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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick
@sambresnick.bsky.social
240 followers 310 following 35 posts
Research Fellow @csetgeorgetown.bsky.social China + Emerging Tech
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Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Dec 31
I'm excited to share my new piece in @foreignaffairs.com, where I argue that the Chinese military faces several political and organizational challenges that could hamper its ability to deploy AI on future battlefields. 1/2

www.foreignaffairs.com/china/obstac...
The Obstacles to China’s AI Power
Why the Chinese military struggles to take advantage of new technology.
www.foreignaffairs.com
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
And thanks to @wsj.com's @joshchin.bsky.social for covering the report this morning!
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
Exclusive | China Is Using the Private Sector to Advance Military AI
A variety of companies and universities is helping the country’s forces to modernize with cutting-edge technology, data shows.
www.wsj.com
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
12/ Read the report here: cset.georgetown.edu/publication/...
Pulling Back the Curtain on China’s Military-Civil Fusion | Center for Security and Emerging Technology
China’s efforts to develop AI-related military capabilities have garnered significant interest in the United States. Drawing on 2,857 AI-related defense contract award notices published between Januar...
cset.georgetown.edu
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
11/ The PLA is tapping both legacy defense giants and a rising class of civilian AI innovators. The U.S. must prepare for a more diffuse, harder-to-target Chinese defense industrial base.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
10/ While this work covers only a small slice of China’s military procurement landscape, it suggests that China’s military-civil fusion strategy is paying dividends.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
9/ For the U.S. and its allies, this complicates research security, export controls, and sanctions. Most of these NTVs/universities are not under U.S. restrictions. Distinguishing between benign and risky ties is harder than ever.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
8/ Our findings reveal that the PLA is diversifying its AI supply chain. SOEs still win the highest-value contracts, but NTVs and civilian institutions are making the ecosystem more agile and competitive.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
7/ Civilian universities are also in the mix. Tsinghua, Shanghai Jiao Tong, and others won AI contracts with direct military applications, from swarm navigation to targeting software.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
6/ One telling example is Flytek Digital (closely linked to iFlytek), which won 20 contracts for AI-enabled speech processing & decision-support algorithms. Other top NTVs include PIESAT (satellites/AI) and Chengdu JOUAV Automation (drones).
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
5/ Most of the NTVs are young. The majority were founded after 2010, and they specialize in dual-use tech, ranging from drones to data fusion. They see both defense and civilian markets as paths to growth.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
4/ BUT nearly ¾ of the suppliers were “nontraditional vendors” (NTVs), or companies with no self-reported state ownership ties. Together, they won 764 contracts, more than SOEs or universities.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
3/ We found that legacy defense players lead AI procurement. State-owned giants like CETC, CASC, and NORINCO, as well as defense-linked universities like the “Seven Sons,” remain the backbone of the PLA’s AI procurement.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
2/ Between Jan 2023–Dec 2024, the PLA issued 2,857 AI-related contract award notices. 1,560 entities won at least one bid. We zeroed in on the 338 suppliers that won multiple contracts.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Sep 3
1/ 🚨 In a new @csetgeorgetown.bsky.social report, Cole Mcfaul, Daniel Chou, and I examine the inner workings of China’s military-civil fusion strategy and AI defense industrial base. Here’s what we found 🧵
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Aug 22
If you read the article, you'd realize we're in fact not arguing China would be able to use Taiwan's fabs to produce chips.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Aug 22
Check out my latest in @lawfaremedia.org with @aidanpowers.bsky.social

t.co/0RBXnVkvQL
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/taiwan-s-silicon-shield-is-turning-into-a-target
t.co
sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Aug 22
5/ Of course, political considerations will be the most important factor in China's Taiwan calculus, but the semiconductor prowess that once shielded Taipei could become a strategic liability by making it a more tempting target.
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Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Aug 22
4/ Export restrictions have choked off China's access to many of these chips, and China is making progress on mature semiconductors. If Washington’s AI advantage grows too steep, China may feel compelled to act—both to reclaim Taiwan and level the AI playing field.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Aug 22
3/ Complicating matters further is the fact that the U.S.–China AI race is heating up, and Taiwan sits at the heart of it. The world’s most advanced AI models rely on the cutting-edge chips produced in Taiwan.
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Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Aug 22
2/ That dynamic is now shifting. Several geopolitical factors are eroding its protective power, including worsening cross‑strait tensions, China's rapid military modernization, and doubts about U.S. willingness to defend Taiwan, among others.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Aug 22
THREAD: Why Taiwan’s “Silicon Shield” might be turning into a target.

1/ For years, Taiwan's dominance in semiconductor production has served as a kind of "silicon shield," a deterrent against Chinese aggression because any conflict could devastate global chip supply chains.
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Reposted by Sam Bresnick
lawfaremedia.org
Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · Aug 7
On Lawfare Daily, @jshermcyber.bsky.social spoke to @sambresnick.bsky.social about his recently published report, “Big Tech in Taiwan,” on 17 companies’ Taiwan entanglements, and how greenfield foreign direct investments, data centers, supply chains, and more expose those companies to Taiwan.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Apr 10
To do this, the U.S. government should work with allies and partners and invest in industries of the future. By integrating world-class hardware with leading software, Washington can fortify its position against global competitors.

END

nationalinterest.org/feature/amer...
America Must Rebuild Its Physical Economy
In order to compete with China and boost growth, the United States must better balance the software and hardware components of its economy.
nationalinterest.org
sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Apr 10
Rebuilding the “physical economy” isn't about recapturing past glory; it's about creating a resilient ecosystem where advanced hardware and innovative software co-evolve to meet the demands of modern warfare and the global market.
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Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Apr 10
Rebalancing is the challenge at hand. To remain competitive, U.S. policymakers must ensure that innovation in software is matched by strength in hardware.
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sambresnick.bsky.social
Sam Bresnick @sambresnick.bsky.social · Apr 10
Future technological breakthroughs, such as AI-powered drones and autonomous vehicles, demand the seamless integration of software with robust hardware production. Without this balance, the U.S. risks falling behind in the global tech competition.
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