Benjamin Tereick
@benjamintereick.bsky.social
Reposted by Benjamin Tereick
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
Reposted by Benjamin Tereick
Today we’re launching the most rigorous, ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP).
339 top experts across AI, CS, economics, and policy will forecast AI’s trajectory monthly for 3 years.
🧵👇
339 top experts across AI, CS, economics, and policy will forecast AI’s trajectory monthly for 3 years.
🧵👇
November 10, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Today we’re launching the most rigorous, ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP).
339 top experts across AI, CS, economics, and policy will forecast AI’s trajectory monthly for 3 years.
🧵👇
339 top experts across AI, CS, economics, and policy will forecast AI’s trajectory monthly for 3 years.
🧵👇