Michael Horowitz
@michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
9.9K followers 890 following 1K posts
Geopolitical and security analyst, Views are my own.
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michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Zelensky and Trump discuss the supply of Tomahawk missiles as well as patriots interceptors
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
The Syrian interior ministry says its forces in the al-Qusayr area managed to seize a shipment of Kornet missiles prepared for smuggling out of the country,

It says this is the second operation of its kind within two weeks
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Trump is holding a phone call with #Ukraine's President Zelenskiy
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Witkoff and Kushner at Jerusalem's Western Wall
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Israel cabinet meeting to review and approve the deal has started
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
This hasn't been confirmed so far - other sources say the exact hour has yet to be approved
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Trump is likely to visit Israel on Sunday - will make a statement at the Knesset
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Ceasefire to start at 12:00 per Israeli TV
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Next steps:
- Israel is set to sign the agreement this afternoon,
- The cabinet will approve the deal in a meeting.
- Within 24 hours of this approval, Israeli troops will start withdrawing to negotiated lines in Gaza.
- Living hostages will be released within 72 hours, after this withdrawal
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Hostage families ask Trump for meeting to thank him personally, and propose he speaks at hostage square in Tel Aviv
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Either way, while we're not out of the woods yet, I'd say we're closer than we've ever been - and that's also thanks to Trump.
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
The difference is also the political situation in Israel, with elections due next year. Will Bibi's coalition fall or will Smotrich do the same trick as last time, and only threaten to leave when we move to phase 2?
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
What may be different this time? Hamas is set to free all hostages in the first phase, which will be a real test of its belief in guarantees that Israel won't resume the war + the fact that it agrees in principle to disarm, which Bibi can sell as a "total victory" (even though it won't be)
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
So we're back to a deal with phases (despite the fact that the framework presented by Trump did not mention any). These deals always have a weak point, namely the transition between the first and second phase.
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Statement by Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu:

A great day for Israel. I will convene the government tomorrow in order to approve the agreement, and return all our dear hostages home.
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Deal for the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire/hostage-release signed.
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
The Egyptian FM said he had "a long conversation with Steve Witkoff, who is expected in Egypt in the coming hours."
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
A US delegation led by presidential envoy Steve Witkoff will join the negotiations to secure a ceasefire/hostage release agreement according to Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Hamas and Israel's delegations have arrived in Egypt's Sharm El-Sheikh for ceasefire talks
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Seems polling was actually extended in Damascus by 30 min
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Syrian Electoral Commission: Polling ends in Damascus countryside and some other centers in the governorates
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
#Israel: PM Netanyahu is due to deliver a statement at 20:00 tonight
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
Looks like Hamas' "Yes, but" strategy worked - Trump wants to press ahead with negotiations
michaelhorowitz.bsky.social
#Breaking Trump says he believes Hamas is ready for "lasting peace", calls on Israel to stop bombing Gaza and says "We are already in discussions on details to be worked out"