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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 14h

Yes, I very much agree!

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 15h

😃👌

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 17h

Right wing 🤔 Tristram Hunt is actually a former Labour MP. He belongs to a British elite who don’t find the continent shinny enough (or have a superiority complex) and rarely pass on an opportunity to take a dig at the French.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 17h

I think it is part of a wider - and maybe London-centric - view amongst UK ‘intelligentsia’/elites that the continent is a place in decline, unable to innovate or prove nimble to exploit the ‘exciting’ 21st century opportunities. ‘Le vieux continent’, stuck in its 20th century ways.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 1d

At this stage, the only other ones who would have said yes to the job were the socialists but Macron wouldn't go there. Shame for Lecornu who has done a solid job since 2017 in Macron's party in government. However his second term as PM ends, he will probably be burnt politically.

Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 1d

🇫🇷

Macron has reappointed Lecornu

Incredible

(Not in a good sense)

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 1d

Darmanin 🤔 not fool enough. At this stage the only ones who would have said yes to the job were the socialists. Real shame for Lecornu. He did a solid job for years in Macron's party. But however his second term as PM ends, he will be burnt politically now.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 1d

Affligeant cette séquence cette semaine

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 1d

Lecornu is very close and loyal to Macron, but Lecornu is saying tonight his gvt will have to represent renewal... Not sure anyone will believe that is plausible. Macron comes out even more weakened from this latest sequence.

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 1d

And indeed, Macron has just re-appointed Lecornu as PM & asked him to form a gvt... A reminder Macron appointed Lecornu as PM on 9 September; the latter finally announced a govt on Sunday before resigning Monday morning. So France keeps same caretaker govt for now. 1/2 🧵

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Another scenario in immediate aftermath of 🇫🇷 PM quitting is: Macron does nothing. It took him two months to nominate Barnier after2024 elections, an unprecedented, though not strictly anticonstitutional,amount of time. He may think he can just leave this govt in place to manage things for months...

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Another PM quits in 🇫🇷, less than 24 hours after announcing the ministers in his government. Sébastien Lecornu quit this morning; he was nominated by President Macron immediately after Francois Bayrou quit as PM 9 September after loosing a vote of confidence. This is what could happen next 1/4

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 1d

On polls mentioned in article in case of a parliamentary election: one must recall how very difficult if it is to make any projections because of the two round system and what French call 'le jeu des alliances' (party alliances) & voting instructions between rounds.

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 1d

How domestic deadlock brought Jupiterian Macron back to earth on.ft.com/3KHU92u | opinion

How domestic deadlock brought Jupiterian Macron back to earth

Only the spectre of the far right in government might save the embattled French president and his ambitions for Europe

on.ft.com

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 1d

Well well. The latest twist in the fallout of #Brexit for Gibraltar.

Frédéric Moreau @goodclimate.bsky.social · 1d

Gibraltar suspends applications for residence after treaty news prompted flood of requests from Brits.

www.chronicle.gi/new-residenc...

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Such a silly piece. Analysis (🤔) is shockingly shallow. And style/metaphors ridiculous: 'Europeans are attached to their cuddlier form of capitalism'... All pink and fluffy this side of the pond... 'job security was once Europe's comfort blanket. It now feels more like a straightjacket'. 🙄

Dave Keating @davekeating.substack.com · 5d

Words cannot describe how tone-deaf it is to publish this article at this moment.

But The Economist has been consistently tone-deaf in their Europe coverage for years. They will never get over their obsession with America, even as the US descends toward dictatorship or civil war.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Maybe there is not really a best case scenario - it is highly unlikely that any PM could command stability/legitimact with current arithmetic in Parliament but you never know... And with Macron very exposed and very unpopular, 🇫🇷 is getting closer to an institutional crisis, whomever ends up in power

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

As for parliament, it is extremely difficult to predict given the 2 round system + what the french call 'le jeux des alliances' = how parties negotiate between the two rounds of parliamentary elections. That is how the Left bloc ended up with biggest number of seats in parliament at last election

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Bardella, Rassemblement National, is far ahead of potential rivals but only around 30% of voters' intentions. Traditionally, far right does not benefit from large nb of vote carryover from other parties whose candidate doesn't make 2nd round. So a lot depends on who ends up being 1st round runner up

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Macron could also decide to 'dissolve parliament', which would lead to parliamentary elections. The Rassemblement National secured the second largest block of votes in last parliamentary election in 2024 but did not come first and was nowhere near a majority of seats.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Not necessarily. Pdt election is two round system with runoff between the two candidates that gathered most votes in 1st round if none secured 50% + 1 vote in 1st round. So far, Le Pen has failed twice after reaching second round runoff, twice against Macron. It is also not clear if Le Pen can run.

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

If he were to quit (a very unlikely scenario), there would be a presidential election. It would have to be held between 20 and 35 days after he quits. During period between resignation and election, the president of the Senat is interim 🇫🇷 Pdt, though he won't have full executive powers of Pdt

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Another scenario in immediate aftermath of 🇫🇷 PM quitting is: Macron does nothing. It took him two months to nominate Barnier after2024 elections, an unprecedented, though not strictly anticonstitutional,amount of time. He may think he can just leave this govt in place to manage things for months...

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Another PM quits in 🇫🇷, less than 24 hours after announcing the ministers in his government. Sébastien Lecornu quit this morning; he was nominated by President Macron immediately after Francois Bayrou quit as PM 9 September after loosing a vote of confidence. This is what could happen next 1/4

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

To be clear, left block is calling for Macron to nominate a left wing PM, which is something Macron had resisted since the general election results in July 2024, when a coalition of left wing parties (le front populaire) won the most seats in parliament but well short of any absolute majority

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Far Left party La France Insoumise les by Mélenchon is calling for Macron to quit. Not yet a call from other parties. Macron though is particularly unpopular, personally blamed for current political crisis, and even more exposed politically now Lecornu, a very close ally of Macron, has quit as PM.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Rassemblement National of M. Le Pen is calling for Pdt to call a general election; a reminder that political crisis in 🇫🇷 (three PMs in one year + fragmented parliament) comes from Macron’s unilateral decision to call a parliamentary election in June 2024, after his block lost heavily in 🇪🇺 elections.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Macron nominates another PM and asks them to form a government. The left block is calling for Pdt to do this, something Macron has resisted doing. BUT no block has absolute majority or seems to be able to negotiate a majority in parliament so any new PM & gvt will face the same problems.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 5d

Another PM quits in 🇫🇷, less than 24 hours after announcing the ministers in his government. Sébastien Lecornu quit this morning; he was nominated by President Macron immediately after Francois Bayrou quit as PM 9 September after loosing a vote of confidence. This is what could happen next 1/4

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 9d

@politico.eu takes up prof Richard Whitman’s metaphor for European Political Community: one big leader-level ‘speed dating exercise’. Article 👇 reflects views of 🇪🇺 member states; BUT no views from non 🇪🇺 states 🤔 www.politico.eu/article/macr...

Macron’s big European meeting is turning into a speed-dating exercise

The once-hyped European Political Community hasn’t produced major deliverables, but it’s still useful for dialogue and showcasing policy initiatives.

www.politico.eu