Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 10d

The US continues to do everything besides normal taxes - is this the start of a universal healthcare program in the US?

Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 16d

From @stephensemler.bsky.social newsletter.

That's why I was never a fan of the ‘vibecession' theory - things got worse for many when many programs like the child tax credit got cut.

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 18d

Turns out - we can't really say that people have become less conscientious.

More importantly, whenever you see a 'data-driven' headline, ask those 3 questions and it'll help you stay away from the noise.

www.nominalnews.com/p/are-people...

Are People Really Less Conscientious?

A Financial Times article claims people have become less conscientious, but a closer look paints a more complicated picture.

www.nominalnews.com

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 18d

You may have seen this chart making the rounds about whether people are less conscientious. But are the really?

I took a deeper dive, asking three questions:

1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 20d

www.nominalnews.com/p/immigratio...

Immigration – Fiscal and Macro Impacts

Surveys suggest people think immigrants are a net negative on the budget. Research shows otherwise.

www.nominalnews.com

Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 20d

www.nominalnews.com/p/h-2b-immig...

H-2Bs - Immigrants Without Degrees Spur Economic Growth

Immigration policy debates often suggest a different treatment of immigrants based on education level – research suggests that this may not be warranted.

www.nominalnews.com

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 20d

www.nominalnews.com/p/h-1bs-immi...

H-1Bs – Immigrants with Degrees Spur Economic Growth

Immigration is often scapegoated for many issues. In reality, immigration boosts the economy.

www.nominalnews.com

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 20d

Research on immigration shows that immigrants bring significant economic value and are in many cases positive for the fiscal health of the government. The three articles below describe this research at length:

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 20d

Proponents of immigration restrictions believe that these restrictions will lead to higher domestic hiring. Shouldn't we see this falling then?

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 21d

How to destroy your competitive advantage in one quick swoop:

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 22d

The labor market is weird because tariffs and uncertainty have hurt dynamism and made opening businesses riskier. Debt costs remain similar so I doubt there will be much impact on these decisions.

Inflation will remain for the foreseeable 3 months. September already appears like it'll be elevated.

Nominal News @nominalnews.com · 22d

The interest rate cut did not impact the US government borrowing costs at all. As expected.

Personally, I'd be surprised if we see any more cuts this year. I'd put higher probability on a rate hike (unless courts void tariffs, in which case no change to rates).

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 5

Economics often has too much jargon and gate keeping. I want to change that - which is why I write my newsletter.

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 5

We've been in a tight labor market for 3+ years

In a tight labor market, workers have more bargaining power. This has been the paradigm over the past years

With a loosening labor market (due to the Republican agenda), firms will see the paradigm has shifted and that they have the bargaining power

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 4

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Seeing economic data through the fog of immigration estimates

The US immigration rate in 2025 is unknown and will continue to be for a while. Policymakers and economic forecasters need to accept significant uncertainty about the rate and the resulting pace of ov...

www.piie.com

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 4

The BLS does a fantastic job. But it operates in a reality where people are afraid to respond. This inherently means such survey based data will be less reflective. It's not the BLS' fault at all, but drawing conclusions from it requires careful consideration (this is true for any data).

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 4

The aggressive Republican immigration policy is most likely scaring away immigrants from responding to government surveys.

You'd think the next head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics would be cognizant of such things, but I doubt he reads Nominal News.

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Seeing economic data through the fog of immigration estimates

The US immigration rate in 2025 is unknown and will continue to be for a while. Policymakers and economic forecasters need to accept significant uncertainty about the rate and the resulting pace of ov...

www.piie.com

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 4

A chart that shows ‘native’ job employment up in the US while immigrant job employment is significantly down…maybe false!

Why? Well it's based on surveys. What's the main problem with surveys? People don't have an incentive to tell the truth and… actually respond at all.

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 4

Hot Take: Companies would be better off developing algorithms that do 80% of a task close to perfectly, rather than incorporating genAI that can do 95% of the task but with 90% accuracy.

Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 3

www.nominalnews.com/p/reading-ec...

A Reader’s Guide to Economic Headlines

With the media posting sensational economic stats daily, filtering out the noise becomes crucial.

www.nominalnews.com

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 3

We keep seeing sensational headlines like these - but often they are incorrect or meaningless.

I wrote a short guide on how to avoid such sensational headlines:

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 3

www.nominalnews.com/p/reading-ec...

A Reader’s Guide to Economic Headlines

With the media posting sensational economic stats daily, filtering out the noise becomes crucial.

www.nominalnews.com

Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 3

Media loves sensational economic stats headlines. If you want to filter out the noise, ask these 3 questions when reading any data headlines:

1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?

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Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Sep 1

Every doctor would tell you not to switch the medicine if it is working.
But the private health insurer says they no longer cover it, because there is a cheaper, bio-similar alternative.
You switch - it no longer works. Switching back also might not work.

Who pays for the damages?

Nominal News @nominalnews.com · Aug 29

We brought down 9% inflation with 4.5% interest rates. Because it took a year, it wasn't 'transitory' inflation.

We now have 4% interest rates, and inflation is ticking up to 3% due to tariffs. This inflation is allegedly 'transitory'.

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