Karen Cutter
@karencutter.bsky.social
Actuary. Australian. Mostly Covid. Views are my own.
Pinned
Karen Cutter
@karencutter.bsky.social
· Oct 18
Just popping a couple of things here - stuff the Australian Mortality Working Group has published since I was last active over here
Happy international actuaries day to all my actuarial friends!
September 1, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Happy international actuaries day to all my actuarial friends!
Reposted by Karen Cutter
The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute (Australia) has just released our analysis of mortality for the first 11 months of 2024. Total mortality was 1% higher than predicted, almost all because Covid-19 was higher than we predicted. #thread
March 22, 2025 at 4:02 AM
The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute (Australia) has just released our analysis of mortality for the first 11 months of 2024. Total mortality was 1% higher than predicted, almost all because Covid-19 was higher than we predicted. #thread
ABS released their provisional mortality statistics yesterday, with data to 30 November 2024.
www.abs.gov.au/statistics/h...
www.abs.gov.au/statistics/h...
Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - Nov 2024
Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality
www.abs.gov.au
March 1, 2025 at 2:40 AM
ABS released their provisional mortality statistics yesterday, with data to 30 November 2024.
www.abs.gov.au/statistics/h...
www.abs.gov.au/statistics/h...
Reposted by Karen Cutter
So #covidinquiry commissioned serious research by academics at Oxford Uni into vaccine safety. Concludes “best evidence” suggests jabs saved millions of lives. And any suggestion they caused excess mortality is “low quality and has been in many cases misinterpreted.” A short 🧵
January 23, 2025 at 8:27 AM
So #covidinquiry commissioned serious research by academics at Oxford Uni into vaccine safety. Concludes “best evidence” suggests jabs saved millions of lives. And any suggestion they caused excess mortality is “low quality and has been in many cases misinterpreted.” A short 🧵
Reposted by Karen Cutter
Final ONS weekly deaths data for 2024 was released this morning. 563,762 deaths registered in the year.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
January 15, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Final ONS weekly deaths data for 2024 was released this morning. 563,762 deaths registered in the year.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
The Centre for Population released their 2024 population statement just before Christmas. Includes projections of births, deaths and net migration that feed into Govt decision making.
population.gov.au/publications...
population.gov.au/publications...
2024 Population Statement | Centre for Population
The 2024 Population Statement is the Centre’s fifth release in an annual series that provides a comprehensive national picture of how the Australia population has changed and how we expect it to chang...
population.gov.au
January 5, 2025 at 11:35 PM
The Centre for Population released their 2024 population statement just before Christmas. Includes projections of births, deaths and net migration that feed into Govt decision making.
population.gov.au/publications...
population.gov.au/publications...
Covid prevalence in NSW has increased this week, but indicators suggest it is still substantially less than the same time last year.
With Christmas now less than a week away, I’m hopeful this means the peak of this wave will also be much lower than last year.
www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...
With Christmas now less than a week away, I’m hopeful this means the peak of this wave will also be much lower than last year.
www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...
www.health.nsw.gov.au
December 19, 2024 at 7:57 PM
Covid prevalence in NSW has increased this week, but indicators suggest it is still substantially less than the same time last year.
With Christmas now less than a week away, I’m hopeful this means the peak of this wave will also be much lower than last year.
www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...
With Christmas now less than a week away, I’m hopeful this means the peak of this wave will also be much lower than last year.
www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...
Oh goody. The anti-vaxxers have found me here
December 17, 2024 at 10:05 PM
Oh goody. The anti-vaxxers have found me here
The Australian actuaries Mortality Working Group has released excess mortality estimates for the first eight months of 2024.
www.actuaries.digital/2024/12/17/m...
www.actuaries.digital/2024/12/17/m...
Mortality in First Eight Months of 2024 2% Higher Than Predicted - Actuaries Digital
In their latest article, the Mortality Working Group shares excess mortality analysis for the first eight months of 2024. In summary For the first eight months of 2024, against a baseline that include...
www.actuaries.digital
December 17, 2024 at 11:22 AM
The Australian actuaries Mortality Working Group has released excess mortality estimates for the first eight months of 2024.
www.actuaries.digital/2024/12/17/m...
www.actuaries.digital/2024/12/17/m...
