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Carnegie Politika

@ceip-politika.bsky.social

710 followers 6 following 110 posts

Latest insights from the top experts on Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, part of @carnegieendowment.org https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 5h

Why did Putin appoint former prosecutor general Igor Krasnov to head of Russia’s Supreme Court, and what does this mean for the growing power of Russia’s security forces amid the war with Ukraine? Read Mikhail Komin’s analysis: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Is Russia’s Justice System Reshuffle an Attempt to Rein in the Security Forces?

It seems that Putin decided not to reward Prosecutor General Krasnov for the trillions of rubles he had expropriated for the budget. Instead, he chose to curb Krasnov’s enthusiasm and protect the syst...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 22h

Moscow’s anti-immigrant campaign at home is proving increasingly costly abroad. For the first time in years, Central Asian countries are reassessing their relations with Moscow, writes Galiya Ibragimova: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moscow’s Xenophobic Migration Policy Is Impacting Relations With Central Asia

By stirring up anti-migrant sentiment to distract Russian society from the war in Ukraine, Moscow is alienating its allies in Central Asia. Following Azerbaijan’s example, Central Asian countries are ...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 1d

Sergey Vakulenko's perspective on intensifying Ukrainian strikes against Russia's refineries is featured in a recent article from The Economist.

Ukraine’s hellfire is intensifying the Kremlin’s fuel crisis

Almost half of Russia’s refineries have been hit by drones and missiles

www.economist.com

Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 2d

"Kyiv’s unprecedented strike campaign against Russian oil refineries has inflicted serious—but likely not critical—damage on the country’s ability to produce fuel." Sergey Vakulenko analyzes the impact on Russia’s oil refining capacity.

Have Ukrainian Drones Really Knocked Out 38% of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity?

Kyiv’s unprecedented strike campaign on Russian oil refineries has inflicted serious—but likely not critical—damage on the country’s ability to produce fuel.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 3d

Russia has revived Intervision, a Cold War-era socialist bloc alternative to Eurovision. But despite a slick showbiz veneer, it failed to provide a convincing answer as to why it was necessary in the first place, argues Andrey Shashkov:

Putin’s Nostalgia Makes a Muddle of Russian Eurovision Analog

Despite the organizers’ efforts, Intervision was unable to demonstrate its reason for existence, and ended up with disappointing viewing figures.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 6d

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Justyna Gotkowska discuss the latest Russia-related airspace violations of Denmark, Estonia, Norway, and Poland, and what they mean for NATO: carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

What to Do About Russian Drones in NATO Airspace, with Justyna Gotkowska

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 6d

Russia is once again facing a major demographic crisis, and this time the decline in the birth rate is deeper, the age structure of the population is worse, and Russia's appeal to immigrants has declined, writes Salavat Abylkalikov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Russia’s Current Demographic Crisis Is Its Most Dangerous Yet

The key difference between the current demographic crisis and the previous one is that the latter was significantly mitigated by an element that is now absent: immigration.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 7d

"After three and a half years of war, the Russian government is stabilizing the country’s war-torn public finances not through economic growth, but through tax hikes." Alexandra Prokopenko analyzes Russia's draft budget and the coming tax changes: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

New Budget Confirms the Russian Public Is Paying for the War

After three and a half years of war, the Russian government is stabilizing the country’s war-torn public finances not through economic growth, but through tax hikes.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 9d

"For decades, Dmitry Kozak was one of Putin’s most trusted mediators when it came to post-Soviet countries. But the war in Ukraine has made his services redundant." Vladimir Solovyov on the high-profile departure of the Kremlin deputy chief of staff: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Putin No Longer Needs Negotiator in Chief Dmitry Kozak

For decades, Dmitry Kozak was one of Putin’s most trusted mediators when it came to post-Soviet countries. But the war in Ukraine has made his services redundant.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 14d

Water shortages in Central Asia will worsen significantly when Afghanistan completes a canal diverting substantial volumes of water from the Amu Darya River. And it could escalate regional tensions, writes Galiya Ibragimova. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal Could Trigger a Central Asian Water Crisis

The ambitious irrigation project is becoming a source of growing tension in Central Asia, but none of the region’s countries have been able to come up with an alternative solution.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 16d

Negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time, argues Sergey Vakulenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Can’t Russia and China Agree on the Power of Siberia 2 Gas Pipeline?

Negotiations are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 17d

The painless return of Russia’s fully militarized economy to a civilian model is impossible: no amount of fortune can override the laws of economics, argues Alexandra Prokopenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Can Russia’s Militarized Economy Ever Return to a Civilian Model?

