Calum Weir
@cwp-weir.bsky.social
Research Manager at Labour Together π - Opinions all my own - He/Him
Hahahaha, very kind! Trends π trends π trends π
February 12, 2026 at 9:26 PM
Hahahaha, very kind! Trends π trends π trends π
For the craic - The trendines for each pollster from 2024 to now
February 12, 2026 at 9:16 PM
For the craic - The trendines for each pollster from 2024 to now
Bought in a wee antiques market today - When did we stop calling political rows/scandals βThe X Affairβ and start using β-gateβ?
January 31, 2026 at 8:52 PM
Bought in a wee antiques market today - When did we stop calling political rows/scandals βThe X Affairβ and start using β-gateβ?
Reposted by Calum Weir
We keeping hearing that polls show immigration is a top priority for voters - but how are such polls designed, and does tweaking the way we ask the question affect the answer?
Fascinating chat with Calum Weir of @labourtogether.bsky.social on just that
www.newstatesman.com/podcasts/pol...
Fascinating chat with Calum Weir of @labourtogether.bsky.social on just that
www.newstatesman.com/podcasts/pol...
How much does immigration actually matter to the public?
Shabana Mahmood was back in the Commons today outlining her controversial immigration plans.
www.newstatesman.com
November 21, 2025 at 10:26 AM
We keeping hearing that polls show immigration is a top priority for voters - but how are such polls designed, and does tweaking the way we ask the question affect the answer?
Fascinating chat with Calum Weir of @labourtogether.bsky.social on just that
www.newstatesman.com/podcasts/pol...
Fascinating chat with Calum Weir of @labourtogether.bsky.social on just that
www.newstatesman.com/podcasts/pol...
Ah, thanks Denis and good luck!
We showed four options, four times out of 16 possible options
We showed four options, four times out of 16 possible options
November 17, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Ah, thanks Denis and good luck!
We showed four options, four times out of 16 possible options
We showed four options, four times out of 16 possible options
Thatβs very kind, thanks Christina!!
November 17, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Thatβs very kind, thanks Christina!!
So I think this would be the natural follow-on from this research to be fair!
It's a bit harder to say with some of the more experimental techniques because base sizes can be a little small, but we did find this for the open-ends we ran (again, with a reminder that this skews towards salience!):
It's a bit harder to say with some of the more experimental techniques because base sizes can be a little small, but we did find this for the open-ends we ran (again, with a reminder that this skews towards salience!):
November 17, 2025 at 11:58 AM
So I think this would be the natural follow-on from this research to be fair!
It's a bit harder to say with some of the more experimental techniques because base sizes can be a little small, but we did find this for the open-ends we ran (again, with a reminder that this skews towards salience!):
It's a bit harder to say with some of the more experimental techniques because base sizes can be a little small, but we did find this for the open-ends we ran (again, with a reminder that this skews towards salience!):
Not too simplistic at all!
I think this is pretty much it, and basically that polling will always make it easier to see the former than the latter!
I think this is pretty much it, and basically that polling will always make it easier to see the former than the latter!
November 17, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Not too simplistic at all!
I think this is pretty much it, and basically that polling will always make it easier to see the former than the latter!
I think this is pretty much it, and basically that polling will always make it easier to see the former than the latter!
Ach, it's just a case of this creaky old clock trying to get the time right at least once!
November 17, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Ach, it's just a case of this creaky old clock trying to get the time right at least once!
Overall, we find that immigration looks important in polls because itβs highly salient, not because it outranks daily concerns.
Polling captures the salience, but requires a bit of digging to see the whole picture of public priority.
You can read more here!: www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...
Polling captures the salience, but requires a bit of digging to see the whole picture of public priority.
You can read more here!: www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...
Measuring What Matters β Labour Together
Knowing what issues are most important to the public is the bedrock of understanding voters. Ironically, its own importance canβt go understated. This report applies some overdue methodological experi...
www.labourtogether.uk
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Overall, we find that immigration looks important in polls because itβs highly salient, not because it outranks daily concerns.
Polling captures the salience, but requires a bit of digging to see the whole picture of public priority.
You can read more here!: www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...
Polling captures the salience, but requires a bit of digging to see the whole picture of public priority.
You can read more here!: www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...
In a similar vein, a we did a MaxDiff.
MaxDiff asks people to pick the most and least important issue from small sets.
It reveals a large group who mark immigration as βleast important,β even while its overall salience stays high. In relative terms, the Cost of Living is much more important here.
MaxDiff asks people to pick the most and least important issue from small sets.
It reveals a large group who mark immigration as βleast important,β even while its overall salience stays high. In relative terms, the Cost of Living is much more important here.
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
In a similar vein, a we did a MaxDiff.
MaxDiff asks people to pick the most and least important issue from small sets.
It reveals a large group who mark immigration as βleast important,β even while its overall salience stays high. In relative terms, the Cost of Living is much more important here.
MaxDiff asks people to pick the most and least important issue from small sets.
It reveals a large group who mark immigration as βleast important,β even while its overall salience stays high. In relative terms, the Cost of Living is much more important here.
We then ran a pairwise experiment.
They avoid this some of the issues around salience by forcing respondents to choose between two issues at a time, producing a clearer hierarchy.
When we use this method, Cost of Living concerns dominate, with immigration and asylum much lower.
They avoid this some of the issues around salience by forcing respondents to choose between two issues at a time, producing a clearer hierarchy.
When we use this method, Cost of Living concerns dominate, with immigration and asylum much lower.
