Generative AI (GenAI) and Large Language Models (LLMs) are moving into domains once seen as uniquely human—reasoning, synthesis, abstraction, and rhetoric. Addressed to labor economists and informed readers, this paper clarifies what is truly new about LLMs, what is not, and why it matters. Using an analogy to autoregressive models from economics, we explain their stochastic nature, whose fluency is often mistaken for agency. We situate LLMs in the longer history of human–machine outsourcing, from digestion to cognition, and examine disruptive effects on white-collar labor, institutions, and epistemic norms. Risks emerge when synthetic content becomes both product and input, creating feedback loops that erode originality and reliability. Grounding the discussion in conceptual clarity over hype, we argue that while GenAI may substitute for some labor, statistical limits will preserve a key role for human judgment. The question is not only how these tools are used, but which tasks we relinquish and how we reallocate expertise in a new division of cognitive labor.

The job drop’s correlation with the rise of ChatGPT has led some to believe we’re seeing how AI will impact future coding jobs.

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection): Focus Magazin,Tim Harf…

The 14-day month-to-date data for February 2025 shows a 7% year-over-year increase in consumption. This initial “flash estimate” compares the first 14 days of February 2025 with the sam…

Final January 2025 Consumption Data Shows Stronger Growth Than Initial Estimates On January 22, I reported a 5.31% year-over-year increase in consumption based on the first 14 days of January 2025.…

The 14-day month-to-date data for January 2025 shows a 5.31% year-over-year increase in consumption. This initial “flash estimate” compares the first 14 days of January 2025 with the sa…

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection): Focus Magazin,Tim Harf…