John Helin
@jjhelin.bsky.social
Journalist, Fact checker @ http://HS.fi
Ukraine War Analysis with Black Bird Group
Political History at the University of Helsinki
📞 +358413106215
✉️ [email protected]
Ukraine War Analysis with Black Bird Group
Political History at the University of Helsinki
📞 +358413106215
✉️ [email protected]
Reposted by John Helin
Reposted by John Helin
Klo 17 alkaen faktantarkistajat kokoontuivat läpivalaisemaan faktantarkistuksen tilaa Suomessa. Puhujina Faktabaarin @mikkovsalo.bsky.social, @pipsahavula.bsky.social ja @joonasporsti.bsky.social sekä @afpfactcheck.bsky.social Anna Hollingsworth ja Black Bird Groupin @jjhelin.bsky.social. 3/5
April 4, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Klo 17 alkaen faktantarkistajat kokoontuivat läpivalaisemaan faktantarkistuksen tilaa Suomessa. Puhujina Faktabaarin @mikkovsalo.bsky.social, @pipsahavula.bsky.social ja @joonasporsti.bsky.social sekä @afpfactcheck.bsky.social Anna Hollingsworth ja Black Bird Groupin @jjhelin.bsky.social. 3/5
Last Thursday I whipped up a SITREP for the Kursk salient.
I posted it on X, but completely forgot to do so on BlueSky, which I regret.
The thread would be slightly outdated, but a longer writeup of the situation and UA withdrawal can be found on our Substack.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
I posted it on X, but completely forgot to do so on BlueSky, which I regret.
The thread would be slightly outdated, but a longer writeup of the situation and UA withdrawal can be found on our Substack.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Ukraine withdraws from Kursk
SITREP 13.03.2025
substack.com
March 17, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Last Thursday I whipped up a SITREP for the Kursk salient.
I posted it on X, but completely forgot to do so on BlueSky, which I regret.
The thread would be slightly outdated, but a longer writeup of the situation and UA withdrawal can be found on our Substack.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
I posted it on X, but completely forgot to do so on BlueSky, which I regret.
The thread would be slightly outdated, but a longer writeup of the situation and UA withdrawal can be found on our Substack.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Reposted by John Helin
“It’s nearing the end of the republic but we’re cheering for the pickled egg.”
A wonderful piece of writing from @mollymckew.bsky.social
x.com/mollymckew/s...
A wonderful piece of writing from @mollymckew.bsky.social
x.com/mollymckew/s...
Molly McKew on X: "A reflection on the madness, cynicism, selfishness, and absurdity A decade of information manipulation has left us a nation of cripples on our own psychological defense It’s nearing the end of the republic but we’re cheering for the pickled egg https://t.co/5lNWOu4OZK" / X
A reflection on the madness, cynicism, selfishness, and absurdity A decade of information manipulation has left us a nation of cripples on our own psychological defense It’s nearing the end of the republic but we’re cheering for the pickled egg https://t.co/5lNWOu4OZK
x.com
March 8, 2025 at 4:54 AM
“It’s nearing the end of the republic but we’re cheering for the pickled egg.”
A wonderful piece of writing from @mollymckew.bsky.social
x.com/mollymckew/s...
A wonderful piece of writing from @mollymckew.bsky.social
x.com/mollymckew/s...
We have updated our map to reflect the situation in Kursk. In short, it's not looking good.
The areas east of the Loknya and Psel rivers will likely be lost within days or less. Large scale withdrawal is likely, but Ukraine may attempt to hold onto Sudzha for some time.
The areas east of the Loknya and Psel rivers will likely be lost within days or less. Large scale withdrawal is likely, but Ukraine may attempt to hold onto Sudzha for some time.
We have updated the map to reflect the emerging situation in the Kursk salient, where recent Russian offensive have forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from large areas.
The northern part of the salient has been abandoned, with Russians capturing Malaya Lokanaya.
1/
The northern part of the salient has been abandoned, with Russians capturing Malaya Lokanaya.
1/
March 9, 2025 at 5:09 PM
We have updated our map to reflect the situation in Kursk. In short, it's not looking good.
The areas east of the Loknya and Psel rivers will likely be lost within days or less. Large scale withdrawal is likely, but Ukraine may attempt to hold onto Sudzha for some time.
The areas east of the Loknya and Psel rivers will likely be lost within days or less. Large scale withdrawal is likely, but Ukraine may attempt to hold onto Sudzha for some time.
We have updated our map to reflect the situation in Kursk. In short, it's not looking good.
The areas east of the Loknya and Psel rivers will likely be lost within days or less. Large scale withdrawal is likely, but Ukraine may attempt to hold onto Sudzha for some time.
