@chelseachemist1.bsky.social
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chelseachemist1.bsky.social
Yes but the point I’m making is that the party quite literally leading the polls at the moment on 30 odd percent are the ones for this nonsense! Given their (stupid) red lines I don’t see it being actually opened until the next parliament, but they should as you say start making the case for it now
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
Yes but that’s not the same as the levels of support for rejoin (sadly!).
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
They’ve briefed about bringing NI down and increasing income tax by the same amount, how much does that raise?
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
It’s cowardly but under FPTP I can understand it, there’s still a large enough bloc out there for this nonsense. Of course the reality is that the next parliament could conclude in 9 years time, during which even larger demographic shifts are going to occur
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
It does strike me as a move they need to think about making if anything given the possibility of needing other parties to prop them up in the next parliament.
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
To be fair can you imagine an all time Scandy 11? Him and ibrahimovic up top would have any centre halves bouncing off them
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
I’m guessing Dr Mahatir Mohamad of Malaysia has got to be the oldest elected head of a government ever, he served as PM in his second stint from 93-95 years old nearly 20 years after his first go at the job
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
I’ll admit it does get claustrophobic after a while if you can’t leave (SG that is), spent 16 months not able to leave because of covid border restrictions but I’d willingly signed up to that to be fair! Also Dubai is even more immigrant (it’s like 10% citizens if I recall) whereas SG is 50:50
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
I didn’t particularly like those in Singapore who had what I’d call an “expat” attitude, couldn’t wrap my ahead around those who lived in Holland Village. Why would you want to live in an enclave when you’re on the other side of the world?
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
Evergreen point about literally all uk polling currently
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
No but another 3-4 years of local and devolved elections in which Reform are ahead of them will definitely allow the conservatives to trot out the “Reform are a wasted vote” line to much laughter
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
I mean I know it’s an overused historical point to the point of memery, but Chamberlain was nominated in 1939 for the Munich Agreement!
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
Yeah that’s the thing people who think it’s some conspiracy either way don’t seem to get. How on earth could you weigh up this deal 48hrs before the announcement with no actual knowledge of if it holds in the near future? (Which I obviously hope it does!)
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
Yes the problems you’re quite rightly outlining are in the bottom left hand corner of this graph, you’re right that there was a peak in the late 80s, but even that was a better scenario than the modern day. It doesn’t mean it was easy, it means it was easier.
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
If you’re talking about 25K in 1980 you do understand that adjusted for inflation that’s 108K in today’s money right?
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
Hi Mark, I have a simple proposition for you, would you like to pay 18% interest on a Freddo, for which you’ve conveniently forgotten the existence of MIRAS. Or would you like to pay 5% on a loan of hundreds of thousands of pounds? Pick wisely
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
In theory that error should decrease as the parliament goes on, but I think it’s probably overstating the actual conservative position given disproportionately an amount of their current voters won’t be here to vote in 2029
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
They have an older stratified sample and I’d be interested to know how much error that introduces if the election is the full 4 years away
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
Not just that, but for many that one bed flat is unviable because the service charges keep doubling every day ending in Y
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
Okay so I hope you know the words majority (50%+1) and minority (50%-1). A plurality occurs when there is a split such that no one group gets a majority of views but is the largest group. So for example you could say that Labour won a plurality of votes at the last election
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
Do you know what the word plurality means?
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
Which is incredibly common amongst basically all of my friends, but that doesn’t mean it’s common across the population! Let me try and explain another way, I can count on one hand mates/acquaintances that didn’t go to university, but only half of my cohort actually goes!
chelseachemist1.bsky.social
The original post you’re responding to is data! What do you think YouGov deals in?