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
We then ran a pairwise experiment.
They avoid this some of the issues around salience by forcing respondents to choose between two issues at a time, producing a clearer hierarchy.
When we use this method, Cost of Living concerns dominate, with immigration and asylum much lower.
They avoid this some of the issues around salience by forcing respondents to choose between two issues at a time, producing a clearer hierarchy.
When we use this method, Cost of Living concerns dominate, with immigration and asylum much lower.
We then stuck with open-ends but changed the question a little.
Most pollsters ask about issues facing the country.
When we ask about people's day-to-day lives, the change is starkly different.
Immigration is only mentioned in a tenth of results. A majority mentioned the Cost of Living.
Most pollsters ask about issues facing the country.
When we ask about people's day-to-day lives, the change is starkly different.
Immigration is only mentioned in a tenth of results. A majority mentioned the Cost of Living.
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
We then stuck with open-ends but changed the question a little.
Most pollsters ask about issues facing the country.
When we ask about people's day-to-day lives, the change is starkly different.
Immigration is only mentioned in a tenth of results. A majority mentioned the Cost of Living.
Most pollsters ask about issues facing the country.
When we ask about people's day-to-day lives, the change is starkly different.
Immigration is only mentioned in a tenth of results. A majority mentioned the Cost of Living.
Next is open-ending.
Shown here from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social, immigration also tops the list even when asking open-ends.
We ran our own version of this and found that responses show that mentions of immigration reflect salience rather than a fixed attitude: people raise it for different reasons.
Shown here from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social, immigration also tops the list even when asking open-ends.
We ran our own version of this and found that responses show that mentions of immigration reflect salience rather than a fixed attitude: people raise it for different reasons.
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Next is open-ending.
Shown here from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social, immigration also tops the list even when asking open-ends.
We ran our own version of this and found that responses show that mentions of immigration reflect salience rather than a fixed attitude: people raise it for different reasons.
Shown here from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social, immigration also tops the list even when asking open-ends.
We ran our own version of this and found that responses show that mentions of immigration reflect salience rather than a fixed attitude: people raise it for different reasons.
First is wording and options.
In an experiment we conducted with @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, when respondents were shown the 'cost of living' as an option, it drove the importance of immigration down a bit.
Immigration is salient, but unlike an issue like health, more prone to fluctuating.
In an experiment we conducted with @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, when respondents were shown the 'cost of living' as an option, it drove the importance of immigration down a bit.
Immigration is salient, but unlike an issue like health, more prone to fluctuating.
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
First is wording and options.
In an experiment we conducted with @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, when respondents were shown the 'cost of living' as an option, it drove the importance of immigration down a bit.
Immigration is salient, but unlike an issue like health, more prone to fluctuating.
In an experiment we conducted with @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, when respondents were shown the 'cost of living' as an option, it drove the importance of immigration down a bit.
Immigration is salient, but unlike an issue like health, more prone to fluctuating.
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
Reposted by Calum Weir
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the publicβs outlook argues Labour Together's @cwp-weir.bsky.social
βBread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?β β LabourList
The most important part of the body politic is the stomach. The eyes can be distracted, the ears can be blasted with noise, but theβ¦
labourlist.org
November 16, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the publicβs outlook argues Labour Together's @cwp-weir.bsky.social
Reposted by Calum Weir
This is a great post on how to understand whatβs important to people - itβs shocking that this might be news to political decision makers
As immigration dominates the brief this morning, hereβs my two cents on the salience vs. the importance of the issue:
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
'Bread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?' - LabourList
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the publicβs outlook argues Labour Together's Calum Weir.
labourlist.org
November 16, 2025 at 3:11 PM
This is a great post on how to understand whatβs important to people - itβs shocking that this might be news to political decision makers
Ah, thank you greatly, Andrew!
November 16, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Ah, thank you greatly, Andrew!
Reposted by Calum Weir
Essential reading from Calum Weir - on findings from some innovative polling from Labour Together.
His words
"Immigration is salient, polarising and important.
Cost of living is foundational, unifying and in some ways, even more important."
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
@cwp-weir.bsky.social
His words
"Immigration is salient, polarising and important.
Cost of living is foundational, unifying and in some ways, even more important."
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
@cwp-weir.bsky.social
'Bread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?' - LabourList
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the publicβs outlook argues Labour Together's Calum Weir.
labourlist.org
November 16, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Essential reading from Calum Weir - on findings from some innovative polling from Labour Together.
His words
"Immigration is salient, polarising and important.
Cost of living is foundational, unifying and in some ways, even more important."
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
@cwp-weir.bsky.social
His words
"Immigration is salient, polarising and important.
Cost of living is foundational, unifying and in some ways, even more important."
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
@cwp-weir.bsky.social
Nevermind Catullus!!
November 16, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Nevermind Catullus!!
Reposted by Calum Weir
Top top work here from @cwp-weir.bsky.social
As immigration dominates the brief this morning, hereβs my two cents on the salience vs. the importance of the issue:
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
'Bread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?' - LabourList
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the publicβs outlook argues Labour Together's Calum Weir.
labourlist.org
November 16, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Top top work here from @cwp-weir.bsky.social
Finding increasingly bizarre ways to justify my Classics undergrad
November 16, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Finding increasingly bizarre ways to justify my Classics undergrad
Very kind Mark, thank you!
November 16, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Very kind Mark, thank you!
Reposted by Calum Weir
Fascinating piece.
November 16, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Fascinating piece.