Heather Long
@byheatherlong.bsky.social
Economic columnist at Washington Post | Data aficionado | Email: [email protected]
44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in a year (due mainly to Trump's tariffs)
We've never seen anything like this before. Not even in the Great Recession or stagflation era (31% thought they would be worse off in 1 yr in early 1980)
via Uof Michigan Survey of Consumers
We've never seen anything like this before. Not even in the Great Recession or stagflation era (31% thought they would be worse off in 1 yr in early 1980)
via Uof Michigan Survey of Consumers
April 25, 2025 at 3:56 PM
44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in a year (due mainly to Trump's tariffs)
We've never seen anything like this before. Not even in the Great Recession or stagflation era (31% thought they would be worse off in 1 yr in early 1980)
via Uof Michigan Survey of Consumers
We've never seen anything like this before. Not even in the Great Recession or stagflation era (31% thought they would be worse off in 1 yr in early 1980)
via Uof Michigan Survey of Consumers
Fed Chair Powell key takeaways:
1) Recession risk "has moved up, but it’s not high."
2) Don't expect May rate cut. "We’re not going to be in any hurry to move"
3) "Uncertainty is remarkably high" he says over and over
4) Fed is watching big drop in sentiment, but "the hard data are pretty solid"
1) Recession risk "has moved up, but it’s not high."
2) Don't expect May rate cut. "We’re not going to be in any hurry to move"
3) "Uncertainty is remarkably high" he says over and over
4) Fed is watching big drop in sentiment, but "the hard data are pretty solid"
March 19, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Fed Chair Powell key takeaways:
1) Recession risk "has moved up, but it’s not high."
2) Don't expect May rate cut. "We’re not going to be in any hurry to move"
3) "Uncertainty is remarkably high" he says over and over
4) Fed is watching big drop in sentiment, but "the hard data are pretty solid"
1) Recession risk "has moved up, but it’s not high."
2) Don't expect May rate cut. "We’re not going to be in any hurry to move"
3) "Uncertainty is remarkably high" he says over and over
4) Fed is watching big drop in sentiment, but "the hard data are pretty solid"
Big congrats to @kedseconomist.com on the launch of her great new podcast "Optimist Economy."
Kathryn doesn't just talk about problems; She puts forward ideas to solve them.
Her work is inspiring and I always leave w/new takeaways
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
Kathryn doesn't just talk about problems; She puts forward ideas to solve them.
Her work is inspiring and I always leave w/new takeaways
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
March 18, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Big congrats to @kedseconomist.com on the launch of her great new podcast "Optimist Economy."
Kathryn doesn't just talk about problems; She puts forward ideas to solve them.
Her work is inspiring and I always leave w/new takeaways
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
Kathryn doesn't just talk about problems; She puts forward ideas to solve them.
Her work is inspiring and I always leave w/new takeaways
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
Must read from reporting today from @crampell.bsky.social & @ashendruk.com
How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
"The Trump administration is deleting taxpayer-funded data — information that Americans use to make sense of the world."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
"The Trump administration is deleting taxpayer-funded data — information that Americans use to make sense of the world."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
March 11, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Must read from reporting today from @crampell.bsky.social & @ashendruk.com
How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
"The Trump administration is deleting taxpayer-funded data — information that Americans use to make sense of the world."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
"The Trump administration is deleting taxpayer-funded data — information that Americans use to make sense of the world."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
NEWS: I'm excited to announce that I'll be interviewing Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, April 4 at 11:25am alongside
James Nelson at the #SABEW25 conference.
There's much to discuss!
Join us at this great event for business and economic journalists, journalism students and PR professionals.
James Nelson at the #SABEW25 conference.
There's much to discuss!
Join us at this great event for business and economic journalists, journalism students and PR professionals.
March 10, 2025 at 6:38 PM
NEWS: I'm excited to announce that I'll be interviewing Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, April 4 at 11:25am alongside
James Nelson at the #SABEW25 conference.
There's much to discuss!
Join us at this great event for business and economic journalists, journalism students and PR professionals.
James Nelson at the #SABEW25 conference.
