Paladino
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paladinoeu.bsky.social
Paladino
@paladinoeu.bsky.social
European, atheist, moralist, optimist | Passionate about #EverCloserUnion 🇪🇺 EU & #democracy | Historian | Current affairs | Geopolitics | Russia, CEE, CSTO watcher
"This one (🇷🇺 war in 🇺🇦 ) is more difficult than I thought" he said.
He had no clue.
He still hasn't.
Trump 2024 campaign: “I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars.”

Trump 2025: “Department of War.”
September 6, 2025 at 1:15 PM
We see a new level in Russia's aggression against Europe as a whole, writes @alanderminna.bsky.social

It's clear that Putin is "boiling the frog" and checking how far he can go. We need to unite and call his bluff, but EU politicians act too little, too slow
1/2

open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Schrödinger’s GPS Jamming and Not So Hybrid Warfare
Russia may or may not have GPS-jammed the EU Commission president's plane. In any case there was no response, Minna Ålander recounts in the Europe Dispatch.
open.substack.com
September 6, 2025 at 12:55 PM
This is not normal.
(Nothing in 🇺🇸 or 🇷🇺 is these days)
August 21, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Lavrov: "Sending European troops to Ukraine as part of security guarantees would amount to foreign military intervention, which Moscow won't support."

Well, f*ck it - we didn't support Russia's military invasion in Ukraine either!

kyivindependent.com/russia-oppos...
Russia opposes European troops in Ukraine under Trump-backed security guarantees, Lavrov says
Sending European troops to Ukraine as part of security guarantees would amount to "foreign military intervention," which Moscow won't support, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Aug. 21.
kyivindependent.com
August 21, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Isn't it about time that, instead of responding to Russian proposals and vetos, the West pushes ITS proposals for a ceasefire, ELSE (secondary) sanctions expand, etc?

Only a show of force can move Putin!
August 20, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Some poor African soldiers or even better, Chinese or North Korean, are certainly a great security security guarantee for Ukraine ☠

This is where NEGOTIATIONS should start - but not where they will finish
Russian foreign ministry clarifies that they will under no circumstances accept NATO soldiers on Ukrainian territory after a peace agreement. So much for Steve Witkoff's claim that Putin had given this concession in Alaska.
August 18, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Nothing good happened in Anchorage

The U.S. has no cards because Trump had been giving them away. To bring peace, 🇺🇸 needs to arm Ukraine, expand sanctions, stop the drone swarms, break the Russian economy & win the war, says @anneapplebaum.bsky.social

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
Trump Has No Cards - The Atlantic
Why would Putin need to make a deal with him?
www.theatlantic.com
August 17, 2025 at 6:52 AM
How to solve the Gordian knot?
A quick look at a first step to reconcile the unreconciliable

Ukraine 🇺🇦 objectives
Restore pre 2014 borders
EU & NATO membership

Russia 🇷🇺 objectives
Recognize Crimea + ALL Kherson/Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk/Luhansk as RU
Demilitarize UA
No UA membership NATO

A few ideas ⤵️
August 16, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Reposted by Paladino
"Putin is in love with a legend. Historically speaking, this is very familiar: new regimes, such as Putin's, seek compensation in myths of ancient origin."
As Putin heads to Alaska with his maps and narratives, here's an essay I wrote last year about one of his spurious justifications for Russia's illegal war of aggression—his ideological story that Russia is an ancient state, and Ukraine is historically Russian land
snyder.substack.com/p/putins-leg...
Putin's Legend
The Nonsensical Basis of a Terrible War
snyder.substack.com
August 15, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Nobody can still pretend that ICE is "just immigration control."
It is becoming a tool for the President to exercise power and intimidate opppnents when no such power legally exists.

Call it Godwin's Law if you must, the list of actions/statements that link Trump to Hitler's playbook is growing.
ICE, America's first interior police, are not being built up, at the cost of billions, just to monitor immigration

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/14/u...
Border Patrol Agents Show Up in Force at Newsom Rally
www.nytimes.com
August 15, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Interesting summer reading onbthe extraordinary influence Robert Moses had on NY state & City.

One quote that struck me: "he is a liar the way Hitler was a liar. He doesn't lie because he can't help it. He lies as a matter of policy."

The same can be said of today's U.S. President.
August 14, 2025 at 2:21 PM
America's lost separation of powers, as it happens.
An essential part of being a #democracy is no more, taken over by a strongman with "a mandate from the people " (just as Adolf Hiitler claimed ...)
Executive orders signed, days since start Presidential term, USA, post-WWII.
Update for August 13th (+3).
August 14, 2025 at 7:08 AM
Trump's new definition of #HumanRights is a fraud
El Salvador 🇸🇻 gets whitewashed
Brazil 🇧🇷 is called "antisemitic" for calling Gaza a genocide
Germany 🇩🇪 has " #FreedomOfSpeech issues" for keeping social media platforms responsible for hate speech

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
Trump Has a New Definition of Human Rights - The Atlantic
State Department reports portray Germany as more oppressive than El Salvador.
www.theatlantic.com
August 14, 2025 at 7:03 AM
The rumour is the Putin wants ALL of Donbas (Luhansk + Donetsk) as the price for a ceasefire.
That would destroy Ukraine's strong defensive "fortress belt" & is an open invitation to a new attack in the future. It's unacceptable.

understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
August 13, 2025 at 9:24 AM
This
If Putin is willing to sit down now to negotiate anything, that's not due his good nature.
It is because a thousand Russians get killed by Ukrainian defenders every day, and because of the resolve of 🇺🇦 's allies to provide weapons & slap sanctions on Russia that bite.