The areas east of the Loknya and Psel rivers will likely be lost within days or less. Large scale withdrawal is likely, but Ukraine may attempt to hold onto Sudzha for some time.
We have noticed a trend of OSINT and Ukraine experts expanding their presence here in Bluesky over the past week. In order to continue our work around Russias invasion of Ukraine, we have also decided to establish a presence here.
You can find our map at:
www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Th...
You can find our map at:
www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Th...
The War in Ukraine
Map depicting the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as analysed by Black Bird Group
www.scribblemaps.com
March 9, 2025 at 5:09 PM
We have updated our map to reflect the situation in Kursk. In short, it's not looking good.
The areas east of the Loknya and Psel rivers will likely be lost within days or less. Large scale withdrawal is likely, but Ukraine may attempt to hold onto Sudzha for some time.
The areas east of the Loknya and Psel rivers will likely be lost within days or less. Large scale withdrawal is likely, but Ukraine may attempt to hold onto Sudzha for some time.
US has stopped military aid to Ukraine as per Bloomberg.
"The US is pausing all current military aid to Ukraine until Trump determines the country’s leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace, according to a senior Defense Department official"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"The US is pausing all current military aid to Ukraine until Trump determines the country’s leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace, according to a senior Defense Department official"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
March 4, 2025 at 12:03 AM
US has stopped military aid to Ukraine as per Bloomberg.
"The US is pausing all current military aid to Ukraine until Trump determines the country’s leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace, according to a senior Defense Department official"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"The US is pausing all current military aid to Ukraine until Trump determines the country’s leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace, according to a senior Defense Department official"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by John Helin
What coherent and intelligent commentary can you even have on national security or military affairs anymore?
Everything is just fucking stupid now. What are you even supposed to say besides just repeating over and over how fucking dumb every single decision is?
Everything is just fucking stupid now. What are you even supposed to say besides just repeating over and over how fucking dumb every single decision is?
March 3, 2025 at 8:16 PM
What coherent and intelligent commentary can you even have on national security or military affairs anymore?
Everything is just fucking stupid now. What are you even supposed to say besides just repeating over and over how fucking dumb every single decision is?
Everything is just fucking stupid now. What are you even supposed to say besides just repeating over and over how fucking dumb every single decision is?
Reposted by John Helin
Trump take egg Trump take lumber Trump take oil Trump take nickel Trump take tomato Trump take avocado Trump take car Trump take steel Trump take laptop Trump take 401k Trump take natural gas Trump take cell phones Trump take t shirt Trump take tequila Trump take washing machines Trump take steel Tr
March 3, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Trump take egg Trump take lumber Trump take oil Trump take nickel Trump take tomato Trump take avocado Trump take car Trump take steel Trump take laptop Trump take 401k Trump take natural gas Trump take cell phones Trump take t shirt Trump take tequila Trump take washing machines Trump take steel Tr
Reposted by John Helin
starting a business that just sells Canadian merchandise at US airports for Americans traveling abroad
February 28, 2025 at 7:51 PM
starting a business that just sells Canadian merchandise at US airports for Americans traveling abroad
Well that's a way to spend the friday night.
What a complete disaster. If someone still had illusions about the US being a reliable and moral foreign policy partner, this is the time to wake up.
Sadly I don't have high hopes.
What a complete disaster. If someone still had illusions about the US being a reliable and moral foreign policy partner, this is the time to wake up.
Sadly I don't have high hopes.
February 28, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Well that's a way to spend the friday night.
What a complete disaster. If someone still had illusions about the US being a reliable and moral foreign policy partner, this is the time to wake up.
Sadly I don't have high hopes.
What a complete disaster. If someone still had illusions about the US being a reliable and moral foreign policy partner, this is the time to wake up.
Sadly I don't have high hopes.
Reposted by John Helin
This photo of Musk speaking at the AfD rally has an interesting composition.
I'm sure the AFP photographer had fun.
I'm sure the AFP photographer had fun.
January 25, 2025 at 7:08 PM
This photo of Musk speaking at the AfD rally has an interesting composition.
I'm sure the AFP photographer had fun.
I'm sure the AFP photographer had fun.
This photo of Musk speaking at the AfD rally has an interesting composition.
I'm sure the AFP photographer had fun.
I'm sure the AFP photographer had fun.
January 25, 2025 at 7:08 PM
This photo of Musk speaking at the AfD rally has an interesting composition.
I'm sure the AFP photographer had fun.
I'm sure the AFP photographer had fun.
