Sara Hastings-Simon 🇨🇦
@shastingssimon.bsky.social
17K followers 1.1K following 3.6K posts
Currently on partial medical leave and Associate professor, Dept of Earth, Energy, and Environment, University of Calgary; co-director http://NZERI.ca; energy/carbon/innovation policy + bikes.
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shastingssimon.bsky.social
Hi from Alberta where I’m a professor at University of Calgary in the dept of earth energy and environment. I’m a physicist turned mgmt consultant turned think tanker now researching the energy transition. I love e-bikes and etrikes. And I’m currently on med leave fighting breast cancer.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
Volunteering at the fix it clinic this morning. Keeping clothing out of the landfill is a little but highly satisfying act of resistance 💪
A woman sits at a table behind a sign that says fabric fixers. She is focused on a sewing machine that has a pair of jeans on it.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
New cast on. Another vest. This time with a fun diamond pattern and seed stitch. I guess I will be wearing vests now.

#knitting #petiteknit #esthervest
A few inches of a vest on circular knitting needles. The yarn is off white/cream colour and the pattern of diamonds is starting to show up
shastingssimon.bsky.social
Just please no with the AI

Aside from all the issues with it, this woman should be way more worried than she is.
screenshot from a website for a massage and spa service in Calgary. There is a woman sitting with her eyes closed looking serene and it appears a mountain lion is giving her a massage, or at least standing over her shoulders.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
It also doesn’t seem to give any indication of number of students? (Not that that is the only factor in costs but it plays a role)
shastingssimon.bsky.social
This is the worst because as you say, ppl not on bikes are understandably annoyed that someone isn’t using the bike infrastructure but it’s totally unusable in practice
shastingssimon.bsky.social
I see many things. The ramp is way too narrow and at too much of an angle. The flex posts are obviously in the wrong place and should be not just moved but replaced with a real concrete barrier where the lane starts.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
And fuzzy alpaca vest is done! I quilted the knitting to the flannel lining and it worked very well. I think it will keep the knit from stretching out over time.
#knitting
Fuzzy light tan colour alpaca vest with dark buttons laying flat on a table
shastingssimon.bsky.social
retweeting because this is buried at the end of a too long tweet thread but I believe 100% that overusing warning labels is partially about downloading systemic issues including pollution and failure of health care/public policy onto individuals.

its like the carbon calculation 2.0
shastingssimon.bsky.social
The vast vast vast majority of ppl who see this warning label will never do this calculation. Hell I've done the calculation and I still feel guilty.

And it's also enabling the downloading of systemic issues (health disparities, pollution, etc) on people unfairly.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
phew this was a bit long, sorry. With that I'm done and I think I need to go get a drink 🍺
shastingssimon.bsky.social
The vast vast vast majority of ppl who see this warning label will never do this calculation. Hell I've done the calculation and I still feel guilty.

And it's also enabling the downloading of systemic issues (health disparities, pollution, etc) on people unfairly.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
I think we need to consider the general impact of making people feel bad for how they "caused" their cancer. This is also a real mental distress that will be experienced by 100% of people who get cancer, and in the vast majority of cases it was nothing they did (it was luck, systemic issues, etc)
shastingssimon.bsky.social
So we are labeling beer bottles because of a 1% increase due to moderate drinking but not screening women with a 2-3% risk of developing cancer.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
*sidenote this is based on a flawed study but thats for another thread.

So let's look at the risks.
The risk of being diagnosed with breast cancer before the age of 50 is like 2-3%.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
How so?
The justification* for the recommendation that women in Canada start breast cancer screening at the age of 50 is based on the downside of screening being the worry one has to go through when there is an abnormal finding that might be cancer but isnt. false positives
shastingssimon.bsky.social
This could lead to people discounting risks for cancer that a much higher because they get risk overload (im looking at you CA/prop65). Again out of my wheelhouse but still.

But to come back to breast cancer, we actually recognize the risk of mental worry (someone gets me!_
shastingssimon.bsky.social
Now sure, thats just breast cancer, there are other cancers too, and a risk is a risk, so why wouldn't we want to tell people so they can be aware and reduce their risk?

Well there is a downside to it all. One, if everything is a risk, how do we know what to worry about
shastingssimon.bsky.social
Of course the underlying risk goes up over time, so the risk from drinking does as well. The lifetime risk of developing breast cancer is something like 12%.

So the additional risk of a breast cancer diagnosis from drinking "moderately" is about 1% over your life.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
Now I'm going to do some hand wavy not perfect math but it will get the point across.
My risk of getting diagnosed by that age was a bit less than 1% so lets call it 1%.

That means my risk of getting diagnosed specifically because I enjoy a nice IPA was, generously, 0.1%.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
lets get personal, I got diagnosed with breast cancer in my early 40s. According to the stats I can find my risk of getting diagnosed with breast cancer was "7–10 percent higher", it might have been up to 20% higher if I had drank more heavily than I did.
shastingssimon.bsky.social
disclaimer: I understand alcohol is bad for lots of reasons and I am not qualified to say what kind of general measures that justifies taking.
But when it comes to cancer (again quick googling), I can find the stat that "up to six percent of cancer diagnoses are linked to cancer risk".