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Stephen Schwartz

@atomicanalyst.bsky.social

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Editor/Co-author, “Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940” • Nonresident Senior Fellow, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists • Nuclear weapons expert (history, policy, costs, accidents) and tracker of the nuclear “Football.”

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · Jun 20

In the March 1981 issue of the @bulletinatomic.bsky.social, conflict resolution expert and Harvard Law School professor Roger Fisher described his “quite simple” idea to force US presidents to viscerally confront the lethal consequences of ordering a nuclear attack. books.google.com/books/about/...

An excerpt from Roger Fisher’s March 1981 article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, titled “Preventing Nuclear War”:

“My suggestion was quite simple: Put that needed code number in a little capsule, and then implant that capsule right next to the heart of a volunteer. The volunteer would carry a big, heavy butcher knife as he accompanied the president. If ever the president wanted to fire nuclear weapons, the only way he could do so would be for him, first, with his own hands, to kill one human being. The president says, ‘George, I’m sorry, but tens of millions must die.’ He has to look someone in the eye and realize what death is—what an innocent death is. Blood on the White House carpet. It’s reality brought home.

When I suggested this to friends in the Pentagon, they said, ‘My God, that’s terrible. Having to kill someone would distort the president’s judgment. He might never push the button.’”

White House Military Office Coast Guard aide Lt. Commander Woody Lee carrying the President Emergency Satchel (aka the “Football”) while walking next to President Ronald Reagan (who had recently undergone surgery on his left hand), near the White House, January 10, 1989.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 8h

Today in 1986, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev met for the second time at Hofdi House in Reykjavik, Iceland. The two-day weekend meeting was technically not a US-USSR summit but a working session to discuss mutual reductions in strategic nuclear weapons.

But Gorbachev had a surprise planned …

A color photograph of US President Ronald Reagan greeting General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev at the front door of Hofdi House in Reykjavik. Reagan is wearing a brown suit and tie, while Gorbachev is wearing a grey suit.

A color photograph of Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev posing and smiling for photographers outside Hofdi House in Reykjavik. Reagan is wearing a brown suit and tie, while Gorbachev is wearing a grey overcoat over a grey suit.

A color photograph of Mikhail Gorbachev, left, and Ronald Reagan, right, sitting in armchairs talking to reporters in a room in Hofdi House with windows overlooking the sea. Small sculptures sit on the windowsill behind them and a small plant on a table is between their two chairs.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 8h

The Mark-15, first deployed in 1955, was designed at Los Alamos and was the first “lightweight” US thermonuclear bomb (albeit one that still weighed 7,600 pounds). The Mark-39 was a physically similar but improved (and heavier) version of the Mark-15.

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 8h

Approximately half of the bomb burned in the fire. Although severely charred and mangled, all its components were identifiable except for the tail fins. The bomb was subsequently shipped to the Atomic Energy Commission’s Iowa Army Ordnance Plant in Burlington, Iowa, for dismantlement and disposal.

An aerial color photograph of the Atomic Energy Commission's Iowa Army Ordnance Plant in Burlington, Iowa, surrounded by farm fields.

A diagram oriented in the same direction as the preceding photograph showing the various buildings comprising the AEC's Iowa Army Ordnance Plant, with the buildings and ramps used by the Atomic Energy Commission denoted in green.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 8h

The “birdcage” was retrieved intact before the wreckage was engulfed in flames, but the bomb was enveloped in flames and burned for about four hours, during which time two low-order conventional-high-explosive detonations occurred. The intense heat melted the plutonium pit inside the bomb casing.

A color photograph of a gray metal “birdcage” on display in a museum. A birdcage was used to store and transport a single plutonium capsule or core for early atomic bombs (before sealed pit designs were perfected and deployed). The spherical capsule was kept in the pressurized and neutron-absorbing cylindrical reservoir in the center. The welded tubing surrounding the reservoir kept capsules far enough apart from each other to prevent a criticality accident (an accidental, short-lived chain reaction that, while not a full nuclear explosion, could release enough radiation to kill or seriously injure anyone nearby).

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 8h

The crash and fire killed the four men aboard the B-47. Inside the bomb bay, in ferry configuration, was either one Mark-15 (3.4 Megaton) or one Mark-39 (3.8 Megaton) thermonuclear gravity bomb. One plutonium capsule secured in a M-102 “birdcage” was also in the crew compartment.

A black and white photograph of a Mark-15 thermonuclear bomb strapped to a large wheeled transport dolly.