🇪🇺 🤝 🇺🇦
Foreign Minister of Czechia Jan Lipavský on the meeting between Trump&Putin:

"We should also understand what led Putin to even agree to any kind of negotiations.It wasn’t out of goodwill…Putin has already killed million of his own people.He's killing thousands of people daily with attacks on 🇺🇦"
August 13, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Reposted by Paladino
Satellite images show at least 12 air defense units — mostly Pantsir-S1 systems — positioned near Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Valdai.
meduza.io/en/news/2025...
Satellite images show 12 air defense systems near Putin’s Valdai residence — Meduza
Satellite images show at least 12 air defense units — mostly Pantsir-S1 systems — positioned near Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Valdai, in the Novgorod region, Radio Free…
meduza.io
August 13, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Has China's Wirtschaftswunder run out of steam?

From a peak of 18.5% of world GDP in 2021, China 🇨🇳 is back to 16.5%. After raising millions from poverty to the middle-income, macro-economic hiccups stall the rise.

www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Why Peak China may finally have arrived | George Magnus | The Guardian
The technological and strategic brilliance of its world-class companies are being swamped by macroeconomic troubles
www.theguardian.com
August 11, 2025 at 3:01 PM
The swapping of territories Trump alluded to is still a mystery. I think this is will be offered:
a) Kherson & Zaporizhzhia: frontline as is
b) Sumy & Kharkiv, return to the intl border
c) in return for (b), Putin asks all of Donetsk & Luhansk, incl de iure.

www.politico.eu/article/euro...
European allies rally behind Ukraine ahead of Trump-Putin summit
Forceful show of support comes amid scramble to counter Trump’s suggestion of a land swap to end the war.
www.politico.eu
August 11, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Pessimism As a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

When you look better, we're not doing that bad, says @alanderminna.bsky.social: Europe has the money, the know-how, and the industry to tackle the challenge. The only thing stopping Europe is lack of faith.

open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
August 6, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Overproduction is the structural flaw in China’s economic model.

To solve the issues this brings at home & abroad, 🇨🇳 needs to switch to a more consumer- and services-based model - but that's unlikely to happen under Xi's Leninist/mercantilist policies.

www.theguardian.com/business/202...
China’s industrial policy is creating instability at home and abroad | George Magnus | The Guardian
Overcapacity – from electric vehicles to high-speed rail to housing – is destroying profits as well as GDP
www.theguardian.com
August 6, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Reposted by Paladino
The most corrupt White House in history. Here is an account of what people are paying, directly to a PAC called MAGA Inc, in order to meet the president, get pardons, change policy

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/u...
Donor List Suggests Scale of Trump’s Pay-for-Access Operation
www.nytimes.com
August 3, 2025 at 11:18 AM
. @anneapplebaum.bsky.social rightly states that the West does not yet fully understand how broad Putin's goals are.

"If you really want peace, you must arm Ukraine and defend it until Putin releases the war is over & he CANNOT win it."
American journalist, historian, and author Anne Applebaum on the West's biggest mistake in Russia's war against #Ukraine:

"The West doesn't understand the extremism of Putinism. They keep imagining that there's a deal to be done, that if we just give Crimea to Russia, then he'll stop fighting.⤵️
August 2, 2025 at 6:40 PM
#Israel must #StopGenocide in Gaza, even if Hamas committed horrific crimes on 7 Oct  2023. The only peaceful way forward—for both Jews & Palestinians—is a #TwoStateSolution.⁣

Worldwide voices insist: end this war, recognise #Palestine & secure a lasting peace.🇮🇱🇵🇸

apnews.com/article/un-i...
UN conference backs two-state solution, calls on Israel to commit to a Palestinian state
A high-level U.N. conference gave “unwavering support” to a two-state solution and called on Israel to commit to a Palestinian state.
apnews.com
July 31, 2025 at 6:30 PM
You have to admire the Scots ....
Today’s front page of The National, a Scottish newspaper.
July 25, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Since the end of the Cold War, the centre of power in Europe has shifted - for the better.
Not only do the Nordic-Baltic 8 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇫🇮🇸🇪🇩🇰🇳🇴🇮🇸 recognize the risk of Russia next-door, Poland 🇵🇱 is also becoming a heavyweight in its own right + as a partner of 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇩🇪

open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The Long Process of European Unity
Leadership in Europe today goes beyond the big three Western European countries - France, Germany and the UK. Poland is now an important power that cannot be ignored.
open.substack.com
July 25, 2025 at 6:34 PM