Thanks Fran!!

Thanks, I was really interested because we hadn’t found any pub with them. We did come across versions of FUND with HFC forcing, so you likely recovered them at some point, but when there’s prolific Tols out there it’s hard to find everything. These SF6 links are really helpful and timely though!

Oh this is great, we’d just started looking for existing SF6 estimates, thanks! As you know well, there’s a lot on gdp vs. gwp and not a focus of our paper. Instead, we set out to quantify Kigali with recent advances in IAMs.

can you share a link? Thanks!

Would love to see it :)

I've been thinking about CFC/HFC impacts a lot lately because rocket launches for satellite constellations -- we're estimating up to ~5kt of CFC-11eq will be released for some of the planned systems. Your paper is perfectly timed for me haha

arxiv.org/abs/2309.02338

But also your Q just now made me realize that the reviewers (who were really insightful) asked us to disaggregate the incremental changes between the old and new, but we never did that with the ratios (but we have the data). I’ll look at that and share. Thanks for the suggestion!

Thanks so much! Oof yeah you have it right, that was a surprise to us too. After digging in to why, we concluded it’s a mix of poor climate models in early gen IAMs (and better reduced complexity ones now), scenario projections, and a move to growth-consistent discounting.

Sorry, last post in my disorganized Bluesky thread, #alwayslearning

bsky.app/profile/brya...

Oops, first time with Bluesky threads, here’s the link: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Ungated copy of the paper available here https://bryanparthum.github.io/papers/papers/Tan_Rennels_Parthum_2024.pdf

This was a really fun project with two amazing future stars, Tammy Tan (an ORISE predoc fellow of ours) and Lisa Rennels (another ORISE fellow) and if you are lucky enough to have them apply to your program or department you should do everything you can to hire them.

We then apply our SC-HFCs to the Kigali Amendment, a global agreement addressing hydrofluorocarbon emissions, to estimate the climate benefits over the lifetime of the agreement.

Recognizing that recent advancements have been made in estimating the social cost of greenhouse gases, such as those in Rennert et al 2023 (Nature) and in EPA's recent oil and gas rule, we develop the framework to estimate the SC-HFCs consistent with these cutting edge models.

With this in mind, we estimate paths of additional radiative forcing from their release and integrate them into the existing US Government's models that estimate the social costs of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

Previous attempts to estimate the climate damages associated with their use relied on global warming potentials relative to other greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2). However, we show that this is a poor proxy for estimating their social costs.

What are hydrofluorocarbons? They are a potent greenhouse gas that is used in many cooling technologies (air conditioning/heat pumps, insulations, etc.), the same technologies that are being relied upon to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change.