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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 2d

Of course, #Colts other cornerstones have also stabilized. New ownership (offspring) appears to be thinking clearly. Head coach has had time to establish a regime. And there is a quarterback. As with most high functioning systems the sum is greater than the parts and the Colts are 6-1.

Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 2d

All of this suggests a much healthier talent pipeline. Ballard deserves credit for figuring something out. This is the fourth year in a row of healthy player origin data. Ballard should at least feel confident enough to go out in public with gray hair.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 2d

And here is the drafted player summary for the week 7 blowout win against the bannana bunch #Chargers. It bodes well rounds 1-4 are the strongest rounds.

A bar chart with elsewhere picks in gray and homegrown picks in blue. The x axis shows rounds 1-7 y axis shows the percentages. The colts have more blue than gray.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 2d

Here is the week-over-week trend of percentage of homegrown picks above league average. #Colts are well above average each week.

A bar chart with each week on x and percentage above league average on y. All bars are well positive.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 2d

Of note is the low percentage of snaps to undrafted players at 18.6%, which is ranked 10. Additionally, we can see what side of the ball gets the homegrown picks: 34.3% to Steichen’s offense versus 16.2% to defense.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 2d

But the worm may have turned. It somewhat coincides with Shane Steichen (hired in 2023) but Ballard’s percentage of snaps to homegrown picks has been increasing. And through seven weeks the #Colts are ranked 8 at almost 60%. Here are their splits through seven games:

Two-level donut chart showing first the percentage of snaps to homegrown picks, elsewhere picks, and unrafted players. And scond those are split by side of the ball.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 2d

Ballard’s track record is mediocre. His teams don’t win much. Three for 11 in playoff appearances. (Andrew Luck was QB in 2017 and 2018.) His talent pipeline appears to barely function 2017-2021. The Josh McDaniels Affair. Number 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson currently deep in the red.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 2d

#Colts player origin splits under Ballard:

2017--36%/33%/31% won 4 games
2018--50%/25%/24% won 10 games
2019--55%/21%/24% won 7 games
2020--53%/25%/22% won 11 games
2021--50%/24%/27% won 9 games
2022--62%/19%/19% won 4 games
2023--66%/18%/16% won 9 games
2024--71%/16%/14% won 8 games

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 2d

There are only three types of players on an NFL roster: homegrown picks/elsewhere picks/undrafted players. We calculate the percentage of total snaps across a full season for these three types of players. Here are Ballard’s splits since he became #Colts GM in 2017:

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 2d

Guess it’s time to discuss the #Colts, with their predominantly white uniforms and Just For Men general manager. (Sidenote, can we trust a dude with chocolate lettuce? Aging men of the world: 50 is the new 30, you can appear less old simply by going to the gym and eating well.)

Colts GM Chris Ballard with a white beard and chocolate monotone hair that cou;d have come from only one place: a Just For Men box.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 3d

Week 7 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): The #Colts shall adorn every NFL-related headline this week. As soon as The Ketchup and Mustard Reign appeared to begin its descent, the #Chiefs enter our daily lives once again.

profootballassetallocation.com/2025/10/21/w...

Week 7 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): The Colts shall adorn every NFL-related headline this week. As soon as The Ketchup and Mustard Reign appeared to begin its descent, the Chiefs enter our d...

Access the Week 7 Snaps Report for 2025 Week 7 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): The Colts shall adorn every NFL-related headline this week. As soon as The Ketchup and Mustard Reign appeared to b...

profootballassetallocation.com

Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 7d

For #Steelers and #Benglas tonight here is a look at how both teams build. Steelers play a bunch of mercs; Mike Brown makes his stooge coach play the draft picks.

From the steelers community on Reddit

Explore this post and more from the steelers community

www.reddit.com

Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 9d

[1/3 Signpost] Week 6 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): Top 10 teams in homegrown picks percentage are high quality organizations. The bottom 10 are really good at collecting revenue share checks.

[1/3 Signpost] Week 6 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): Top 10 teams in homegrown picks percentage are high quality organizations. The bottom 10 are really good at collecting revenue share checks...

Weeks 6 Player Origin Snaps Report: who is playing and who isnt

profootballassetallocation.com

Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 16d

Week 5 Player Origin Snaps Report (The POSR): Bucs are a proper football program with a 4-1 record and top five homegrown roster. Commanders are 3-2 with a bottom three homegrown roster with a bunch of mercs that play hard.

report_week_5

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

But Shanny/Lynch and McVay/Snead regimes are to be respected. The cheapest most reliable approach is to fully load up on drafted and developed players. It makes room for everything else. These programs don’t have that. And they manage to make up for it.

Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

Beyond Stafford being all-world, #Rams should be bad but aren’t. #49ers do struggle with retaining draft and develop, especially in early rounds.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

And the #Rams homegrown picks trend (haha).

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

Here's how many #Rams picks played (or in the Rams case didnt play) in week 4.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

Not all winning teams choose solely to build a draft and develop roster. There are other combinations. For example look at tonight’s opponent the #Rams and how they chose to do business.

Here is the Rams snap distribution so far in 2025.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

And here is their homegrown pick trend in 2025. You can see they oscillate a bit around league averages.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

And here are #49ers draft picks that played in week 4. We can see they get contributions from early rounds, but more from later rounds. This would seem to be a successful tactic. Obviously it’s easier to collect later round picks than top 100 picks.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

Here’s how it’s been going so far in 2025. #49ers rank 14th in percentage of homegrown picks getting snaps. That’s good, but they are playing a touch more undrafted players than I’m guessing they like. The league average is about 15%. Playing more undrafted players is for the most part suboptimal.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

% to Homegrown Picks
% to Elseshwre Picks
% to Undrafted
Win
Loss

2017 51.0% 28.7% 20.2% 6 10
2018 51.4% 32.1% 16.4% 4 12
2019 54.1% 27.6% 18.4% 13 3
2020 46.0% 26.0% 28.0% 6 10
2021 48.3% 30.7% 21.1% 10 7
2022 52.4% 20.9% 26.7% 13 4
2023 57.1% 24.1% 18.8% 12 5
2024 61.5% 22.6% 15.9% 6 11

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

The below table shows season percentages of snaps for three kinds of players: homegrown picks, elsewhere picks, and undrafted players. Ultimately these are the only type of player. Also showing wins and loss for each season.

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Brian Lincoln @assetallocation.bsky.social · 21d

Shanny and Lynch are good team builders. They just get snakebit by injuries and the squirrelly QB play. Their first draft was spring 2017. We of course know it takes time to build a program but let’s start the #49er clock at 2017 nonetheless.

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