Author | Lightnews

Joshua R. Kroeker

@joshuarkroeker.bsky.social

370 followers 220 following 100 posts

Russia, Ukraine / Geopolitics, History, Security. Consultant, Analyst, CEO @ReaktionGroup (founder). All opinions my own. RT(BS?) ≠ endors

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Pinned

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 2

My most recent piece for the @themoscowtimes.com , looking at the very difficult situation Ukraine is in as Russia steps up its attacks and the West wavers. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/01/w...

While the World Watched the Middle East, This Happened in Ukraine - The Moscow Times

Opinion | The war in Ukraine has reached a pivotal moment.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Sep 9

A reaction from the West is not only needed, but is deeply overdue. It is time to take real actions, at the risk of sounding like a broken record. For how long can Russian cynicism and, frankly speaking, complete disregard for human and civilian life be tolerated?

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Sep 9

I try to avoid posting news here without analysis or at least adding a HUMINT perspective, but this is too horrible to avoid: Today, Russia has hit a pension distribution point with a guided bomb (KAB) in a village in the Donetsk region. 21 people killed, with bodies torn apart lying everywhere.

1 1

Reposted by Joshua R. Kroeker

Viktor Funk @vfunk.bsky.social · Aug 29

neue Technologien, die schnell weiterentwickelt werden – auf beiden Seiten. Im neuen Front-Update in Kooperation mit @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social
und der von ihm gegründeten Reaktion Group zeigt
@table.media, wie die Lage in der Ostukraine ist.

Analyse (Abo): table.media/security/ana...

Drohnenproduktion in der Ukraine: Die Technik entwickelt sich rasant und verändert den Krieg. picture alliance

1 5

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Aug 22

6/ Peace talk will continue. But as our analysis shows, a durable settlement remains a distant prospect.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Aug 22

5/ The likeliest outcome: a grinding stalemate.
-Russia presses for U.S. disengagement.
-Europe floats guarantees too weak to deter Moscow.
-Ukraine refuses to surrender core territory.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Aug 22

4/ On the battlefield, Russia briefly advanced near Pokrovsk in mid-August, but was pushed back within days. Both sides continue to absorb heavy losses, but neither feels desperate enough to concede.

1 1

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Aug 22

3/ At best, symbolic guarantees may emerge: weak enough not to provoke Moscow, yet strong enough to give Kyiv political cover. But such measures would leave Ukraine exposed to renewed aggression.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Aug 22

2/ Moscow still sees no reason to weaken its hand. Russia’s demands—Ukraine withdrawing from Donbas and limiting its armed forces—remain unacceptable to Kyiv.

Even Western talk of “security guarantees” risks stalling talks, as Russia frames them as foreign intervention.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Aug 22

1/ Where do U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations go from here?

Despite a flurry of summits and calls in mid-August, a breakthrough remains unlikely. The positions of Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington remain fundamentally incompatible. 🧵 www.linkedin.com/posts/reakti...

Where do U.S.-Russia-Ukraine Negotiations go from here? | Reaktion Group

Where do U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations go from here? Despite a flurry of activity in mid-August, including summits in Anchorage, high-level meetings in Washington, and follow-up calls between Pres...

www.linkedin.com

1 1

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 26

Thank you so much to @hancock2001.bsky.social for your dynamic (and fantastic) edits in this piece as everything was changing on the geopolitical stage while writing it.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 26

Over the last 4 days, Ukrainians hit the streets to send a clear message: their European path is non-negotiable.

In my latest for @MoscowTimes, I explore Ukraine’s civic resolve — and the risks this moment poses at home and abroad.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/25/u...

www.themoscowtimes.com

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 18

“The slight shift by Trump in favour of Ukraine, although it is good news, does not yet represent a significant change in U.S. policy.”

I am again quoted in french media, Les Echos, on the topic of air defence aid for Ukraine. The piece can be read here in French: www.lesechos.fr/monde/enjeux...

