Andrew Prokop
@awprokop.bsky.social
4.7K followers 180 following 200 posts
Senior Politics Correspondent, Vox
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awprokop.bsky.social
The Trump-Miller DOJ strategy: "flood the zone with shit."

Target Trump's enemies & opposition with multiple likely doomed prosecutions.

When one fails, move to the next (perhaps against the same person).

Goal isn't conviction, it's putting enemies through the wringer

www.vox.com/politics/464...
Text of Vox article: Watching all this unfold — the weaponization of the US Justice Department, in efforts that mostly seem groundless or doomed — I’ve recalled a phrase Steve Bannon coined during President Donald Trump’s first term. Describing how the right could push back against the mainstream media, Bannon said they had to “flood the zone with shit.”

Trump and Miller, it seems, are trying to target the opposition by flooding the zone with shit. They are going to bring one bogus investigation and prosecution after another. If one flops, they’ll swiftly move on to the next — often, perhaps, against the same people already indicted. (There is already talk in MAGA-land of what else Comey could be charged with, and a separate US attorney’s office is looking into James on other topics.)

The main point is not really to win convictions. Trump’s team would of course love that, but if they wanted to build cases that would actually hold up in court, they’d be going about things very differently.

Instead, the goal is to put Trump’s enemies, and the Democratic opposition more broadly, through the wringer — again, and again, and again until January 2029. Or perhaps even after that.
awprokop.bsky.social
Genuine question, does Trump know who Bari Weiss is?

He's obviously not a Substack guy. Is she on Fox enough that he'd recognize her?
andycraig.bsky.social
There's no way to plausibly act like Paramount would be handing CBS News to Bari Weiss if Trump wasn't in power, and they're barely bothering to pretend otherwise.
awprokop.bsky.social
In some ways the belief that the culture war stuff is all a fake grift and just a put-on for tax cuts is a comforting one.

But it's false, the reality is they really do loathe progressive elites for culture war reasons and hope to wrest societal institutions from their grasp. Which she's now doing!
awprokop.bsky.social
It's actually very relevant and telling information that Bari Weiss says she's allies with the Federalist Society in a battle to save "the West" against (implicitly) the America-hating left.

She's not about lowering taxes and never has been!
dandrezner.bsky.social
There’s a lot in Bari Weiss’ 2023 FedSoc speech that merits scrutiny but I think the Times did a disservice by closing with this quote — given what she says immediately after. fedsoc.org/commentary/f...
awprokop.bsky.social
Bari Weiss is now pivoting to "I only care about good journalism," but in her past few years she's been a factional coalition merchant (cc @profhansnoel.bsky.social ) — she convened a new faction of the right, making common cause with Chris Rufo & others against the left

www.vox.com/politics/463...
awprokop.bsky.social
How do you think the shutdown fight will end?

A.) Dems win significant concessions from Trump, deal to reopen
B.) Dems cave after a few days or weeks
C.) Dems cave before the end of this year
D.) GOP nukes filibuster, reopens gov't
E.) Gov't remains closed into next year
awprokop.bsky.social
In 2018 I wrote up the cases for and against Senate Dems shutting down the government via filibuster (in this case their demand was a DACA deal).

They ended up doing it but caving after three days without success.

www.vox.com/policy-and-p...
awprokop.bsky.social
If Rs continued the Oct 2013 shutdown past Nov 2014 I suspect it would have hurt them in those midterms.

Instead, they saw their polls had already plunged so they course-corrected by backing down.

Is the lesson from that "shutdowns don't matter" or "shutdowns are dangerous, better cave quickly?"
awprokop.bsky.social
Well yes, but, all these shutdowns ended because the party shutting things down essentially caved after a few days or weeks, which allowed the news environment to move on to other things.
jonmladd.bsky.social
Simply very little evidence that any national congressional or presidential election has come out differently because of a government shutdown. You can't rule out there being no electoral effects whatsoever. Think about it. Are persuadable voters on election days ever thinking about past shutdowns?
jonmladd.bsky.social
Need to consider the long term. Likely no effect on long term political prospects at all. After the 1995 Gingrich shutdown, Republicans won 5 consecutive House elections and 2 of the next 3 presidential elections.
awprokop.bsky.social
Not at all.

I'm saying "passing a status quo bill keeping the government open" is something very different, and much less bad, then "removing the main obstacle to them passing the crackdown on the left from Chris Rufo's wildest dreams"
awprokop.bsky.social
So you are unconcerned that, without the filibuster to constrain them, Trump and Senate Republicans would pass new laws interfering with elections or cracking down on the left?
awprokop.bsky.social
People have been saying this for 8 years and it's still around.

Maybe it's demise is inevitable in the long term but I think this particular moment would be a particularly bad time for it to go away.
awprokop.bsky.social
If a shutdown fight ends with Senate Rs eliminating the filibuster so they and Trump can pass whatever laws they want, do you think that would be a good outcome?
awprokop.bsky.social
Senate Rs are currently fine with the status quo where Trump can't pass new partisan laws except in reconciliation.

However, if they think the status quo is making governance impossible — for instance, shutting down the government with no end in sight — they will face increasing pressure to act.
awprokop.bsky.social
The power is real. It is hugely constraining Trump's ability to pass new laws. That's why his entire agenda except the BBB is focused on the executive branch and vulnerable to court challenge.
awprokop.bsky.social
That's why the argument for "shutting down the government to fight Trump's authoritarianism" very plausibly ends in "Trump assumes even more power as one of the last constraints on what he can do, the filibuster, is dispensed with."

More here: www.vox.com/politics/461...
Democrats are on the verge of a dangerous mistake
There’s one big guardrail left on Trump’s ambitions. Democrats are gearing up for a showdown that could destroy it.
www.vox.com
awprokop.bsky.social
If Dems force a government shutdown that is viewed as illegitimate by Senate Rss — and actually stick to it, with no end in sight — then Senate Rs will come under increasing pressure from the right to end the filibuster.

That's the more likely way a prolonged shutdown ends than a Trump cave.
awprokop.bsky.social
Trump has wanted the filibuster gone for 8 years and it's still here. Senate Rs prefer to keep it.

But if Senate Rs come to believe that Ds are abusing the filibuster to make governance impossible, they'll end it.
(As we saw this week with the nuclear option they're deploying on nominations.)
awprokop.bsky.social
The anti-filibuster case also typically asserts that getting the filibuster is good for democracy because it will let the president and Congress enact their agenda, and voters will get to decide if they like it in the next election.

But what if they pass laws interfering with the next election?
awprokop.bsky.social
There's a longtime talking point that ending the filibuster helps progressives more than conservatives because conservatives don't want to "do anything" with government except cut taxes.

Again, this thinking needs to be updated for what we've seen this year and the threat of authoritarian laws.