Philipp Maier
@pmaier1971.bsky.social
Economic data releases and news, automated with R.
Data from http://fred.stlouisfed.org.
Code/details: http://whyitmatters.netlify.app
All views and errors are mine.
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Transportation indices are volatile, but can serve as leading indicator. In Sep 2025 the Passenger Transportation Services Index stood at 136.2; the Freight Transportation Index stood at 123.7 in Sep 2025 #econsky Details: https://rb.gy/ws6csr
The Truck Tonnage Index fell by -0.87% in Sep 2025. Trucking is a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing over 70% of tonnage carried (incl. manufactured and retail goods). The index is dominated by contract freight with minimal amounts of spot market loads #econsky
Transportation Update: Rail Freight Intermodal Traffic. Intermodal refers to transportation of freight in an intermodal container or vehicle, using multiple modes of transportation (e.g., rail, ship, truck), without any handling of the freight itself when changing modes. #econsky
The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index in Nov 2025 came in at -0.53, down from -0.53 the prior month.Negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average. #econsky
Average US 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage last week at 6.24%, up 0.02 p.p. from prior week. 5/1 ARM at 6.1% #mortgage #househunters #econsky
The Cass Freight Index for Oct 2025 at 0.997. The prior month value was 1.042. This monthly indicator measures freight expenditures and shipments #econsky
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 07 Nov #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
Uncertainty Update: VIX at 17.28; 7-day average of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at 408.5, up 5.9 from the prior week #vix #MarketVolatility #econsky https://tinyurl.com/3bvx9f5m
On 07 Nov the Nominal Emerging Market USD Index stood at 132.4336. Relative to a month ago, this is approx. an increase of 0.5%. Relative to a year ago, USD is about -2.77% lower. The index is weighted against a broad subset of emerging market currencies #exchangerates #econsky
7-day weighted av. for Diesel currently at $3.75, up 3.5 cents from last week. Diesel engines in trucks, trains, boats, and barges transport nearly all products people consume. Relative to 12 months ago, this is a $0.22 increase. #econsky
7-day weighted av. price for gas currently at $3.15, down -1.3 cents from last week. Relative to 12 months ago, this is a -4 cent decrease. #inflation #econsky
On 07 November the Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index stood at 121.7835. Relative to a month ago, this is approx. an increase of 1.05%. Relative to a year ago, USD is about -3.2% lower. The index is weighted against a broad group of trading partners #exchangerate #usd #econsky
Total Assets for all Commercial Banks have decreased from 24490.4012 last week to 24354.6546 on 29 October. Relative to a year ago, this represents an increase of about 3.37%. Evolution of the main asset categories shown in the chart below #commercialbanks #assets #econsky
Corporate Bond Market Update: Using data as of 07 November, Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for bonds with 20+ years maturity is at 5.27% for the AAA (up 0.05p.p. from the prior week). The BAA is at 5.86%. #econsky
Reposted by Philipp Maier
Here’s what a new US-Mexico-Canada trade deal should look like
The old WTO model is dead — sovereign control and national security matter
on.ft.com
Here’s what a new US-Mexico-Canada trade deal should look like on.ft.com/47OrJLW | opinion
At the end of this week, the GDPNow forecast from the Altanta Fed for Q3 2025 stands at at 3.98%. GDPNow is a nowcasting model for GDP growth projecting 13 GDP subcomponents with monthly source data, a factor model and a BVAR. #econsky
The average rate on a U.S. 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming #mortgage on 06 November was at 6.2%. Relative to the prior week, the rate has increased by about 0.04 p.p. #mortgagerates #econsky
5Y Breakeven Inflation Rate at 2.37%, down from 2.4% last week; 10Y Breakeven Inflation at 2.28%. Breakeven inflation uses the difference between Constant Maturity and Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Treasuries to calculate market expectations #inflation #econsky.
10Y #Treasury is at 4.11%, down from 4.17% last week. How are shorter-term interest rates contributing to the change in the yield curve? #interest #econsky https://tinyurl.com/m7pdyyyf
The U.S. Dollars to U.K. Pound Sterling Spot Exchange Rate stood at 1.3141 USD/GBP last week (31 October). Relative to a month ago, this is -2.5% lower. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate has risen by 1.4% #exchangerate #gbp #usd #econsky
Last week (31 October) the U.S. Dollars to Euro Exchange Rate was 1.1541 USD/EUR. Relative to a month ago, this is a decrease of approx. -1.8%. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate is about 6.4% higher. #exchangerate #eur #usd #econsky