Bob Elliott
@bobeunlimited.bsky.social
CIO @ Unlimited | Fmr Bridgewater IC | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit (or is it #finsky?) | Comments are not investment advice
As a macro investor, I'd say there is plenty to learn from the last 100yrs.
Forgetting the pre-GFC period leaves a very narrow set of plausible set of macro regimes that could drive asset prices ahead and far too much hope that stocks have reliable double digit returns when they don't.
Forgetting the pre-GFC period leaves a very narrow set of plausible set of macro regimes that could drive asset prices ahead and far too much hope that stocks have reliable double digit returns when they don't.
December 1, 2025 at 11:08 PM
As a macro investor, I'd say there is plenty to learn from the last 100yrs.
Forgetting the pre-GFC period leaves a very narrow set of plausible set of macro regimes that could drive asset prices ahead and far too much hope that stocks have reliable double digit returns when they don't.
Forgetting the pre-GFC period leaves a very narrow set of plausible set of macro regimes that could drive asset prices ahead and far too much hope that stocks have reliable double digit returns when they don't.
Buffer ETFs are almost always a terrible deal for investors because of their high fees and gains capping, but hey at least the issuers get rich.
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
December 1, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Buffer ETFs are almost always a terrible deal for investors because of their high fees and gains capping, but hey at least the issuers get rich.
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
For all the worries about the banking system after the SVB kerfuffle, you'd hardly notice it on any charts giving a longer-term perspective. The biggest issue banks face these days is there are few real economy borrowers at these rate levels so they instead are doing financial lending.
December 1, 2025 at 6:13 PM
For all the worries about the banking system after the SVB kerfuffle, you'd hardly notice it on any charts giving a longer-term perspective. The biggest issue banks face these days is there are few real economy borrowers at these rate levels so they instead are doing financial lending.
Squinting At Black Friday Sales
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
December 1, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Squinting At Black Friday Sales
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
The Beige Book release on Wed confirmed the weak labor market reads from other data sources over the same timeframe and reminds us it'll be hard to maintain an income-driven expansion with negative job growth...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
November 30, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The Beige Book release on Wed confirmed the weak labor market reads from other data sources over the same timeframe and reminds us it'll be hard to maintain an income-driven expansion with negative job growth...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
Reeves budget set to raise $35bln certainly calmed the market this week and is set to continue the ongoing adjustment that should favor bonds ahead that I wrote about a few weeks ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
November 29, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Reeves budget set to raise $35bln certainly calmed the market this week and is set to continue the ongoing adjustment that should favor bonds ahead that I wrote about a few weeks ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
Aussie inflation was already above the RBA mandate and now it looks to be rising further. Likely means the RBA will be on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
November 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Aussie inflation was already above the RBA mandate and now it looks to be rising further. Likely means the RBA will be on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
Since its hard to quickly substitute to domestic production & foreign retaliation comes, tariffs mostly end up being a tax hike on domestic HH and Biz that does little to change the external deficit over a timeframe anyone cares about. YTD view looks through noise of front running:
November 28, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Since its hard to quickly substitute to domestic production & foreign retaliation comes, tariffs mostly end up being a tax hike on domestic HH and Biz that does little to change the external deficit over a timeframe anyone cares about. YTD view looks through noise of front running:
Tarriff collections keep slowly creeping up and now represent a roughly 1% of GDP tax hike since the new admin took over.
November 28, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Tarriff collections keep slowly creeping up and now represent a roughly 1% of GDP tax hike since the new admin took over.
Forget the turkey and the fixings, the apple salad is the star of the Thanksgiving meal!
Apples, green grapes, walnuts, dates, marshmallows and a whole lotta mayo.
Apples, green grapes, walnuts, dates, marshmallows and a whole lotta mayo.
November 27, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Forget the turkey and the fixings, the apple salad is the star of the Thanksgiving meal!
Apples, green grapes, walnuts, dates, marshmallows and a whole lotta mayo.
