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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 17h

My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying

kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware

Peers beware

Flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 8d

My new Substack reports fresh data that reveal the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...

Voters are not listening

New research uncovers the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 22d

Populists rely on voters overstating the scale of today's problems. Polls show that this is far too common in Britain - and around the world
kellnerp.substack.com/p/ignorance-...

“Ignorance is Strength”. Was Orwell’s Big Brother right?

Yes – for populists. Parties like Reform rely on voters overstating the scale of today’s problems

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 29d

Keir Starmer are in worse troubl;e than they realise. My new "respect index" compares what is happening now with what happened after past change elctions. All my Substack posts are free. Read this one here. kellnerp.substack.com/p/historys-w...

History’s warning for Starmer and Badenoch

The "respect index" shows that their problems are even worse than they think

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Sep 1

We know the Tories are in terrible trouble. My latest post looks at its chances of survival, drawing on the lessons from history, and names two people who can help it see off Reform

kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-the-to...

How the Tories can avoid the abyss…

… and the two people who can help them see off Reform

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Jul 28

Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think. New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support

kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-and...

Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think

New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Jul 24

Corbyn and Sultana are looking for a name for their new party. Votey McVoteface?

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Jul 8

Until now, Britain’s voters have normally chosen not just their MPs but, in practice, their prime minister. Those days may be coming to an end. This is the second post about tackling the problems with our voting system
kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-kind-...

What kind of democracy do we want?

Until now, Britain’s voters have normally chosen not just their MPs but, in practice, their prime minister. Those days may be coming to an end

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Jun 30

Revealed: the brutal arithmetic that will shape the next general election. Nigel Farage could become prime minister even if Reform falls short of 30% support

kellnerp.substack.com/p/reforms-wi...

Reform's winning post is closer than I thought

Revealed: the brutal arithmetic that will shape the next general election

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Jun 23

Last year our voting system punished Nigel Farage. Last month it rewarded him. My latest Substack post argues that First Past The Post has served us well but now needs to go.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/to-stop-re...

To stop Reform, change the voting system

Without change, Farage could become prime minister even though most voters can't stand him

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Jun 9

Thr war against big tobacco is not over. One of Britain’s most successful campaigns still has work to do.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/fighting-b...

Fighting big tobacco: now for the endgame

One of Britain’s most successful campaigns still has work to do

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Jun 5

On June 5, 1967, Israel launched the Six Day war. One of the architects of its victory was a distant relative. I can now reveal his private warning before the war of the disaster facing his country if it ended up occupying Gaza and the West Bank.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/defeat-the...

'Defeat the Palestinians, then set them free'

Revealed: the private warning of the Israeli general who feared that occupying the West Bank and Gaza would lead to disaster

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · May 26

From winter fuel allowance and child benefit to immigration and Europe, Labour’s ministers have been led astray by the data they rely on. My Substack post argues that it is time to change their ways
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-pollster...

A pollster warns: beware of the polls

Labour’s ministers have been led astray by the data they rely on. Time to change their ways

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · May 19

New research by YouGov shows that, even with its support down to 23 per cent, Labour may not have reached rock bottom. Here is my analysis for Substack
kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-b...

Starmer's biggest mistake is taking progressive voters for granted.

New research by YouGov shows that, even with its support down to 23 per cent, Labour may not have reached rock bottom

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · May 14

Will the UK-EU summit on May 19 be a turning point in their relationship, or just a minor staging post where nothing big is achieved? My analysis for @carnegieendowment.org looks at what each side wants and where deals are possible.

carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...

The Moment of Truth for a UK-EU Reset

Ahead of the UK-EU summit on May 19, London is aiming to reset its relations with Brussels by focusing on defense, migration, and trade. However, meaningful progress might be limited without a major r...

carnegieendowment.org

peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · May 13

Some rare good news for Keir Starmer: there won't be a Tory-Reform pact, so the right-wing vote wil be divided agan at the next general election. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk crunches the numbers and sets out the reasons
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/699...

Who would benefit from a Reform-Tory pact?

Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch should look to history before agreeing to stand down candidates in each other’s target seats

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · May 6

Labour risks learning the wrong lessons from last week's elections. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk gives three reasons to ignore the pro-Brexit lobby in their ranks
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...

Labour is learning the wrong lessons

The local election results show Reform is not Labour’s greatest threat—it’s other progressive parties

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Apr 24

Next week's local elections will be more important and more confusing than ever. My blog for Prospect discusses how to separate the signal from the noise www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the...

The local elections are a four-horse race

Labour, the Conservatives, Reform or the Liberal Democrats could win the most votes on 1st May. But which party has the most to gain?

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Apr 16

The conditions that produced the old Labour-Tory duopoly have vanished. Despite last year's landslide, single-party governments are likely to be the exception from now on www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the...

The UK’s Labour-Tory duopoly is over

The latest polls show a tight three-way race in Britain between Labour, Reform and the Conservatives, with the Lib Dems not far behind

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Apr 8

Churchill showed Starmer they. My latest Substack post argues that President Trump is causing big problems, and a big plan is needed to stop him.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/churchill-...

Churchill showed Starmer the way

Trump is causing big problems. A big plan is needed to stop him

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Mar 24

As Rachel Reeves prepares for this week’s Spring Statement, my new Substack argues that she should heed the lessons from Harold Wilson and Clement Attlee, who were both punished for delaying the inevitable.

kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...

How Labour can avoid defeat in 2029

Attlee and Wilson were punished for delaying the inevitable. Starmer can avoid their fate – if he acts fast

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Feb 25

As Keir Starmer prepares to head to Washington, here is what he needs to know aboui Trump's popularity - what the preisdent claims, and the very different truth. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-truth-...

The truth about Trump's popularity

A memo to Keir Starmer as he heads to Washington

kellnerp.substack.com

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Feb 10

Reform vies for first place in Britain’s polls. AfD is set to make big gains in Germany this month. Le Pen could be France’s next President. Mainstream parties need a different strategy to defeat populism. Here is my analysis kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-to-def...

How to defeat populism

Spoiler alert: it won't be easy

kellnerp.substack.com

peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Feb 5

A modest suggestioin for Dionald Trump. Find a new home for the people of Gaza, where the climate is similar, the infrstructure already there, and lots of space. The solution is surely obvious: Texas.

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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · Jan 31

Mainstream parties are in big trouble, and not just in Britain. I have been working with the Tony Blair Institute on a report that argues for a radical change in their strategy: disruption, not continuity. Results from a six-country survey makes clear what they need to do.
bit.ly/3X3c9Yz.

Disruptive Delivery: Meeting the Unmet Demand in Politics

bit.ly

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