Reposted by Karen Cutter
Outstanding article on the likelihood of bird flu becoming a pandemic. If you have a moment give it a read.
You've probaly seen various headlines this year about bird flu and the potential for a new pandemic.
So I've written a new substack as a simple explainer on what a flu pandemic actually is, why bird flu and what's been going on over the last 3 years.
open.substack.com/pub/christin...
So I've written a new substack as a simple explainer on what a flu pandemic actually is, why bird flu and what's been going on over the last 3 years.
open.substack.com/pub/christin...
How close is a new bird flu (H5N1) pandemic?
Probably not around the corner but getting uncomfortably closer.
open.substack.com
December 12, 2024 at 1:35 AM
Outstanding article on the likelihood of bird flu becoming a pandemic. If you have a moment give it a read.
Four weeks since my post saying it looked like Covid was about to take off again in NSW. Latest NSW Health report shows little action. A very benign wave compared with this time last year.
Going out on a limb here: I think we are at the start of a new Covid wave.
Stats from todays NSW Health report:
www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...
Stats from todays NSW Health report:
www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...
www.health.nsw.gov.au
December 12, 2024 at 3:41 AM
Four weeks since my post saying it looked like Covid was about to take off again in NSW. Latest NSW Health report shows little action. A very benign wave compared with this time last year.
Reposted by Karen Cutter
And just like that, after an absurdly short time for consideration and debate, the Australian Senate has passed the Under16s Social Media Ban into law. No good will come of this for young people, and this will not prevent potential harms. If anything, it will increase them.
November 28, 2024 at 12:19 PM
And just like that, after an absurdly short time for consideration and debate, the Australian Senate has passed the Under16s Social Media Ban into law. No good will come of this for young people, and this will not prevent potential harms. If anything, it will increase them.
Reposted by Karen Cutter
The report from the NZ Covid inquiry was (somewhat surprisingly!) released today:
www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-less...
Here's some initial reaction from me (which should appear at www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz in due course):
www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-less...
Here's some initial reaction from me (which should appear at www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz in due course):
Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons Learned | Covid-19 Lessons Learned
www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz
November 28, 2024 at 3:25 AM
The report from the NZ Covid inquiry was (somewhat surprisingly!) released today:
www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-less...
Here's some initial reaction from me (which should appear at www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz in due course):
www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-less...
Here's some initial reaction from me (which should appear at www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz in due course):
Interesting stats!
This explains why conservative fear-mongering is such an easy play in America.
— Ppl believe trans ppl make up 21% of the population (Real number: 1%)
— Ppl believe Black ppl make up 41% of the nation (real number 12%)
— Ppl believe Jewish ppl make up 30% of the nation (Real number, 2%)
— Ppl believe trans ppl make up 21% of the population (Real number: 1%)
— Ppl believe Black ppl make up 41% of the nation (real number 12%)
— Ppl believe Jewish ppl make up 30% of the nation (Real number, 2%)
November 21, 2024 at 11:53 PM
Interesting stats!
NSW Health respiratory surveillance report. All the indicators that were on the increase last week are mostly unchanged this week.
www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...
www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...
www.health.nsw.gov.au
November 21, 2024 at 11:07 AM
NSW Health respiratory surveillance report. All the indicators that were on the increase last week are mostly unchanged this week.
www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...
www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...
Reposted by Karen Cutter
"The UK is no longer offering COVID vaccines to pregnant women – here’s why that might be a bad idea" - @theconversation.bsky.social article by @sheencr.bsky.social drawing on joint work with @chrischirp.bsky.social
theconversation.com/the-uk-is-no...
theconversation.com/the-uk-is-no...
The UK is no longer offering COVID vaccines to pregnant women – here’s why that might be a bad idea
From spring 2025, pregnant women will no longer be eligible for free COVID vaccines in the UK.
theconversation.com
November 20, 2024 at 4:00 PM
"The UK is no longer offering COVID vaccines to pregnant women – here’s why that might be a bad idea" - @theconversation.bsky.social article by @sheencr.bsky.social drawing on joint work with @chrischirp.bsky.social
theconversation.com/the-uk-is-no...
theconversation.com/the-uk-is-no...
Reposted by Karen Cutter
There's a very interesting myth that many people seem to believe, which is that the US is doing badly on life expectancy due primarily to chronic disease.
