Alexander Wuttke
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kunkakom.bsky.social
Alexander Wuttke
@kunkakom.bsky.social
4K followers 2.2K following 440 posts

Digitalization & Pol Behavior LMU_Muenchen | Democracy and Populist Attitudes | Open Science | 🚵‍♂️🐶

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Political science 63%
Communication & Media Studies 7%
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kunkakom.bsky.social
Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 11h
Sorry, undergraduate here:
Can you please explain the plot to me?

kunkakom.bsky.social
Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 11h
(Re calibration: perhaps the (only?) convincing approach to measuring the share of null among entire population is the Franco et al. Design. But perhaps these designs could help you by provide some starting values for your calibration but maybe I missed that you already use it.)

kunkakom.bsky.social
Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 11h
Love it.
What a fantastic exercise in descriptive research.
So valuable that we now can put a number on it!

kunkakom.bsky.social
Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 11h
There are solutions to the problem of null results and we know them.

One of them is the widespread introduction of Registered Reports across journals.

It is not that we lack solutions but that we lack the will to change things (and accept a potential decline in the IF that we all love so much)
mcopelov.bsky.social Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 13h
Really important paper, 🧵, & results. No one, including me, has good solutions for this, but it's a huge problem for social science that we all know & expect that ~every paper with a null finding as the main result goes in the file drawer.
ryancbriggs.net Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 13h
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

mcopelov.bsky.social
Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 13h
Really important paper, 🧵, & results. No one, including me, has good solutions for this, but it's a huge problem for social science that we all know & expect that ~every paper with a null finding as the main result goes in the file drawer.
ryancbriggs.net Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 13h
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke, Daniel S. Goldberg, Federica Genovese

ryancbriggs.net
Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 13h
It's ironic to see a discipline care **so much** about unbiasedness (causal inference!) at the level of a single test but then have a research production system and culture that is basically a ferocious bias generation machine. This is not good.

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

ryancbriggs.net
Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 13h
When we look across journals, we see the same patterns repeated. The main exception is the Journal of Experimental Political Science, which has the highest rate of null-only reporting and lowest rate of rejection-only reporting. Kudos to them.
a graph showing JEPS has less selection on significance than other journals

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke, Patrick Präg

ryancbriggs.net
Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 13h
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

kunkakom.bsky.social
Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 2d
Thanks!

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke, Stephen D. Murphy

ed-king.bsky.social
Ed King @ed-king.bsky.social · 2d
'The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards China' - worth reading this analysis of UN votes by @focaldataHQ hs-3959436.f.hubspot...

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

conjugateprior.org
Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 2d
Perhaps you received a mysterious noreply email asking you to evaluate some publications 'for novelty'. Looked kinda dubious? Yup, that's the one.

So what's up with this 'metascience novelty indicators challenge'? 🧵

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

mzes-ssdl.bsky.social
MZES Social Science Data Lab @mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · 2d
▶️ Social Science Data Lab: Spring 2026 Events

Four input talks by great researchers (see below ⤵️)!

🗓️ Details & Zoom:
socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/

👥 Organizers:
@rubac.bsky.social,
@denis-cohen.bsky.social and Alexander Wenz
Upcoming 2026-05-13 | Input talk | Lion Behrens (Data Scientist & Independent Researcher) Modeling Causal Heterogeneity with Machine Learning more 2026-04-22 | Input talk | Leah von der Heyde (GESIS) AIn't Nothing But a Survey? Using Large Language Models for Coding Open-Ended Survey Responses more 2026-03-11 | Input talk | Andreas Küpfer (TU Darmstadt & University of Birmingham) Politics in Action: Studying Multimodal Data from Local Meetings to National Parliaments more 2026-02-25 | Input talk | Klara Müller (University of Mannheim) When Events Change Samples: Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs more

kunkakom.bsky.social
Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 3d
Wer Polarisierung, Anti-establishment Orientierung und den Aufstieg der AfD verstehen will, sollte das Dschungelcamp 2026 schauen #ibes

kunkakom.bsky.social
Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 3d
??!?!? #ibes

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

ludowaltman.bsky.social
Ludo Waltman @ludowaltman.bsky.social · 3d
Recognising and rewarding of open science in HR-policy

www.openscience.nl/en/recognisi...

This post discusses efforts Dutch institutions are making to strengthen the way they recognize and reward open science.

I like the 'Room for every PhD Candidate' initiative at @utrechtuniversity.bsky.social.
Recognising and rewarding of open science in HR-policy | Open Science NL
Open Science NL awarded the projects; coordination is handled by Inge van der Weijden and Andrea Reyes Elizondo, both affiliated with the Centre for Science and Technology (CWTS, Leiden University). ‘We try to visit each project three times: once in person and twice online. In addition, we organise three national meetings and four thematic workshops to bring all project leaders together so they can learn from each other: exchanging experiences and challenges, sharing best practices. There is always an expert present to, for example, provide an international perspective.’
www.openscience.nl

Reposted by Gijs Schumacher, Mark J. Brandt, Alexander Wuttke , and 4 more

isabellareb.bsky.social
Isabella Rebasso @isabellareb.bsky.social · 5d
🎉 New paper out in Political Behavior (with @gijsschumacher.bsky.social & @mrooduijn.bsky.social)

Why do some people feel stronger emotions about politics than others?
💡Not political knowledge, but interest and confidence-in-knowledge drive emotional engagement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
🧵
Disentangling the Sophistication-Emotion Link: Political Interest and Confidence-in-Knowledge, but not Knowledge, Drive Emotional Responses - Political Behavior
Why do some people feel stronger emotions about politics than others? Past work suggests that political sophistication, consisting of knowledge and interest, is related to feeling strong emotions abou...
link.springer.com

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

cihancelik.bsky.social
Cihan Çelik @cihancelik.bsky.social · 6d
Update: Offenbar sehen das auch viele meiner ärztlichen Kollegen ähnlich wie ich und wollen keine rechtsextremen Portale mitfinanzieren. Gut so.

