Stephen Drennan (BabuYagu)
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babuyagu.bsky.social
Stephen Drennan (BabuYagu)
@babuyagu.bsky.social
3.1K followers 930 following 3K posts
Director of Analytics for a club in the USL Championship (2nd tier, US football) || http://craquestats.com Co-founder
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I am not saying we shouldn't have goals this year - just that you can't really look at them right now because from this point you can only think down not up.
winning and defensive nous as understudy to Macca & Grav was a huge mistake. That doesn't explain all our problems but is definitely one of the pieces of hay breaking the camels back right now. Endo isn't it. Thats been clear for a while. As much as I love him as a person.
and Fabinho when they arrived under Klopp did nothing first 6 months - I still remember Fabinho having a horror show in a cup match early on and people being worried. Grav last year.).

Or are some of them just the wrong guys.

I still think going into this season with no midfielder with any ball
How do we get out of the shit?

Is it a problem that time solves? Are we doing the right things and its going against us at the moment? Are there some harsh truths we need to hear? Our some of the 'trusty old heads' no longer trusty, just old? Do some of our new guys need time to settle (e.g. Robbo
There is a rule to dealing with moments like this. Don't talk about big picture or finish line when you are in the shit.

You have to just survive the next 5 minutes. Then the next. In our case its game to game. The league table, objectives, targets - they don't matter.

Just get out of the shit.
They are all the fucking same. They clone Howard Webb and then give him a different nose. Remove the eyebrows. Change the eyecolour. Give him a unibrown. Just change one detail and tell us its a new ref. But they are all the same.
someone put a prompt into AI 'please create the most stupid application of VAR rules you can imagine. Where the objective is to use the letter of the law to defeat the spirit of the law at every opportunity and have people lose faith in officiating and enjoyment in this sport'.

Job done
This is the high bar bollocks again. Hooper wanted to give them a soft fuck free kick because he's a shitref.

But then VAR is just checking if its in or outside the box. Not if it was a legitimate penalty. It cant overrule Hooper and say 'that isnt a foul' just say where it occured.

Its like
That is by a mile the softest penalty I have ever seen. How are you giving that?

Jesus fucking christ. I genuinely thought the officiating couldn't get worse but I should know better than to doubt PGMOLs ability to fuck up a match
We don't HAVE to talk about that to talk about how shit officiating is in that league.

Because if we do that, we never actually address it.

Letting the opponent have the ball in your box is a failure of the defence to prevent that. So all penalties are defensive mistakes. Even non-pens like that
That is by a mile the softest penalty I have ever seen. How are you giving that?

Jesus fucking christ. I genuinely thought the officiating couldn't get worse but I should know better than to doubt PGMOLs ability to fuck up a match
PSA: Wirtz isn't a right midfielder.
at his peak that start happening with increasing frequency as he starts trying to solve how age affects him on the pitch and not quite getting it right
Just lots of those moments that you wouldn't box as a "mistake" but he's just frequently on the scene of the crime when goals are scored with a feeling he was too easily beaten, or stood off too much, or looked afraid of taking charge of the situation, or a shot goes through/around him

Rare things
Just a reminder of my threat of what an aging Robbo looks like.

That was another good example. Fear of being taken on 1v1 so he backs up invites the player into the box, lets him size up the situation and pick his spot and moment, curve it around him into the goal. Reminds me of Skrtel. Brutal
several yards to prevent a player just nudging the ball by them and accelerating. Another is blocking shots. In the box, small distances make huge differences. Being half a yard quicker to close someone down can mean you are covering 80% of the goal instead of 20%.

Another is just a noticeable
Reposted by Stephen Drennan (BabuYagu)
After a week of ridiculous Republican smears and Trump claiming that “very few people are going to be there,” you just made history. #NoKings
In the EPL in 2023, he was average 0.7 shots per game. 0.15 xG per game.

His 3 shots against Brighton was the only time he had more than 2 in a match. He had 16 matches that year where he failed to have a shot. (Some were cameos ofc)

*note numbers here are averages per game, not per 90.
In his career, going back to 2015, including the 4th tier in France - he has never had more than 7 shots in a game (Fra v Spa, Olympics | Mainz v Hoffenheim, Bundesliga 2018/19).

He averages 1.76 shots per game.
Highest xG was 2.1, Avg 0.345

Highest in EPL is 5 (vs Ful & Lei, 2024 | v Wol 2022).
Jean-Philippe Mateta just had 11 shots worth 3.48 xG today. I have data going back to 2020-21 Premier League and no one else has got to three xG in that time. (Jackson vs. Spurs nearest).

The only team with more xG in a game than Mateta this season is Man Utd vs. Burnley.
No. In simple terms, his fitness work in the past month dictates what he can do in any subsequent week. If he misses sessions, or bits of them with injury, and isn't playing many minutes, his ability to sharply increase time on the pitch without injury is low.

learn.beyondpulse.com/blog/chronic...
Understanding Chronic Load vs. Acute Load - Beyond Pulse Blog
Chronic Load and Acute Load: these two concepts serve as the cornerstones of optimizing performance while minimizing the risk of injury.
learn.beyondpulse.com
It might be a sports science thing. His chronic load might not be there and our sports science team might be saying to him 'no more than 30'.

He started in midweek and so maybe there was a warning that he's an injury risk if he plays again today. Therefore, was a 'break glass if needed' situation.
I'm sure this wasn't the plan.

Which means its something he is going with to try and get Isak, Wirtz and Ekitike on the pitch as much as he can to build cohesion with his new attackers.

&/or Frimpong and Bradley are struggling for form and fitness and Dom is holding it down until that changes
Yep, I think a lot of people said before that Trent - Salah link was important. And it was.

And because Salah is playing awful now, it is confirmation this is true. But if you look, he sees plenty of the ball, in good areas but he isn't executing in moments. That is nothing to do with Trent.
trusted to start games or seemingly play in big games like today for whatever reason.
everything that happened today, ultimately they created 1 big scoring chance, 1 half chance and got 2 goals from them.

We created 3 big scoring chances, a few half chances and scored 1 goal from them.

We just aren't finishing chances now. The one guy who is making most of his moments (Chiesa) isnt
I think two things are happening at the same time.

1. lots of new faces in attacking positions, which leads to problems while they settle in
2. the guys we hoped would be constants while they bed in (Dom, Gakpo, Salah, Macca) are either playing out of position or seriously out of form.

For
Parma. Caught the eye watching them and I think is HG. Could just be me being partial to Serie A players though :D