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Pawel Zerka, PhD

@pawelzerka.bsky.social

330 followers 41 following 10 posts

Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), based in France / public opinion on foreign affairs / European sentiment / France / Poland / Belarus / Latin America

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Pawel Zerka, PhD @pawelzerka.bsky.social · May 20

@rafal-trzaskowski.bsky.social powinien zacząć mówić o 2027.

Jeśli Nawrocki motywuje wyborców potrzebą zatrzymania jedynowładztwa Tuska, to łatwo to odwrócić. Prawica ze skrajną prawicą mogą dojść do władzy w 2027.

Trzaskowski jako prezydent jest potrzebny, aby zatrzymać ich jedynowładztwo.

Pawel Zerka, PhD @pawelzerka.bsky.social · May 7

These are Eurovisionary times.

ECFR @ecfr.eu · May 7

European sentiment, tested by external threats and internal doubts, is finding new life in the Trump era: not in grand declarations, but in a slow, stubborn commitment to endure and move forward, writes @pawelzerka.bsky.social
@ecfrpower.bsky.social

Eurovisionary times: How the continent is learning to sing in Trump’s face

European sentiment, tested by external threats and internal doubts, is finding new life in the Trump era: not in grand declarations, but in a slow, stubborn commitment to endure and move forward

bit.ly

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Pawel Zerka, PhD @pawelzerka.bsky.social · May 2

This is interesting on so many levels: as an effort of #Trump 2.0 to influence domestic politics in Europe (this time in #Poland); as an experiment on whether this can boost rather than damage the candidate's credibility; and as presence of 'US policy' in elections.

tvpworld.com/86489103/rig...

Rightwing Polish presidential candidate meets Trump

The first round of the Polish presidential election will take place on May 18.

tvpworld.com

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Pawel Zerka, PhD @pawelzerka.bsky.social · Apr 1

With @celiabelin.bsky.social and @camillelons.bsky.social, we argue Le Pen's conviction will have implications well beyond France, serving as a powerful proof for the international far-right that the system is unfair and skewed against them 👇 @ecfr.eu

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Apr 1

Marine Le Pen’s conviction disqualifies her from the 2027 French presidential race – a development likely to embolden far-right movements across Europe.
Commentary by @celiabelin.bsky.social @camillelons.bsky.social & @pawelzerka.bsky.social
@ecfrpower.bsky.social

Slip of Le Pen: How the conviction of the French politician will fuel Europe’s far right

The sentencing of far-right politician Marine Le Pen for embezzling EU funds will not only change the 2027 race for the French presidency. It also risks emboldening anti-establishment narratives…

buff.ly

Reposted by Pawel Zerka, PhD

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Mar 5

The Trump administration has withdrawn all military aid for Ukraine. Europeans can fill the void—but they need to act fast, writes @rafaelloss.bsky.social

Read here:

Disdain for Ukraine: How Europeans can support Zelensky against Trump’s cuts

The Trump administration has withdrawn all military aid for Ukraine. Europeans can fill the void—but they need to act fast

buff.ly

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Pawel Zerka, PhD @pawelzerka.bsky.social · Feb 5

Join us next week for the discussion inspired by ECFR's fresh polling data.

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Feb 5

📅 12 Feb 2025, 14:00 CET

📊 New ECFR polling: How do Europeans see transatlantic ties, Ukraine, Russia & China?

w/ @jpuglierin.bsky.social @arturovarvelli.bsky.social @pawelzerka.bsky.social @mprochwicz.bsky.social @fromtga.bsky.social

📍 Live on Zoom – Register: https://buff.ly/3CODpmm

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Pawel Zerka, PhD @pawelzerka.bsky.social · Dec 6

Don't write off #France just yet, but instead keep it engaged in Europe's defence & #Ukraine decisions + seek to fill in Europe's leadership gaps that its domestic political turmoil only exacerbates.

Here's our recommendation - with @camillegrand.bsky.social & Camille Lons - for the rest of Europe.

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Dec 6

European governments are concerned that prolonged political and economic turmoil in the European Union’s second largest member state will affect their capacity to demonstrate unity and leadership', write @camillegrand.bsky.social, Camille Lons and @pawelzerka.bsky.social. ecfr.eu/article/keep...

Keeping Paris in: How Europeans should respond to France’s political turmoil

French prime minister Michel Barnier has been ousted following a vote of no confidence. European governments need to demonstrate that, despite France’s internal political turmoil, they maintain a unit...

ecfr.eu

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Pawel Zerka, PhD @pawelzerka.bsky.social · Dec 5

Germany, France... Which is the other EU country most vulnerable to government collapse or the need to call snap elections?

The Netherlands? The Czech Republic? Spain?

Pawel Zerka, PhD @pawelzerka.bsky.social · Dec 4

Today's vote to end #Barnier gov looks like a lose-lose situation to me.

Not only will it heighten economic uncertainty in and vis-a-vis #France, but it's also to-be-seen if the left or the far-right, who voted the government down, will be able to draw any political benefit from it.

Pawel Zerka, PhD @pawelzerka.bsky.social · Nov 26

Argentina needs Brazil or Europe needs Argentina?

Pawel Zerka, PhD @pawelzerka.bsky.social · Nov 25

Why #Europe needs #Brazil, how the two misunderstand each other, and what would it take for them to build a real partnership.

We discussed these with Monica Hirst @jpuglierin.bsky.social & Nacho Torreblanca at the @ecfr.bsky.social webinar last Friday. Watch it here 👇

ecfr.eu/event/samba-...

Samba Steps: Understanding Brazil’s global role and what it means for Europe

As global power dynamics shift amid intensifying US-China rivalry, the rise of assertive middle powers, and increased scepticism toward the international rules-based order…

ecfr.eu

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