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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 1d

— RPD works best in dynamic uncertainty when tempo is high and data are limited.

Enjoy!

strategyinpraxis.substack.com/p/the-third-...

JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 1d

— Klein’s Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model establishes that decision-makers recognize patterns (goals, critical cues, expectancies, typical actions), run quick mental simulations, act, learn, and adjust.

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 1d

— Rational Choice Theory does not fit reality (time pressure, high stakes, organizational messiness); Naturalistic Decision-Making does.

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 1d

— The standard trio of aleatoric, epistemic, and radical uncertainty are static; real life is demarcated by dynamic uncertainty.

— In dynamic settings, optimization is unattainable; decision-makers act on good-enough information.

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 1d

Is it a seagull? Is it a space ship? No, it is an analysis of the state of AI investments. Oh, and the actual newsletter: this week on Gary Klein’s RPD model for decision-making under uncertainty.

TL;DR:

The (third) on decision-making

Introducing RPD

strategyinpraxis.substack.com

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 8d

I'm available whenever throughout the day, so just squeeze me in between the skeletons, candy, and whisky-reserved-for-dad-for-once-the-kids-are-in-bed.

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 8d

At home with Child #2 until beginning of November, but the family are off on a trip without me (as I try to finish a book) so Friday in a fortnight (31) is entirely open.

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 8d

Thank you, kind sir.

On a somewhat related note, we need to catch up soon. It has been FAR too long.

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 8d

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it is the supply for popular demand: a free-for-all one off newsletter on writing and AI.

Is it doomed to constitute, as so many writers appear to believe, intellectual entropy?

strategyinpraxis.substack.com/p/the-only-o...

The (only) one writing and AI

A pause in the natural order of things

strategyinpraxis.substack.com

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 15d

Only a fourth, dynamic kind of uncertainty describes this ebb and flood.

As always, I hope that you will like it and have a great weekend.

strategyinpraxis.substack.com/p/the-second...

The (second) one on decision-making

Enter dynamic uncertainty

strategyinpraxis.substack.com

JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 15d

While Kauffman’s screwdriver proves radical uncertainty, new uses are not guaranteed to recombine. Possibility space reductions are thus possible at least in principle.

New information may lead to a reduction, but also to an increase, of the uncertainty delta (ΔU).

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 15d

John Kay and Mervyn King expand the lens by introducing radical uncertainty, but fail to acknowledge that there is a significant practical difference between that which is inconceivable and that which is unpredictable but anticipatable.

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 15d

The most common approaches with which decision-makers attempt to manage uncertainty — by collecting data and making models — break down in contexts where the future is unknowable.

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 15d

Is it a dragonfly? Is it a kite? We are still not quite sure. Oh, wait! It is another newsletter on uncertainty — this one on my own work.

The TL;DR:

The (second) one on decision-making

Enter dynamic uncertainty

strategyinpraxis.substack.com

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 22d

Alas, it is far more common to face radical or dynamic uncertainty. These variants require a completely different way of thinking.

As always, I hope that you will enjoy it and have a great weekend.

strategyinpraxis.substack.com/p/the-first-...

JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 22d

A far more helpful method is to define the kind of uncertainty that one is facing.

Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, respectively, provide the traditional baseline. Both are inherently resolvable.

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 22d

We all live and work amid unknowable outcomes; despite an army of tools and data, the future resists prediction.

The classic (economic) split is that of risk referring to known probabilities, while uncertainty refers to unknown probabilities. Reality, however, requires far more nuance.

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JP Castlin @jpcastlin.bsky.social · 22d

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? We aren’t really sure. Oh, wait! It’s a free-for-all newsletter about decision-making under uncertainty! And the 2026 keynotes too!

TL;DR:

The (first) one on decision-making

A free-for-all

strategyinpraxis.substack.com

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