There's much to discuss!
Join us at this great event for business and economic journalists, journalism students and PR professionals.
Reposted by Heather Long
Elon Musk said DOGE made a mistake by cutting USAID’s Ebola prevention but it had been “restored.”
That’s not true, current and former officials told me and @johnphudson.bsky.social.
“There have been no efforts to ‘turn on’” Ebola prevention, said Nidhi Bouri, who oversaw team until January.
That’s not true, current and former officials told me and @johnphudson.bsky.social.
“There have been no efforts to ‘turn on’” Ebola prevention, said Nidhi Bouri, who oversaw team until January.
Musk claims DOGE ‘restored’ Ebola prevention effort. Officials disagree.
USAID’s initiatives to fight Ebola and other diseases have been gutted, current and former agency officials said.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 26, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Elon Musk said DOGE made a mistake by cutting USAID’s Ebola prevention but it had been “restored.”
That’s not true, current and former officials told me and @johnphudson.bsky.social.
“There have been no efforts to ‘turn on’” Ebola prevention, said Nidhi Bouri, who oversaw team until January.
That’s not true, current and former officials told me and @johnphudson.bsky.social.
“There have been no efforts to ‘turn on’” Ebola prevention, said Nidhi Bouri, who oversaw team until January.
Most on this site know that federal workers are good people who work hard.
But it's striking to see the data.
Federal workers put in more hours a week than anyone except military and self-employed.
Federal workers take fewer days off than almost any others
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
But it's striking to see the data.
Federal workers put in more hours a week than anyone except military and self-employed.
Federal workers take fewer days off than almost any others
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
February 24, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Most on this site know that federal workers are good people who work hard.
But it's striking to see the data.
Federal workers put in more hours a week than anyone except military and self-employed.
Federal workers take fewer days off than almost any others
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
But it's striking to see the data.
Federal workers put in more hours a week than anyone except military and self-employed.
Federal workers take fewer days off than almost any others
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Important post from one of former Gov. Cuomo’s victims.
TOP DEM POLLSTER: The more New Yorkers learn about the MONSTER that is ANDREW CUOMO the less they will accept him as their mayor.
So many of us New Yorkers are ready to show who he is.
An abuser. A liar. A crook who constantly helps himself at the expense of New Yorkers. t.co/REla7UwBrn
So many of us New Yorkers are ready to show who he is.
An abuser. A liar. A crook who constantly helps himself at the expense of New Yorkers. t.co/REla7UwBrn
https://www.nydailynews.com/2025/02/21/reports-of-cuomos-rebirth-are-much-exaggerated/?share=bo2rycreetpaowtd5rrs
t.co
February 21, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Important post from one of former Gov. Cuomo’s victims.
Reposted by Heather Long
Lmao a Nobel Prize winner finds the solution to the global fertility collapse is for men to do the dishes and laundry more often -- more or less the precise opposite of the trad prescription
Fabulous @byheatherlong.bsky.social essay
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Fabulous @byheatherlong.bsky.social essay
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | A Nobel Prize winner decodes why people aren’t having kids
Economist Claudia Goldin finds it largely comes down to societal expectations of how much men should do at home.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 18, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Lmao a Nobel Prize winner finds the solution to the global fertility collapse is for men to do the dishes and laundry more often -- more or less the precise opposite of the trad prescription
Fabulous @byheatherlong.bsky.social essay
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Fabulous @byheatherlong.bsky.social essay
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Take a look at this chart.
We've been experiencing what I call "whack-a-mole" inflation. There have been many eye-popping spikes (i.e. eggs). This has a deep psychological impact. They fear what will spike next.
This backdrop makes Trump's tariffs even worse
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
We've been experiencing what I call "whack-a-mole" inflation. There have been many eye-popping spikes (i.e. eggs). This has a deep psychological impact. They fear what will spike next.
This backdrop makes Trump's tariffs even worse
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
February 14, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Take a look at this chart.
We've been experiencing what I call "whack-a-mole" inflation. There have been many eye-popping spikes (i.e. eggs). This has a deep psychological impact. They fear what will spike next.
