John
johnlindros.bsky.social
John
@johnlindros.bsky.social
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If you feel you are short you make a move in July. If everyone is healthy you have to move someone from starters to the pen anyway when it matters. Plus they drafted a ton of college arms last year that could factor in.

The five I listed are a good bullpen. Look around.
This assumes they spend all available $ resources on the offense. You are left with:

Sanchez
Luzardo
Nola
Painter
Walker
Wheeler

Once Wheeler returns, assuming Walker is bullpen/swing that leaves 7 spots

Duran
Strahm
Kerk
Alvarado
Banks

That leaves 2 spots for guys with options to rotate in/out.
Get good players, stop worrying about “a RH power bat”. If you want that it’s easy - sign Alonso and let Schwarber leave.
Find a way to acquire someone to replace Castellanos- great! That should be an upgrade. Trade Marsh for Ward either directly or indirectly? At best it is rearranging deck chairs, at worst it’s a probable downgrade.

There were 8 qualified LHSP in the NL last year. 2 were Phillies.
Since the start of 2023, qualified OFs. Philly fans undervalue their own, fortunately our front office seems like they don’t.
Here all all MLB 3B in 2025 from May 1 ranked by wRC+. Bohm had a terrible first month, and certainly might be traded, but one of you really put in writing that he might be non-tendered? He would celebrate being non tendered.
Assuming he is worth the contract $ being floated (I have no idea), to me he is a Schwarber alternative, allowing Harper to do some DHing. Phils have to keep meeting with these guys to try and break through, but Seattle has a 1B and 3B job open, just saying.

Requires a LOT of moving parts for Phils
No. No more $10m guys in their 30s you are crossing your fingers on. Take that Kepler, Romano, Ross, JT $ and get a real top 4 in the lineup hitter.
Totally splitting hairs here, but if we are going 4 year peak (Schwarber Phillies career), Howard’s not platooning with anybody in my team.
Personally I would go hard at Tucker, I like FAs in their 20s. There is $ to sign Tucker (or Bellinger who should be cheaper) and a DH (Schwarber, Alonso, Naylor, Suarez) and then they have to decide if declining JT is worth his market. $70m in 2026 salary puts them back at last year’s start.
There are reasons to move Bohm - he is very unlikely to receive a QO in a year so if you keep him he will probably leave for “free”.

Dumping your 4th/5th best hitter to get a new 4th/5th best hitter is less effective than just replacing your 8th best hitter with a new 4th and sliding the rest down
Alex Bregman (entering his age 32 season) is expected to be expensive in terms of $ and years. He has had a good career. After May 1, 2025 he would have been a “massive” downgrade from Bohm, who only requires a less expensive 1 yr deal. Want to close the window? Sign more declining mid-30s guys.
The 13th guy on this list (MLB OF ranked by wRC+ since 5/1/25) will sign for around $35m/yr. RAJ just said on your pod he might threaten to non-tender #12. Marsh would celebrate if the Phillies non-tendered him.
Last one - from 4/11-5/27 Schwarber hit 4th. He was great there! Here is Harper during that time and for the full season. Made zero difference (actually slightly better without Kyle behind him if we are being honest).
They don’t have bat speed from 2021, so can’t see that here, but he is down from 2023 to 2025. The rest of the bars tell the story. Not saying he’s “bad”, but he’s declining and has become more extreme (imo) in his approach to compensate for what he is losing due to injury and age.
Since 2019 “after 0-1” OPS

2019 - .729
2020 - .857
2021 - .956 (MVP)
2022 - .604
2023 - .639
2024 - .757
2025 - .638

At one time, he could be aggressive early in the count and even if he fell behind he could do damage. Now if he doesn’t get a cookie early, he is reduced to hoping for a walk.
His career OPS after going down 0-1 (53.6% of ABs) is .737

2025 he went behind 0-1 in 50.1% of his ABs. OPS of .638.

So he actually went down 0-1 less often than usual, but if he went down the AB was close to a lost cause already.

This again is not a new thing - since the injury it is the norm.
Why is he swinging more often? Because if he doesn’t hit the first pitch he has not been a very good hitter since the injury.

Once he got a first pitch strike this year he was bad. He did a ton of damage on 0-0 and 1-0 counts. “After 0-1” he became Johan Rojas. This wasn’t always the case.
Zone % by year (Fangraphs statcast)

2021 - 46.7
2022 - 44.7
2023 - 41.2
2024 - 43.2
2025 - 42.9

This isn’t a new phenomenon, he was below 40% in 2020, 2021 was his highest zone % of his career.

For the last 4 years he is swinging at 51-55% off all pitches thrown. 4 highest rates of his career.
Harper is in decline, and it ties to his TJ injury. Here are his chase rates and pitches in the zone from 2021 (MVP) through 2025.

Bryce chase rate by season (Savant)

2021 - 24.8
2022 - 35.7
2023 - 33.4
2024 - 33.4
2025 - 35.6

Thats why no one throws him a strike.
In 2024 it was mostly Bohm and while he isn’t a typical 4 hole hitter, he was basically “fine”. He was actually much better than this in 2025 starting May 1.
Here is everyone that had at least 20 PAs as the cleanup hitter in 2025 and how they did hitting there. Bohm’s were almost all in the first month when he was bad.
Maybe baseball ref is wrong, but according to them he isn’t a FA until 2027. So “Fact” #1 is probably not factual.

If he is arb eligible it would be crazy not to have him in ST. Personally I would only bring back JT 1 or 2yr deal if there is leftover $ late in FA. I’d be ok w/ Marchan/Stubbs ‘26
Stop worrying about LH/RH, sign the best available OF and I guess Schwarber or a replacement (Alonzo, Naylor, etc) and try to make sure you are 4 deep at the top. They have about $70m to spend on 2026 salaries to stay at the same level. They have the $ and the attractive team to lure FAs.
I haven’t listened yet, so just a guess - you want a RHH in the middle of the lineup, because LHSP is potentially a problem. Did you know, there were EIGHT qualified LHSP in the NL this year. If I drop it to 100 ip there are 19.

Who were the top 3 NL LHSP by Fangraphs WAR you ask?