arab–Israeli conflict.

www.andreaskrieg.com

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 25d

“Qataris always had the ability to reach out to any actor and engage them, including Hamas or the Taliban, as they knew domestically that the home front is always safe,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social.
observer.co.uk/news/interna...

observer.co.uk

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Sep 11

My piece ✍️ on how Israel's strike on Qatar fundamentally challenges long-held strategic assumptions in the Gulf

In a transactional post-US order, the #Gulf states need develop more strategic autonomy & use their bargaining power also with the US
amwaj.media/en/article/i...

How Israeli strikes are compelling shift in Gulf security thinking

The Gulf has long been a geo-strategic borderland between east and west, the global north and south. It sits at the crossroads of critical energy supplies, maritime trade and ideological confrontation...

amwaj.media

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Sep 10

The strike "will also put further strain on US-Qatar relations, which is exactly what Israel wants to do", said
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social

"It wants to drive a wedge between Qatar and the United States."
www.france24.com/en/live-news...

Israeli strikes shake quiet Qatar, strain US ties

Ahmed was in a university lecture when he heard the bangs: loud explosions from unprecedented Israeli air strikes targeting Hamas that shattered Qatar's peace and put the wealthy Gulf region on edge.

www.france24.com

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Sep 10

My piece on declining US leadership ✍️

"Struggling for words, #Trump appears powerless to put his dog on the lead. Instead, it is once again the tail wagging the dog - a reality that across the #Gulf will be seen as weak and helpless" #Israel
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/isra...

Israel attack on Qatar: Another nail in the coffin of US regional leadership

One of the Gulf’s most active mediators has been violated, its sovereignty trampled, while the US administration struggled to find words

www.middleeasteye.net

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Sep 10

"Mais l’émirat ne pourra pas faire l’économie d’une introspection. « On assiste à l’effondrement du vieil ordre mondial, fondé sur le multilatéralisme, argumente M.Krieg. Le Qatar, qui a toujours joué cette carte, risque de pâtir de la recomposition en cours.»
www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

Frappes israéliennes sur le Hamas au Qatar : Doha confronté au lâchage de son protecteur américain

Le fait que la Maison blanche ne se soit pas opposée aux plans de l’Etat hébreu et n’ait pas formellement condamné l’opération constitue une rupture majeur du pacte liant depuis des décennies la monar...

www.lemonde.fr

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Sep 10

"For the IDF the attack on Qatar was an operational failure because the Hamas leadership survived and might embolden a sidelined leader like Al Haya. Its also a strategic failure because Israel confirms its pariah state status in the Gulf undermining the normalization trend"
youtu.be/cRUnpFO59N8?...

"IDF Qatar attack an operational and strategic failure"

Hamas chief was targeted in Qatar over ceasefire objections: Herzog

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Sep 10

"Trump's statement reinforces the perception that Washington is no longer in control. The US cannot restrain its closest ally, nor protect its closest mediator. That is a dangerous place for American credibility to be", says @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that the military had 'acted unilaterally', and said the strikes could 'open the door' to an end to the war in Gaza

www.dailymail.co.uk

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Sep 9

Qatar's PM pressed Hamas to 'respond positively' to the latest US proposed Gaza ceasefire/hostage deal

That is despite Trump being unable to restrain Netanyahu to keep his side of the bargain
www.jpost.com/israel-news/...

Qatar urges Hamas to accept US-backed Gaza ceasefire deal | The Jerusalem Post

Qatari officials pressed Hamas political leaders to "respond positively" to the latest US-proposed Gaza ceasefire-hostage deal.

www.jpost.com

Israeli Strike Hits Huthi Leadership, But Movement Unshaken

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Sep 4

"For now, #Israel seems to be using a "fusion of satellite, drone and intercepted communications, perhaps with American or Gulf assistance, rather than an extensive on-the-ground spy network", @andreaskrieg.bsky.social told AFP.
www.barrons.com/news/israeli...

An Israeli strike in Yemen last week killed nearly a dozen senior members of the Huthi government, but has not shaken the core of the Iran-backed rebel movement, analysts say.

www.barrons.com

Israel and Yemen’s Houthis: A war with no end in sight

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Sep 2

“The larger implication is the normalisation of irregular warfare at sea: a non-state actor demonstrating it can threaten a global trade artery for political leverage. That precedent will not be easily undone," said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social #Yemen
www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...

With no diplomatic off-ramp and scant international attention, the Israel-Houthi conflict risks becoming a long-term fixture of regional instability

www.newarab.com

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Aug 25

«Au #Soudan Abou Dhabi fournit des armes, des fonds et un soutien logistique aux #FSR, utilisant ce groupe paramilitaire comme intermédiaire pour renforcer son influence sur les routes commerciales de l’or, l’accès à la mer Rouge et contrer les acteurs islamistes » souligne @andreaskrieg.bsky.social

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Aug 25

“The recruitment of Colombian mercenaries by the RSF dates back to at least late 2024, but it is a continuation of a longer-standing practice by the UAE of employing former Latin American soldiers in Yemen and Libya,” confirms @andreaskrieg.bsky.social "
www.lepoint.fr/afrique/au-s...

Au Soudan, des mercenaires colombiens au cœur de l’ingérence émiratie

Plus de 300 soldats colombiens se trouveraient dans l’ouest de ce pays en guerre, embauchés contre leur gré comme mercenaires par les Émirats arabes unis.

www.lepoint.fr

Reposted by Andreas Krieg

Defence Studies @dsdkings.bsky.social · Aug 21

How has drone warfare changed the trajectory of Sudan’s civil war?

“Drones have made the war feel omnipresent...This inescapable threat has become part of daily life in many parts of Sudan.” - Dr Andreas Krieg

Read: bit.ly/4p0iLmO

@andreaskrieg.bsky.social

#Sudan #CivilWar #DroneWarfare #UAV

In Sudan, the skies have turned deadly

Drones have become the new face of modern warfare, dominating headlines as Russia and Ukraine trade near-daily aerial strikes.But unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) are wreaking havoc in another of the...

bit.ly

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Aug 19

@andreaskrieg.bsky.social predicted that #Israel would deliberately keep its neighbours in “a state of permanent limbo”.

Such a strategy risked cementing Israel’s image as “a rogue state akin to Iran: isolationist, ideologically driven, and destabilising”.
www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...

‘A rogue state’: how Netanyahu risks making ‘Greater Israel’ the new Iran

The Israeli PM’s expansionist rhetoric has shaken the Arab world, with a former top UAE adviser calling him ‘no less dangerous than Hitler’.

www.scmp.com

Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · Aug 8

"The #RSF's transformation in #Sudan from a guerilla force to a force with high-tech air power has been underwritten by a clandestine network revolving around the #UAE that has created a transnational supply chain"
youtu.be/O43uWS0Btps

Sudan: The Secret Drone War You Haven’t Heard Of | Photo Evidence | Daily Mail