This backdrop makes Trump's tariffs even worse
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
We've been experiencing what I call "whack-a-mole" inflation. There have been many eye-popping spikes (i.e. eggs). This has a deep psychological impact. They fear what will spike next.
This backdrop makes Trump's tariffs even worse
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Reposted by Heather Long
Former BLS commissioner Erica Groshen on how the policy change to Schedule F that Trump & #Project2025 advocate would destroy the credibility of the federal statistical system.
Her comment on LinkedIn
www.linkedin.com/posts/erica-...
...
Her comment on LinkedIn
www.linkedin.com/posts/erica-...
...
October 7, 2024 at 12:13 AM
Former BLS commissioner Erica Groshen on how the policy change to Schedule F that Trump & #Project2025 advocate would destroy the credibility of the federal statistical system.
Her comment on LinkedIn
www.linkedin.com/posts/erica-...
...
Her comment on LinkedIn
www.linkedin.com/posts/erica-...
...
You can really see the high monthly inflation gain in January (0.5%) on the bar chart. [Forecasts were for just a 0.3% gain]
Why?
-Gas prices up
-Energy/utility prices up
-Food prices (esp. groceries) up
-Transportation costs up
-Rent still rising (albeit much more slowly now)
Why?
-Gas prices up
-Energy/utility prices up
-Food prices (esp. groceries) up
-Transportation costs up
-Rent still rising (albeit much more slowly now)
February 12, 2025 at 1:47 PM
You can really see the high monthly inflation gain in January (0.5%) on the bar chart. [Forecasts were for just a 0.3% gain]
Why?
-Gas prices up
-Energy/utility prices up
-Food prices (esp. groceries) up
-Transportation costs up
-Rent still rising (albeit much more slowly now)
Why?
-Gas prices up
-Energy/utility prices up
-Food prices (esp. groceries) up
-Transportation costs up
-Rent still rising (albeit much more slowly now)
JUST IN: Inflation ticked back up to 3% (y/y) in January --> the highest since June. The monthly gain was 0.5% (above expectations).
Rent made up 30% of the increase. Gas and food also contributed.
"Core CPI," which excludes food and gas, rose 3.3%. Core CPI has basically stalled since June.
Rent made up 30% of the increase. Gas and food also contributed.
"Core CPI," which excludes food and gas, rose 3.3%. Core CPI has basically stalled since June.
February 12, 2025 at 1:39 PM
JUST IN: Inflation ticked back up to 3% (y/y) in January --> the highest since June. The monthly gain was 0.5% (above expectations).
Rent made up 30% of the increase. Gas and food also contributed.
"Core CPI," which excludes food and gas, rose 3.3%. Core CPI has basically stalled since June.
Rent made up 30% of the increase. Gas and food also contributed.
"Core CPI," which excludes food and gas, rose 3.3%. Core CPI has basically stalled since June.
Former Treasury official Natasha Sarin writes "there is no legitimate reason for [Elon Musk/DOGE] to have this access" to the federal payment system.
Sarin outlines just how scary this is
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Sarin outlines just how scary this is
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Elon Musk has your Social Security number. It’s as scary as it sounds.
There is no legitimate reason for the ‘DOGE’ to have access to the federal payment system.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 5, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Former Treasury official Natasha Sarin writes "there is no legitimate reason for [Elon Musk/DOGE] to have this access" to the federal payment system.
Sarin outlines just how scary this is
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Sarin outlines just how scary this is
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Reposted by Heather Long
New and important: we built a federal expenditure tracker. All expenditure line items that are available on the Daily Treasury Statement.
USAID was zeroed out on 1/28 and has been at zero ever since.
www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
#EconSky
USAID was zeroed out on 1/28 and has been at zero ever since.
www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
#EconSky
February 3, 2025 at 9:41 PM
New and important: we built a federal expenditure tracker. All expenditure line items that are available on the Daily Treasury Statement.