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke, Fabio Giglietto

favstats.eu
Fabio Votta📊🐧 @favstats.eu · 7d
🚀 dashboardr is out!

An #rstats package for building interactive dashboards with tidyverse-style syntax.

Launched with a fun hackathon at @ascor.bsky.social (🍕 included).

📦: favstats.github.io/dashboardr/

Big thanks to the dashboardr team, Digicomlab, and @vivifabrien.bsky.social for the logo 🎨

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

jakobkas.bsky.social
Jakob Kasper @jakobkas.bsky.social · 7d
Politics Doesn’t Define How Most People See Themselves

I’ve written a blog post just published by The Inquisitive Mind.

Link: www.in-mind.org/blog/post/po...

Very brief summary in the thread.

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke, Johannes Breuer

aly.codes
aly @aly.codes · 7d
agents can hire humans now

www.rentahuman.ai
RentAHuman.ai - AI Agents Hire Humans for Physical Tasks
The marketplace where AI agents rent humans. MCP integration, REST API, flexible payments. Book humans for real-world tasks your AI can't do.
www.rentahuman.ai

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft

ingorohlfing.bsky.social
Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 8d
Welcome to #OpenScience Land
expedition-open-science.org This is a lightweight, but very useful and accessible intro to key elements of Open Science (online and as a PDF). Seems particularly useful for introducing the topic to undergraduates @zbw-leibniz.bsky.social
A handdrawn of an imaginated open science land. It has as parts documentation, planning, dissemination, sea of myths and peninsula of dreams

kunkakom.bsky.social
Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 8d
Favourable reading might bethat we have lived through the early phases of these subdisciplines where we needed to learn how certain new tools work, what community standards we establish for using them well, etc.
The time to use them for bigger questions has come now that this ground has been laid

Reposted by Richard McElreath, Gordon Hodson, Mark J. Brandt , and 3 more

dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 8d
Advances in Statistical Analysis has a call for papers on the role of multiverse analysis in statistical modelling and applications: link.springer.com/journal/1018...

Deadline is May 1st, so still plenty of time to put something together!>
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis is a quarterly journal that publishes original contributions on statistical methodology, applications, and review ...
link.springer.com

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

aricaschuett.bsky.social
Arica Schuett @aricaschuett.bsky.social · 8d
Thursday at 2 PM EST a webinar on anxiety and depression in this profession featuring experts who work in this space. Attendance is confidential and this will not be recorded, live viewing only. Register ahead of time here: politicalsciencenow.com/webinar-anxi...
APSA Webinar: Anxiety and Depression: Graduate School and Beyond | Thursday, February 5, 2026 -
“Anxiety and Depression: Graduate School and Beyond” Thursday, February 5, 2026 | 2:00 pm EST (11:00 am PST) Register Here In a recent APSA survey of political scientists, 43% of respondents reported experiencing anxiety, and [...]
politicalsciencenow.com

Reposted by Michael Barnett, Brian A. Nosek, Steven Van de Walle , and 11 more

fhollenbach.org
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 8d
🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs"
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

jacobinmagazin.bsky.social
Jacobin Magazin @jacobinmagazin.bsky.social · 8d
»Marco Bülow hätte sich sehr oft in seinem Leben entscheiden können, eine stille Karriere zu machen. Er entschied sich zuverlässig für den unbequemen Weg des Widerstands«, erinnert Ines Schwerdtner.
Marco Bülow war ein Vorbild für uns alle
Marco Bülow, der letzte Woche viel zu früh gestorben ist, setzte sich wie kein anderer für soziale Gerechtigkeit ein. Ines Schwerdtner erinnert an einen Mensch, der sich stets für den aufrichtigen Weg entschied.
jacobin.de

Reposted by Rosemary A. Joyce, Alexander Wuttke, Jonathan Hopkin , and 3 more

kevinmkruse.bsky.social
Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 9d
If you campaigned for the presidency on a promise to destroy these assholes, you would win a landslide the size of FDR in 1936, when he campaigned on a promise to destroy these assholes.
citizensnippy.bsky.social Citizen Snippy △ @citizensnippy.bsky.social · 9d
Yes, Peter decided that the continued existence of our democracies isn't compatible with his desired level of personal freedom.

An absolute enemy of humanity.
"I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible." - Peter Thiel

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

timothysnyder.bsky.social
Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 9d
This has all been public for a couple of decades. It's Thiel’s client Vance’s job to bring this to completion if Trump doesn't suffice. (2/2)

Reposted by Jason Mittell, Mark Petticrew, Alexander Wuttke , and 7 more

timothysnyder.bsky.social
Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 9d
Peter Thiel has been open about this for a long time. Trump is a way to break the republic, which can then be replaced by “free economic zones” with oligarchs as dictators and tech as a taskmaster for helpless humans without any rights. (1/2)
bencollins.bsky.social Tim Onion @bencollins.bsky.social · 9d
Definitely seems like they destroyed the country on purpose.
Jeffrey Epstein emailing Peter Thiel: Finding things on their way to collapse was much easier than finding the next bargain. ... Return to tribalism. Counter to globalization. Amazing new alliances.

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke

johnholbein1.bsky.social
John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 9d
So much of classic political science research is woefully underpowered.

I'm glad we're slowly coming to our senses.