This is broadly untrue. Rather, America and most of the OECD have similar issues with diabetes, heart disease, cancer, etc.
This is broadly untrue. Rather, America and most of the OECD have similar issues with diabetes, heart disease, cancer, etc.
America is the SICKEST nation in the developed world with the lowest life expectancy (used to be the highest)! Chronic Disease is the NUMBER ONE medical expense in the country. You need wake up.
November 20, 2024 at 4:43 AM
There's a very interesting myth that many people seem to believe, which is that the US is doing badly on life expectancy due primarily to chronic disease.
This is broadly untrue. Rather, America and most of the OECD have similar issues with diabetes, heart disease, cancer, etc.
This is broadly untrue. Rather, America and most of the OECD have similar issues with diabetes, heart disease, cancer, etc.
Reposted by Karen Cutter
Absolutely recommend following Ian for his generous and accessible sharing of scientific COVID knowledge!
Thank him for the Swiss Cheese model that helped us understand multilevel mitigation approach to preventing transmission of airborne viruses!
Thank him for the Swiss Cheese model that helped us understand multilevel mitigation approach to preventing transmission of airborne viruses!
November 18, 2024 at 8:15 AM
Absolutely recommend following Ian for his generous and accessible sharing of scientific COVID knowledge!
Thank him for the Swiss Cheese model that helped us understand multilevel mitigation approach to preventing transmission of airborne viruses!
Thank him for the Swiss Cheese model that helped us understand multilevel mitigation approach to preventing transmission of airborne viruses!
My fortune cookie last night. Felt quite apt given the mass X-odus in the last week.
November 18, 2024 at 2:17 AM
My fortune cookie last night. Felt quite apt given the mass X-odus in the last week.
Reposted by Karen Cutter
Wow. Kate McClymont reports Alan Jones has been arrested by police. www.smh.com.au/national/ala...
Alan Jones arrested over allegations he indecently assaulted young men
Alan Jones has been arrested at his luxury Circular Quay apartment by NSW Police over allegations the controversial broadcaster and former Wallabies coach indecently assaulted, groped or inappropriate...
www.smh.com.au
November 17, 2024 at 9:25 PM
Wow. Kate McClymont reports Alan Jones has been arrested by police. www.smh.com.au/national/ala...
CJ as the VP in The Diplomat season 2. Excellent TV.
#AlisonJanney
#AlisonJanney
November 17, 2024 at 11:15 AM
CJ as the VP in The Diplomat season 2. Excellent TV.
#AlisonJanney
#AlisonJanney
November 15, 2024 at 11:31 AM
Someone on the old hellsite says their GP said they were getting vax early Dec for 16 Dec start date. Can anyone confirm?
(Public health via Chinese whispers.)
(Public health via Chinese whispers.)
ATAGI minutes for Oct have been released, stating “ATAGI recommends using the latest COVID-19 vaccine formulation”. This was before the Pfizer JN.1 vaccine had received TGA approval, but presumably this means it is “ATAGI approved” as soon as supply is available in Australia (expected “late 2024”)
November 15, 2024 at 6:59 AM
Someone on the old hellsite says their GP said they were getting vax early Dec for 16 Dec start date. Can anyone confirm?
(Public health via Chinese whispers.)
(Public health via Chinese whispers.)
I got a bit over-excited following a few starter packs and seem to have followed squillions of Americans who are clogging my feed. Please don’t be offended if I unfollow you. Need more Aussie content.
November 15, 2024 at 6:10 AM
I got a bit over-excited following a few starter packs and seem to have followed squillions of Americans who are clogging my feed. Please don’t be offended if I unfollow you. Need more Aussie content.
ATAGI minutes for Oct have been released, stating “ATAGI recommends using the latest COVID-19 vaccine formulation”. This was before the Pfizer JN.1 vaccine had received TGA approval, but presumably this means it is “ATAGI approved” as soon as supply is available in Australia (expected “late 2024”)
November 15, 2024 at 5:35 AM
ATAGI minutes for Oct have been released, stating “ATAGI recommends using the latest COVID-19 vaccine formulation”. This was before the Pfizer JN.1 vaccine had received TGA approval, but presumably this means it is “ATAGI approved” as soon as supply is available in Australia (expected “late 2024”)