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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 42m

Honestly if the Gaza peace deal holds, Trump would have a strong case for a Nobel, more than Obama when they gave it to him right after taking office and before starting 4 new military interventions, and certainly more than Kissinger after the Bangladesh genocide, Cambodia bombing and Chile coup.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

However it could also give false hope to a dream of quick regime change, be seen by Trump as an endorsement of his approach, solidify sanctions, and escalate military strikes. That outcome would likely only strengthen the Maduro regime and exacerbate the refugee crisis.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

The Nobel may help MCM consolidate her leadership of the opposition as a whole, and help unite them behind a coordinated strategy. It may protect her from the threats on her life. It may even help pressure Maduro to ease his repression, if not give up power.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

Blowing up boats in the Caribbean has not shaken the Maduro regime, and it’s unlikely that targeted strikes on Venezuela’s government itself would do so either. The military is the key player, but it is firmly ensconced in all the profitable sectors of the economy. It’s not breaking with Maduro.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

MCM has stood up against enormous odds and threats and has tried different approaches. But so far none have been successful. It is understandable why many conclude, after two stolen elections, that peaceful change is impossible, and US military force is the only option. But this too has failed.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

After she was banned, she rallied the opposition vote behind Edmundo Gonzalez, who won and was only stopped by Maduro through blatant election fraud.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

This is not to say MCM has only pursued insurrectionary measures. She worked toward elections last year that were negotiated with the US, and was banned from running because she clearly would have beaten Maduro in a fair race.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

MCM’s allies have been in close contact with the Trump administration and encouraging his military escalation, suggesting to him that the regime is about to fall if the US just tightens the screws. Past promises that more US pressure will provoke a coup against Maduro have failed to materialize.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

That said, if the award was meant to encourage peace, it may not work. MCM heads the opposition’s hardline faction, which has pushed for regime change by any means necessary. They have supported the US’s sectoral sanctions, which have exacerbated the suffering of the people but not dislodged Maduro.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

8 million Venezuelans have fled the country under his rule. Both Maduro’s mismanagement and US sanctions have contributed to this refugee exodus.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

It also shouldn’t be minimized that the human rights situation in Venezuela is dire and deserving of attention, regardless of Trump’s saber rattling. Maduro is a corrupt tyrant and his regime’s brutality in repressing its own citizens is matched only by its incompetence in keeping them fed.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

She’s an effective organizer and, if she hasn’t quite united Venezuela’s famously fragmented opposition, has emerged as its most prominent face.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

There may be truth to that but it would be unfair to MCM, who is a leader in her own right, and a remarkably courageous one at that. She’s stayed in Venezuela when many other opposition leaders and activists have fled, at considerable risk to her own life.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1h

A surprising choice by the Nobel Committee. One (US-centric) interpretation is they didn’t want to give it to Trump but figured giving it to a Trump ally who is a genuine anti-authoritarian leader would mollify him. And encourage him to pursue peace at a time when he’s pursuing military escalation.

The Associated Press @apnews.com · 8h

BREAKING: For her work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela, María Corina Machado wins the Nobel Peace Prize.

María Corina Machado of Venezuela wins the Nobel Peace Prize

Opposition activist María Corina Machado of Venezuela has won the Nobel Peace Prize. The Norwegian Nobel committee praised her as a key figure in unifying Venezuela's political opposition.

bit.ly

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1d

This sounds very sustainable and not at all like a ponzi scheme

Tales From The Future @talesftf.bsky.social · 3d

“Nvidia plans to invest in OpenAI, which is buying cloud computingfrom Oracle, which is buying chips from Nvidia, which has a stake in CoreWeave, which is providing AI infrastructure to OpenAI.”

Circle jerk secured.

#AIbubble #timestamp

www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...

The AI boom's reliance on circular deals is raising fears of a bubble

A spate of recent deals among AI's biggest players has tightened the circle of companies and investments underpinning the technology’s explosive growth.

www.nbcnews.com

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1d

I’m sure this is no big deal www.bain.com/about/media-...

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 1d

I don’t think there’s enough discussion about how likely it is that the AI sector will collapse the global economy even before it cooks the planet www.axios.com/2025/10/08/o...

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

Could be the strategy but losing cases hasn’t been a deterrent for Trump so far. Rather, defying courts as a show of power pays greater political dividends for Trump than creating legal precedents.

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

Update: The whole Kirk vigil is an appeal by “Porky,” the mayor of Lima, to get Trump to personally intervene in a lawsuit with a US asset management company. Because of course. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/w...

Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

He’s already been doing that!

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

Maybe the tankies should consider the possibility that Mamdani really believes what he says

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

I expect this will blow over once it becomes clear there won’t be a coup. Trump will try more provocations, including decapitation strikes. All Maduro has to do is avoid assassination. If he’s lucky, he’ll end up with a Pres. Rubio and both will get a convenient foreign bogeyman.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

Trump was always lukewarm on Venezuela and, according to Bolton’s memoir, privately admired Maduro’s “toughness.” He went along with the regime change shenanigans because Rubio and Bolton promised him a quick and easy win. When that failed to materialize, he got bored and moved on.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

We’ve been through this before. In Trump 1, Bolton and Rubio convinced Trump that the generals were ready to rise up and overthrow Maduro if Trump just tightened sanctions, recognized Guaido and leak a fake troop deployment.

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Michael Paarlberg @mpaarlberg.bsky.social · 2d

Rubio is more of a neocon and would be happy with a regime change war. But he wants to be president and knows where the maga base is at. His authority is consistently undermined by Miller and Witkoff. He wants to appear tough toward a longtime US foe to burnish his FP credentials.

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