USAID was zeroed out on 1/28 and has been at zero ever since.
www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
#EconSky
USAID was zeroed out on 1/28 and has been at zero ever since.
www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
#EconSky
Reposted by Heather Long
I'm keeping a running list of disappearing federal data in the 🧵 below. If there are others I missed let me know. crampell[at]washpost[dot]com or Signal username crampell.13
List of CDC information that appears to have been taken down so far:
1. CDC Atlas
2. CDC Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System
3. HRSA Target
4. Language removed for LGBT work
5. CDC Social Vulnerability Index
1. CDC Atlas
2. CDC Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System
3. HRSA Target
4. Language removed for LGBT work
5. CDC Social Vulnerability Index
January 31, 2025 at 7:05 PM
I'm keeping a running list of disappearing federal data in the 🧵 below. If there are others I missed let me know. crampell[at]washpost[dot]com or Signal username crampell.13
President Trump's trade war is here.
Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada, Mexico and China can do to stop it.
1) Tariffs will be enacted on Feb. 1
2) Tariffs on oil and gas by Feb. 18
3) Oil tariff could be 10%
4) He said there "absolutely" will be tariffs on Europe, too.
Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada, Mexico and China can do to stop it.
1) Tariffs will be enacted on Feb. 1
2) Tariffs on oil and gas by Feb. 18
3) Oil tariff could be 10%
4) He said there "absolutely" will be tariffs on Europe, too.
January 31, 2025 at 9:59 PM
President Trump's trade war is here.
Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada, Mexico and China can do to stop it.
1) Tariffs will be enacted on Feb. 1
2) Tariffs on oil and gas by Feb. 18
3) Oil tariff could be 10%
4) He said there "absolutely" will be tariffs on Europe, too.
Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada, Mexico and China can do to stop it.
1) Tariffs will be enacted on Feb. 1
2) Tariffs on oil and gas by Feb. 18
3) Oil tariff could be 10%
4) He said there "absolutely" will be tariffs on Europe, too.
This is alarming: The highest career official at Treasury is leaving after a clash w/Elon Musk allies over access to sensitive payment systems.
Those payment systems distribute ~$6 trillion in US gov't payments.
Only a few people are supposed to have access to that payment system.
Those payment systems distribute ~$6 trillion in US gov't payments.
Only a few people are supposed to have access to that payment system.
January 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
This is alarming: The highest career official at Treasury is leaving after a clash w/Elon Musk allies over access to sensitive payment systems.
Those payment systems distribute ~$6 trillion in US gov't payments.
Only a few people are supposed to have access to that payment system.
Those payment systems distribute ~$6 trillion in US gov't payments.
Only a few people are supposed to have access to that payment system.
Just In: Progress on inflation is stalling.
PCE inflation was up 2.6% in 2024. PCE excluding food and energy was up 2.8%. Both metrics have risen slightly since the summer.
Now President Trump is about to add tariffs on Mexico and Canada that will almost certainly raise prices.
PCE inflation was up 2.6% in 2024. PCE excluding food and energy was up 2.8%. Both metrics have risen slightly since the summer.
Now President Trump is about to add tariffs on Mexico and Canada that will almost certainly raise prices.
January 31, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Just In: Progress on inflation is stalling.
PCE inflation was up 2.6% in 2024. PCE excluding food and energy was up 2.8%. Both metrics have risen slightly since the summer.
Now President Trump is about to add tariffs on Mexico and Canada that will almost certainly raise prices.
PCE inflation was up 2.6% in 2024. PCE excluding food and energy was up 2.8%. Both metrics have risen slightly since the summer.
Now President Trump is about to add tariffs on Mexico and Canada that will almost certainly raise prices.
Reposted by Heather Long
Again, universal 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico would hit ~$900B of US imports, ~30% of all goods brought into the country, including pretty devastating impacts on US energy, vehicle, & food supply chains
Prices for gas & groceries like tomatoes/beer/cabbages would jump
Prices for gas & groceries like tomatoes/beer/cabbages would jump
January 31, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Again, universal 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico would hit ~$900B of US imports, ~30% of all goods brought into the country, including pretty devastating impacts on US energy, vehicle, & food supply chains
Prices for gas & groceries like tomatoes/beer/cabbages would jump
Prices for gas & groceries like tomatoes/beer/cabbages would jump
Reposted by Heather Long
WAPO: “.. Just 24 hours before the collision of American Eagle Flight 5342 and an Army Black Hawk .. another jet trying to land there had to make a second approach after a helicopter appeared near its flight path, according to an audio recording ..”
www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...