Le revirement de Trump sur l'aide à l'Ukraine aurait un impact militaire incertain

L'aide militaire promise par le président américain, à rebours de ce qui émanait de la Maison-Blanche depuis des semaines, devrait aider substantiellement Kiev à se défendre contre les missiles russes. Mais la guerre se joue désormais surtout sur les essaims de drones.

www.lesechos.fr

Reposted by Joshua R. Kroeker

Viktor Funk @vfunk.bsky.social · Jul 16

vertieft in einer Analyse wird die aktuelle Lage sichtbar.

Danke an @reaktiongroup.bsky.social für die Zusammenarbeit, besonders @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social

Das Update zur milit. Situation in der Ukraine wird etwa alle zwei Wochen erscheinen, mehr erfahren Sie hier:
table.media/security/ana...

Ukraine-Front-Update: Wie Russland auf Krieg durch Verschleiß setzt

Deutschland und die USA nähern sich bei der Frage der Patriot-Systeme an, und Präsident Donald Trump setzt dem russischen Kriegspräsidenten Wladimir Putin eine...

table.media

1 9

Reposted by Joshua R. Kroeker

Viktor Funk @vfunk.bsky.social · Jul 16

diese dann aus Verzweiflung nach Europa gingen. Das Problem droht auch beim russisch-ukrainischen Krieg.
Dagegen setzen wir beim @table.media auf regelmäßige Updates zur militärischen Situation in der Ukraine (und zur humanitären sowieso). Auf einen Blick oder ...

1 1 10

Reposted by Joshua R. Kroeker

Viktor Funk @vfunk.bsky.social · Jul 16

Ein großes Problem beim Thema Sicherheit ist Gewöhnung. Gewöhnt man sich an manche Umstände, sinkt die Aufmerksamkeit für das Thema. Es war beim Krieg in Syrien stark zu merken. Der Westen stellte sogar kaum noch Mittel für die Versorgung der Geflüchteten in der Region zur Verfügung, bis ...

Die Karte zeigt östliche Gebiete der Ukraine und die aktuelle militärische Lage. Russland streckt die Front, indem es sehr breit angreift und dadurch ukrainische Kräfte überfordert.

1 6 21

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 14

If this is true, then I will be the first to thank Donald Trump. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Trump says US will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine

Trump said the missiles are necessary for defending Ukraine because Putin "talks nice but then he bombs everybody in the evening."

www.reuters.com

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 13

Given the divisiveness of Ukraine policy within the Republican Party, whose members include both outspoken supporters and enemies of Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression, we can unfortunately expect this dynamic to play out again and again

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 13

This leads to a contradictory mess that is ultimately adjudicated by a vibe-obsessed executive who, frankly, is not particularly interested in policy wonkery outside of a few core issues, most notably tariffs and immigration.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 13

The result is an administration where every ambitious member of Trumpworld competes to put their own agenda on top of the same Christmas tree.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 13

What we are seeing is just one example of a weirdly schizophrenic administration, whose officials range from old school Reaganites like Marco Rubio to newly-minted Republicans like Tulsi Gabbard and RFJ Jr who joined the party strictly for MAGA’s indulgence of conspiracy theories.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 13

Even Trump denied knowing anything about the stoppage, telling a reporter: “I don’t know. Why don’t you tell me?” when asked who had ordered the shipments paused.

1 1

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 13

The cancellation of Ukraine aid, which was made on the grounds of low U.S. stockpiles, appears to be his thus far most successful attempt to shape actions on the ground, leaving everyone else in Washington blindsided.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 13

Among other things, according to a Politico article, he told a British delegation to call back a carrier strike group from Asia Pacific, telling them that “we don’t want you there,” while also calling for a review of AUKUS, intended primarily to counter China.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 13

Now that he’s in a position to do more than quarrel online, he has aggressively tried using his office in the Pentagon to play an outsized role in top policymaking. These days, he appears to be leaning all the way into isolationism, even with regards to China.

Joshua R. Kroeker @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social · Jul 13

Colby, grandson of the legendary former CIA head Wiliam Colby, spent much of the Biden presidency complaining on social media that the U.S. was doing too much to help Ukraine and not enough to help Taiwan defend against China