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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Mar 17

Great conference this year at #SRNT2025 in New Orleans!

Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 31

Thanks Charles!

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

@truthinitative @ParentsvsVape @tobaccofreekids.bsky.social @acscan.bsky.social @CatoInstitute @DaffodilCentre @simonchapman.bsky.social @drsarahejackson.bsky.social @eriknesson.bsky.social @Courtemanche_CJ @danieldench1.bsky.social @afriedmanphd.bsky.social @MarcusDillender @matthewgrennan

Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

@jcmecon.bsky.social @econdarden.bsky.social
@DavidCGrabowski @melissawasserman.bsky.social
@Andy_SL_Tan @GaryGiovino @martymakary.bsky.social @MPEriksen @etterjf @ScottHalpernMD @Mikenber @justinwolfers.bsky.social @HuntAllcott @DrCaliff_FDA @AnupamBJena @drjbhattacharya.bsky.social @jeffstier

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

Thank you for reading! Please discuss your questions and comments in the replies below. @denverfrakes.bsky.social @dusetzinas.bsky.social @sangerkatz.bsky.social @crisdelnevo.bsky.social @gfong-waterloo.bsky.social @countthedead.bsky.social @cdcotti.bsky.social @scottgottliebmd.bsky.social 25/25

econ.bsky.social

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

Our results should not be interpreted to suggest that drug deregulation or e-cigarettes are harmless. Without question, some people are harmed by both. But available evidence from this natural experiment suggests benefits sizably exceed costs. 24/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

We discuss whether the mortality patterns may reverse as future generations age, and we find this highly unlikely. For example, tobacco use is lower among kids today than in 2011, and combustible cigarette use far lower. 23/25

Figure N1: Trends in High School Student Current (Past 30-Day) Tobacco Use

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

Our work also contributes further quasi-experimental evidence that e-cigarettes have #PublicHealth benefit in terms of smoking cessation, and now, mortality reductions. We estimate that #ecig drug exemption through 2019 had about 1/3 the benefit of #HIV drugs through 2000. 22/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

Our paper makes many contributions. First, our paper suggests that the drug supply is over-regulated. Whether beneficial effects of drug deregulation experienced in the smoking cessation therapeutic drug class are generalizable to other classes of drugs is an open question. 21/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

We document consistent reductions in smoking after e-cigarette drug exemption, roughly a 6 percentage point reduction in current smoking cumulatively through 2019. 20/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

We also study the effect of e-cigarettes on #smoking using 3 data survey data sources (#BRFSS, #NHIS, #NSDUH). 19/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

We meanwhile find no evidence of mortality reductions from NRT introduction or #OTC status. The unregulated drug (#ecigs) leading to mortality reductions but the regulated drug (#NRT) not raises questions about FDA #effectiveness. @fda.gov @sangerkatz.bsky.social 18/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

Event studies shown above indicate the absence of time-varying confounding. Our results are also robust across a variety of specification checks. 17/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

We find that e-cigarette drug exemption in 2010 reduced smoking-attributable mortality by 10% on average from 2011-2019, saving 677,000 life-years. Most of these life year gains are from causes of death that are impacted relatively quickly after smoking cessation. 16/25

Figure 4(b): Event Studies for Smoking-Attributable Mortality

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

As a simplified example, White men living in rural areas have high smoking rates and Asian women living in urban areas have low smoking rates. Our empirical strategy tests for disproportionate impacts among White men compared to Asian women. 15/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

We use a dosage-response diff-in-diff design which leverages variation in daily-smoking rates prior to drug introduction. We study if introduction / exemption led to greater mortality reduction for higher smoking groups than lower smoking groups. @CharlieRafkin 14/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

We examine Rx NRT and OTC NRT introduction in 1984 and 1996, respectively. We also examine e-cigarette introduction in 2007 and drug exemption in 2010. 13/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

To study the effects of these products on mortality, we use all death certificates from 1975 to 2019, and study the 50% of mortality that is smoking-attributable mortality. 12/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

The rapid innovation in e-cigarettes after drug exemption compared to minimal innovation in NRT due to drug regulation have caused many people to perceive e-cigarettes as distinctively different products today. 11/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

In contrast, FDA-regulated NRTs evolved at a far slower pace. The first NRT product released was 2-mg gum in 1984. It took 9 years before it could be sold with a higher strength, 12 years to be sold OTC, and 15 years for it to be flavored. 10/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

We find drug exemption led to e-cigarette #patent applications skyrocketing in the #USA relative to #Australia, where restrictive e-cigarette regulation was largely unchanged during this time period. 9/25

Figure 1(b): Historical Patent Applications”

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

The #ecig drug exemption provides a glimpse of a world without drug regulation but with product liability law. This allows us to test Tom Philipson and Eric Sun’s theory that #product #liability law is sufficient for a well-functioning marketplace. aeaweb.org/articles?id=... 8/25

Is the Food And Drug Administration Safe And Effective?

(Winter 2008) - In the United States, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) provides public oversight of the safety and efficacy of drugs; medical devices; biologics like vaccines and blood products;...

aeaweb.org

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

FDA drug regulation can be thought of as a trade-off between evaluating drug effectiveness/safety, and speed with which new drugs are brought to market. #MedTwitter #MedSky #PharmTwitter #healthpolicy #Pharmsky 7/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

The D.C. District Court ruled in 2010 that per the 2009 Tobacco Control Act, the FDA could not pre-emptively regulate e-cigarettes as a drug. This was unexpected. It is the only time the FDA has been rebuffed in attempting to regulate a new product as a drug. 6/25

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Christian Saenz @chrissaenz.bsky.social · Jan 27

However, the Tobacco Control Act (#TCA) was passed shortly after the FDA began seizures, which contained language unexpectedly upsetting the FDA’s legal argument framed around Congressional intent. 5/25

President Obama signing the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act” into law on June 22, 2009

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