A color photograph of a Mark-39 thermonuclear bomb on display strapped to a transport dolly in an Air Force museum. The bomb is painted dark green with a yellow nosecone and yellow stenciled words and numbers on the side identifying the model, modifications, and serial number of the bomb

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 8h

Here are more details on the cause of this completely preventable catastrophic accident:

A copy of the cover of the book “Boeing B-47: Strategic Air Command’s Transitional Bomber,” by C. Mike Habermehl and Robert S. Hopkins III. The cover photograph shows the nose and right wing of a B-47 bomber sitting on the ground glistening in the sun.

An excerpt from the accident report reprinted in the book “Boeing B-47: Strategic Air Command’s Transitional Bomber”:

“51-2139 B-47B
379th BW, Homestead AFB, FL
11th October 1957, Homestead AFB, FL
This B-47B (call sign Derby 39) was the last airplane in a flight of four scheduled to deploy from Homestead AFB to Wheelus AB, Libya, as part of Operation DARK NIGHT. Once on the runway the crew notified the tower that the right outrigger tire appeared flat. The tower directed the crew to hold its position while awaiting maintenance to evaluate the tire. Shortly thereafter the crew announced they would attempt the takeoff with the tire 'as is.' The takeoff was normal until the 6,000ft (1,829m) point when sparks appeared in the vicinity of the right outrigger gear. The crew reduced - then reapplied - power and became airborne in a nose high, right wing low attitude. It struggled to gain altitude, striking a dike 1,466ft (447m) beyond the end of the runway, began to break up and burn, and continued another 2,500ft (762m) before impact. All four crewmembers were killed. The investigation revealed that the outrigger tire was flat at the beginning of the takeoff roll, reducing the airplane's ability to accelerate properly. When the crew reduced power it deactivated the water alcohol thrust augmentation, and the remaining alcohol level was too low to restart the system. The airplane was carrying an unarmed 'open pit' nuclear weapon. The weapon core and its carrying case were …”

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 8h

This morning in 1957, a B-47 departing Homestead AFB (about 25 miles south of Miami, Florida) for Wheelus Air Base, Libya, as part of a large alert exercise crashed and burned in a field roughly 3,800 feet from the end of the runway after the pilot chose to take off with a flat right outrigger tire.

A color photograph of a B-47 taking off using Jet-Assisted Take Off rockets (JATO). Large plumes of smoky exhaust pour from the six jet engines and the rockets.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

That is one helluva take.

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

👍

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

What do the captions say?

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

The White House Military Office Army aide is on “Football” duty for Trump’s latest trip to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. The ~45-pound satchel accompanies Trump 24/7, enabling him alone to authorize the use of any of our ~1,770 deployed nuclear weapons—up to 900 on alert—at any time.

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

The camera doesn’t lie.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

This short archival color film captures the Hiroshima bombing re-enactment (the “bomb run” begins at 1:48). H/t @conelrad6401240.bsky.social. www.criticalpast.com/video/656750...

Screenshot of the linked Critical Past webpage featuring the two-and-a-half minute color footage of the October 10, 1976, Confederate Air Force air show.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Here is some pre- and post-apology coverage of the ill-advised Hiroshima bombing re-enactment, which was viewed by an estimated 40,000 paying spectators:

Copy of a headline in the October 11, 1976, edition of the Big Spring (Texas) Herald, “40,000 watch holocaust re-enactment."

Copy of an October 15, 1976, United Press International newspaper article headlined “U.S. sorry for fake Hiroshima.”

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Unsurprisingly, the re-enactment outraged the government and people of Japan. On October 14, the US Embassy in Tokyo formally apologized (in a Washington Post article, unnamed sources described embassy officials as “appalled.”). Read all about it in this 2010 blog by @conelrad6401240.bsky.social.

TOO SOON? THE HIROSHIMA REENACTMENT INCIDENT

Until the day he died , Paul W. Tibbets was adamant that he never had any regrets or even second thoughts about his role in ushering in the...

conelrad.blogspot.com

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Today in 1976, Gen. Paul Tibbets (USAF, ret.) re-enacted the bombing of Hiroshima he led on August 6, 1945, at an air show sponsored by the private Confederate Air Force in Harlingen, Texas. As Tibbets flew a B-29 overhead, conventional explosives were detonated on the ground to simulate the bomb.

Screenshot from an archival color film showing a B-29 bomber in flight at the airshow in Harlingen, Texas.

