Steven L. Taylor
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sltaylor.bsky.social
Steven L. Taylor
@sltaylor.bsky.social

Professor Emeritus of PoliSci and former Dean of Arts & Sciences. My research is focused on comparative democratic institutions.🖖🤘

I write about politics at www.outsidethebeltway.com

Business 49%
Psychology 16%

The game has been an INTfest.

That and the finale was full of “the music will tell you how you should feel about the scene” instead of the, you know, writing and acting cluing you in.

I culled a while back and still have a ridiculous number. I remain ready.

It has become an expensive soap opera.
Same week, y’all.

It was the first thing I thought of when I saw your post--we have all been The Dingus.

In Front of Our Noses: A President Who Calls for the Execution of Members of Congress – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/in-front-of-...
In Front of Our Noses: A President Who Calls for the Execution of Members of Congress – Outside the Beltway
outsidethebeltway.com
If an attractive young woman a third my age didn't want to date me, then why did she ask me for feedback on an economics paper?

by Larry Summers

I mean, is it even political “analysis” if it isn’t horse race analysis?
Best case: The President of the United States knew about a pedophilia ring and did nothing to stop it.

Medium case: He also used his office to protect the perpetrators.

Worst case: Because he was one of the perpetrators.

Northern lights down south in Alabama.

This is like insisting your team would have won the game if it had tried a 99-yard FG. You can insist all day long that it would have worked, but it doesn't change the fact that it can't happen save in some fantasy.

There is absolutely no way to force the GOP to restore the subsidies. I am not saying that it is an unworthy goal, but the reality is that a minority party cannot force the majority in the Senate and House (not to mention the President) to pass and sign legislation they oppose.

More on why it was always going to end this way, and an ongoing reminder about how American parties work.

Nonhierarchical Parties in Action – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/nonhierarchi...

Serious question: what was the shutdown stopping Trump from doing?

I honestly think the Ds would have done well regardless, but I am open to the argument it helped with margins in VA. Still, that moment is over and so that has little to do with the vote to reopen now.

Shutdowns don't work to force majorities to make real concessions.

It Was Always Going to End This Way – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/it-was-alway...
It Was Always Going to End This Way – Outside the Beltway
It all starts with this: I do not believe that there is any real chance for the Democrats to get what they want on healthcare. This is not a moment in which, this time, finally, the hostage-taking minority party is going to get what it wants.
outsidethebeltway.com

Reposted by Steven S. Taylor

The PR was fine. The polling was good. The ask was targeted. And it still didn't matter. You can't win real concessions so the question is whether the base likes a long fight with little to show for it or if it just angers them more because you caved in the end.
Shutting down is the easy part, starting up on your terms very hard. Maybe a lost shutdown fight would bring catharsis, but last time (DACA in 2018) it angered base & public because it was fruitless. Ask would need to be something Rep lawmakers want, not stop all Trump is doing

This largely fits my initial assessment as well.
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.

- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.

- But, just as important...

How is the minority party going to force the majority into that outcome?

But I don’t think the Democrats in the Senate have made any case that they see it as a fight over the regime (nor do I think they see it that way). Again: I wanted them to do so, but they didn’t so I don’t see how this can be assessed as a fight over the regime.

But the Dems never made this fight about fighting autocracy (and I wish they had and argued such back on 10/1). They made it about ACA subsidies and it has become to be about SNAP, ATCs, and gov’t employees. I am not sure what other endpoint was possible than something just like this.

I am open to someone explaining the counter position, but I can’t see how the Dems were ever going to get legislation on the ACA out of this confrontation. This was always about making a point about the GOP and health care. So, point made (along with clear cruelty and lack of caring Trump).

Sincere question: what do you think the Dems could have wrung out of the Reps? While I think the Dems emerge from this shutdown better than I expected, PR-wise, I just can’t see a minority party getting major legislative concessions.

Reposted by Steven S. Taylor

I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.

- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.

- But, just as important...

I must confess that given Argentina’s longterm politics, I find it hard to blame PR for its problems. I do not know enough about Indonesia to intelligently comment. I am honestly not sure I wouldn’t prefer Brazil’s institutional structure, with all its flaws, to ours.

It isn’t like there is some obvious pathway under current institutional parameters for the US to become more democratic without some sort of reform intervention.