Apples, green grapes, walnuts, dates, marshmallows and a whole lotta mayo.
Folks hoping that homes become affordable have one path to purchase a home - just hold off for about 10 years until their incomes to rise enough to pay today's sky high prices.
November 26, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Folks hoping that homes become affordable have one path to purchase a home - just hold off for about 10 years until their incomes to rise enough to pay today's sky high prices.
Easy Money Hopes Lean on Tough Reality
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
November 26, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Easy Money Hopes Lean on Tough Reality
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
The last time that US homes were this unaffordable was at the peak of the housing boom. It's going to take far more than 50bps drop in mortgage rates before there is a sustainable bottoming and reacceleration in the housing market.
November 25, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The last time that US homes were this unaffordable was at the peak of the housing boom. It's going to take far more than 50bps drop in mortgage rates before there is a sustainable bottoming and reacceleration in the housing market.
US House Prices Are Too Damn High
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
November 25, 2025 at 11:30 AM
US House Prices Are Too Damn High
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
Everyone feels like a genius today.
November 25, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Everyone feels like a genius today.
While managed futures ETFs often have higher expense ratios than typical ETFs, the fees remain far lower for retail investors than the vast majority of mutual funds running similar strategies and far lower than traditional 2&20 LP investments.
November 24, 2025 at 8:31 PM
While managed futures ETFs often have higher expense ratios than typical ETFs, the fees remain far lower for retail investors than the vast majority of mutual funds running similar strategies and far lower than traditional 2&20 LP investments.
The Haunting of Abe’s Ghost
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
November 24, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The Haunting of Abe’s Ghost
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
Another good sign from this week's PMI data that European economic conditions are holding up well.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
November 23, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Another good sign from this week's PMI data that European economic conditions are holding up well.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
For all the hopes that lower mortgage rates would kick off a new round of housing strength, this week's existing home sales data confirmed transaction activity remains woefully depressed.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
November 22, 2025 at 6:13 PM
For all the hopes that lower mortgage rates would kick off a new round of housing strength, this week's existing home sales data confirmed transaction activity remains woefully depressed.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
Some signs in this week's data that UK inflation is now moving down consistently, which should provide some room for the BoE to deliver much needed easing and with it lower rates and a lower currency.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
November 22, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Some signs in this week's data that UK inflation is now moving down consistently, which should provide some room for the BoE to deliver much needed easing and with it lower rates and a lower currency.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
Managed futures hedge fund managers have shown no outperformance persistence relative to their peers. If a manager was in the top quartile over the previous year they only have a 25% change of being top quartile in each of the subsequent 5 years.
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
November 21, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Managed futures hedge fund managers have shown no outperformance persistence relative to their peers. If a manager was in the top quartile over the previous year they only have a 25% change of being top quartile in each of the subsequent 5 years.
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
Your irregular reminder that PMI/ISM surveys are random noise which are best faded vs. followed, including the services PMI released today.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
November 21, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Your irregular reminder that PMI/ISM surveys are random noise which are best faded vs. followed, including the services PMI released today.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
Boy That Escalated Quickly
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
November 21, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Boy That Escalated Quickly
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
Managed Futures strategies have reliably maintained low correlation over decades to asset markets like stocks, with no evidence these managers have leaned into beta during the recent rally. Trouble is without lower fees managers take most of the alpha for themselves.
November 20, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Managed Futures strategies have reliably maintained low correlation over decades to asset markets like stocks, with no evidence these managers have leaned into beta during the recent rally. Trouble is without lower fees managers take most of the alpha for themselves.
Weekly ADP adds a new timely labor market indicator to the mix. Looks like private sector employment got a bit better in early October, but has softened again into November. And remember this is during the time when ~100k gov employees were rolling off due to the buyout.
November 20, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Weekly ADP adds a new timely labor market indicator to the mix. Looks like private sector employment got a bit better in early October, but has softened again into November. And remember this is during the time when ~100k gov employees were rolling off due to the buyout.