Screenshot from an archival color film showing the simulated explosion of an atomic bomb at the airshow.

Screenshot from an archival color film showing a mushroom cloud rising from the ground following the simulated explosion of an atomic bomb at the airshow.

A black and white, undated (circa October 11, 1976) Associated Press wirephoto of the simulated atomic explosion at the air show:

"Mushroom Cloud

A mushroom-shaped cloud rises above Rebel Field at Harlingen, Tex., home of the Confederate Air Force, during a re-enactment of the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in World War II. The re-enactment of the first A-bomb use in war came over the weekend during an air show."

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Today in 1967, the Outer Space Treaty entered into force. Now boasting 112 states parties (it started with just 62), the treaty guarantees the peaceful exploration of space for all, bans militarization of the Moon, and outlaws nuclear and other WMDs in orbit, on celestial bodies, and in outer space.

A black and white photograph showing representatives of the Soviet Union (Ambassador to the United States Anatoly F. Dobrynin), United Kingdom (Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the United Nations Sir Patrick Dean), and the United States sitting at a table in the White House to sign the Outer Space Treaty on January 27, 1967. President Lyndon Johnson, seated at the right end of the table, looks on as Secretary of State Dean Rusk signs the treaty.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Today in 1963, the Limited Test Ban Treaty—shown being signed by President John F. Kennedy on October 7 after US Senate ratification—entered into force, ending 18 years of unconstrained atmospheric nuclear testing by the United States (215 tests), the Soviet Union (219), and the United Kingdom (21).

A color photograph of President John F. Kennedy sitting at a desk in the White House and signing a copy of the Limited Test Ban Treaty, as a group of senators stands behind him. Vice President Lyndon Johnson stands at the far right in the dark suit, hands clasped.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Earlier this year, a British video game company released “Atomfall,” a survival action game that uses the disaster as the inspiration and setting for “an alternative sci-fi inspired timeline where the area surrounding the plant has become a quarantine zone.”

Atomfall: How a forgotten nuclear disaster inspired a video game

A new video game has brought the 1957 disaster in Cumbria back into the spotlight.

www.bbc.com

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

For more on the catastrophic Windscale accident, see this 2007 BBC documentary.

Windscale Britains Biggest Nuclear Disaster

YouTube video by Kathy Reed

m.youtube.com

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Linked below is the official inquiry into the Windscale accident, submitted to the UK Atomic Energy Authority on October 26, 1957, by Director of the Atomic Weapons Research Establishment William Penny, et al, but not made public until January 1988. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

The first page of official inquiry into the Windscale accident, “Report on the accident at Windscale No. 1 Pile on 10 October 1947," also known as the Penney Report after Sir William Penney, who chaired the investigative committee. The report was submitted to the UK Atomic Energy Authority on October 26, 1957, but was only released to the public in January 1988.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Tom Tuohy was 39 when he oversaw the successful extinguishing of the fire in Windscale Pile No. 1. He served as general manager there from 1958-64, and died in Australia on March 12, 2008, at age 90. In 1981, operator British Nuclear Fuels Ltd. renamed the site Sellafield in a public relations ploy.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Because of the localized heavy (but still unreported) levels of iodine-131 deposition on grass consumed by cows, the government ordered all milk produced within nearly 200 square miles of Windscale to be collected, diluted, and dumped into the Irish Sea for almost a month.

Atomic Milk (1957)

YouTube video by British Pathé

m.youtube.com

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

This was kept secret for years by the UK government. On the International Nuclear Event Scale adopted by the IAEA in 1990, the 1957 Windscale fire ranks at 5 out of possible severity level of 7 (Chernobyl in 1986 and Fukushima in 2011 are both classified as Level 7 accidents).

A vertically sectioned pyramid, with different colors denoting the various IAEA severity levels of a nuclear accident, with 0 at the bottom and 7 at the top.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 1d

Chimney filters captured much but not all of the radioactivity released by the fire. There are no precise measurements, but an estimated 20,000 curies of iodine-131, 12,000 curies of xenon-133, 594 curies of cesium-137, and a small but significant amount of polonium-210 escaped into the air.

A hand-drawn figure from a report on the accident showing the the contours of radioiodine contamination found in milk downwind from Windscale on October 13, 1957.

Another hand-drawn figure from a report showing the concentration of radioiodine in the air (in micro-microcurie-days per cubic meter) at numerous locations across the Great Britain and Europe after the Windscale accident.

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