Live updates: Day before D.C. plane crash, another jet had to abort first landing at Reagan National
The American Airlines plane operating as American Eagle Flight 5342 collided with an Army Black Hawk helicopter near Reagan National Airport.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 30, 2025 at 11:41 PM
WAPO: “.. Just 24 hours before the collision of American Eagle Flight 5342 and an Army Black Hawk .. another jet trying to land there had to make a second approach after a helicopter appeared near its flight path, according to an audio recording ..”
www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...
Wow. Look at the big surge in Americans buying "durable goods" in Q4 2024.
Was that people trying to get ahead of tariffs??
We heard many anecdotes about that happening, but it's striking to see a 12.1% surge in durable goods in Q4.
Was that people trying to get ahead of tariffs??
We heard many anecdotes about that happening, but it's striking to see a 12.1% surge in durable goods in Q4.
January 30, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Wow. Look at the big surge in Americans buying "durable goods" in Q4 2024.
Was that people trying to get ahead of tariffs??
We heard many anecdotes about that happening, but it's striking to see a 12.1% surge in durable goods in Q4.
Was that people trying to get ahead of tariffs??
We heard many anecdotes about that happening, but it's striking to see a 12.1% surge in durable goods in Q4.
Here's the deeper dive on Q4 GDP growth:
US consumer spending is driving almost all the growth. Gov't is a very small contributor now.
Note: Biz investment was a drag on Q4 GDP (due to a big decline in equipment purchases). We want to see this pick up in 2025.
US consumer spending is driving almost all the growth. Gov't is a very small contributor now.
Note: Biz investment was a drag on Q4 GDP (due to a big decline in equipment purchases). We want to see this pick up in 2025.
January 30, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Here's the deeper dive on Q4 GDP growth:
US consumer spending is driving almost all the growth. Gov't is a very small contributor now.
Note: Biz investment was a drag on Q4 GDP (due to a big decline in equipment purchases). We want to see this pick up in 2025.
US consumer spending is driving almost all the growth. Gov't is a very small contributor now.
Note: Biz investment was a drag on Q4 GDP (due to a big decline in equipment purchases). We want to see this pick up in 2025.
Just in: The US economy grew 2.8% in 2024, another year of strong growth.
President Trump inherited a very good economy.
Q4 growth was 2.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending.
GDP growth under Biden (adj. for inflation)
6.1% in 2021
2.5% in 2022
2.9% in 2023
2.8% in 2024
President Trump inherited a very good economy.
Q4 growth was 2.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending.
GDP growth under Biden (adj. for inflation)
6.1% in 2021
2.5% in 2022
2.9% in 2023
2.8% in 2024
January 30, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Just in: The US economy grew 2.8% in 2024, another year of strong growth.
President Trump inherited a very good economy.
Q4 growth was 2.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending.
GDP growth under Biden (adj. for inflation)
6.1% in 2021
2.5% in 2022
2.9% in 2023
2.8% in 2024
President Trump inherited a very good economy.
Q4 growth was 2.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending.
GDP growth under Biden (adj. for inflation)
6.1% in 2021
2.5% in 2022
2.9% in 2023
2.8% in 2024
NEWS: Fed Chair Powell says he has "had no contact" with President Trump.
[Remember in Davos last week Trump demanded that interest rates should decline in the US -- and around the world ]
[Remember in Davos last week Trump demanded that interest rates should decline in the US -- and around the world ]
January 29, 2025 at 7:39 PM
NEWS: Fed Chair Powell says he has "had no contact" with President Trump.
[Remember in Davos last week Trump demanded that interest rates should decline in the US -- and around the world ]
[Remember in Davos last week Trump demanded that interest rates should decline in the US -- and around the world ]