Reposted by John Helin
if you want a simple narrative of the last four years in cultural leadership: a bunch of 50-something men got mad about their buddies losing their jobs for sexually assaulting women, so they decided that sexism and racism were fine all along
January 22, 2025 at 2:50 AM
if you want a simple narrative of the last four years in cultural leadership: a bunch of 50-something men got mad about their buddies losing their jobs for sexually assaulting women, so they decided that sexism and racism were fine all along
Reposted by John Helin
It was only a matter of time before Trump gave us the first QAnon FBI director. Patel: “The Q thing is a movement a lot of people attach themselves to. I disagree with a lot of what that movement says, but I agree with a lot of what that movement says.” www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/u...
Kash Patel, Trump’s FBI Pick, Sees Good in QAnon and Evil in the Bureau
Kash Patel’s public comments on the QAnon conspiracy theory suggests he sees its adherents more as an audience to be courted rather than an ideology to follow.
www.nytimes.com
January 24, 2025 at 8:37 AM
It was only a matter of time before Trump gave us the first QAnon FBI director. Patel: “The Q thing is a movement a lot of people attach themselves to. I disagree with a lot of what that movement says, but I agree with a lot of what that movement says.” www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/u...
Reposted by John Helin
Light Infantry Attacks – A Thread
Why does our @jjhelin.bsky.social keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"?
Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters.
1/
Why does our @jjhelin.bsky.social keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"?
Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters.
1/
January 16, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Light Infantry Attacks – A Thread
Why does our @jjhelin.bsky.social keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"?
Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters.
1/
Why does our @jjhelin.bsky.social keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"?
Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters.
1/
Reposted by John Helin
Finland as usual showing a masterful & unusual combination of sangfroid and seriousness in response to a national security threat.
December 27, 2024 at 5:10 PM
Finland as usual showing a masterful & unusual combination of sangfroid and seriousness in response to a national security threat.
Reposted by John Helin
With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk.
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
December 23, 2024 at 1:05 AM
With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk.
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk.
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
December 23, 2024 at 1:05 AM
With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk.
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
Reposted by John Helin
Ukraine’s failure to fix organizational issues and replace inefficient commanders has eroded trust in the system to the point, where severe recruitment shortages and desertion levels are so high that no amount of aid can fix it
The window of opportunity to change is closing
The window of opportunity to change is closing
December 15, 2024 at 7:57 PM
Ukraine’s failure to fix organizational issues and replace inefficient commanders has eroded trust in the system to the point, where severe recruitment shortages and desertion levels are so high that no amount of aid can fix it
The window of opportunity to change is closing
The window of opportunity to change is closing
Reposted by John Helin
By the way, interesting to see the five brigade figure in this report. It's the same force sizing I entertained - entirely speculatively - in a piece looking at options for Ukraine a few weeks ago. www.economist.com/briefing/202...
December 11, 2024 at 8:31 AM
By the way, interesting to see the five brigade figure in this report. It's the same force sizing I entertained - entirely speculatively - in a piece looking at options for Ukraine a few weeks ago. www.economist.com/briefing/202...
Reposted by John Helin
Clarification; this 40k number has NOT come from the French government. It came from analysis by a think tank. bsky.app/profile/shas...
That would be a larger force than the combined NATO forward deployments in Eastern Europe. Pulling together that number of troops plus enablers would be a huge undertaking for allies. Would consume NATO reserves & more. A big ask, and probably impossible without significant US assistance.
On Thursday, Marcon will visit Warsaw to discuss a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. One of the variants assumes a Korean scenario with the participation of a foreign contingent of 40,000 soldiers. www.rp.pl/polityka/art...
December 11, 2024 at 4:00 PM
Clarification; this 40k number has NOT come from the French government. It came from analysis by a think tank. bsky.app/profile/shas...
Reposted by John Helin
That would be a larger force than the combined NATO forward deployments in Eastern Europe. Pulling together that number of troops plus enablers would be a huge undertaking for allies. Would consume NATO reserves & more. A big ask, and probably impossible without significant US assistance.
On Thursday, Marcon will visit Warsaw to discuss a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. One of the variants assumes a Korean scenario with the participation of a foreign contingent of 40,000 soldiers. www.rp.pl/polityka/art...
Macron chce z Polską ratować Ukrainę
Prezydent Francji przylatuje w czwartek do Warszawy, by omówić plan europejskiej misji rozjemczej, która pozwoliłaby zachować ukraińską suwerenność w ramach ewe
www.rp.pl
December 11, 2024 at 7:54 AM
That would be a larger force than the combined NATO forward deployments in Eastern Europe. Pulling together that number of troops plus enablers would be a huge undertaking for allies. Would consume NATO reserves & more. A big ask, and probably impossible without significant US assistance.