A painless return to the civilian model is impossible: no amount of fortune can override the laws of economics.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 21d

"Should PAS fall short of an outright majority, political instability would likely follow. Potential coalition partners are considered unreliable, leaving any post-election alliance prone to collapse." Balazs Jarabik on Moldova's upcoming vote: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moldova Elections: Managed Stability, Fragile Politics

Should PAS fall short of an outright majority, political instability would likely follow. Potential coalition partners are considered either unreliable or politically compromised, leaving any post-ele...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 22d

Russian drones crossing Belarus’s western border in one direction while a U.S. delegation entered from the other direction on the same day illustrates how little control Lukashenko has over his mission of ending his isolation, writes Artyom Shraibman: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Stray Russian Drones Test Minsk’s Attempts to Improve Relations With the West

Minsk’s modest progress in creating a more predictable and peaceful image could stall at any minute as a result of tensions and developments in the region or a change in mood by Putin or Trump.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 23d

Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the U.S. is ready to invest to make it stick, argues Olesya Vartanyan: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

A Month After Historic Armenia-Azerbaijan Summit, Has Trump Secured a Lasting Peace?

Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the United States is ready to invest to make it stick...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 27d

"The Kremlin never stopped believing Parubiy was the enemy. Even if the reality is that there has been a generational shift in Ukrainian politics, the Kremlin remains stuck in the past." Konstantin Skorkin on the assassination of a Euromaidan leader: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Kremlin’s History Obsession Suggests Culpability in Parubiy Assassination

The Kremlin never stopped believing Parubiy was the enemy and is still locked in a polemic with the leaders of Ukraine’s Euromaidan. That could have made Parubiy a target for “retribution.”

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 28d

While the West is using customs duties to try to head off an influx of Chinese electric cars, the countries of Central Asia are doing everything they can to welcome them. Temur Umarov and Roman Vakulchuk assess the consequences for the region: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

China Has Flooded Central Asia With Electric Cars—the Impact Will Be Long-Lasting

By entering this new stage of development of the automotive industry via Chinese electric cars, Central Asia will eventually be forced to adopt Chinese standards for the industry’s development, integr...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 29d

The emergence of Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov as the frontrunner to head Russia’s Supreme Court heralds little legal change, but does shed light on Kremlin priorities. Read Vladislav Gorin's article: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Putin’s Supreme Court Pick Heralds Further State Appropriation of Assets

The emergence of Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov as the frontrunner to head Russia’s Supreme Court heralds little legal change, but does shed light on Kremlin priorities.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · Sep 9

"After last week’s events in China, it will be Trump, not Putin, who has to try to prove that he is not the one facing international isolation," argues Alexander Baunov in his latest article: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Putin’s Diplomatic Roll Leaves Trump In an Awkward Position

The opportunity to outweigh the current impression of Putin’s diplomatic tour de force will only come in November, when Johannesburg hosts the G20 summit. But after this week’s events in China, it wil...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · Sep 8

Putin is no pragmatic decision-maker, and the deepening vassalage to China is his own choice. America’s chances of reversing this trend remain elusive, and recent tariffs against India may only push Putin closer into Xi’s embrace, writes Alexander Gabuev: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

With Putin in Charge, Russia’s Vassalage to China Will Only Deepen

Moscow should be looking for ways to correct its course and restore balance in its foreign policy, instead of putting all its eggs in the China basket. But Putin is no pragmatic decision-maker, and the deepening vassalage to China is his own choice.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · Sep 8

Back in the spring, the Syrian authorities were trying to push Russia out of the country. Now they are prepared to consider expanding the Russian presence to counterbalance Israel’s interventions, argues Nikita Smagin: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The Rapprochement Between Russia and Syria Is a Temporary Necessity

The Al-Sharaa government ultimately wants to establish control over the entire territory of Syria. Over time, Russia’s presence will become an obstacle to that goal.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · Sep 5

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @radchenko.bsky.social discuss Sino-Russian relations in the past and present, and examine how strong the bond really is between the two.

Better Than Ever? Russia-China Relations, with Sergey Radchenko

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · Sep 4

"[Drone] damage to Russian refineries has helped send gasoline prices to multi-year highs, but the government has options to mitigate the shortages." Read Sergey Vakulenko's analysis of the gasoline crisis in Russia: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Can Russia Weather a Fuel Crisis Caused by Ukrainian Drone Attacks?

Damage to Russian refineries has helped send gasoline prices to multi-year highs, but the government has options to mitigate the shortages.

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · Aug 26

The Alaska summit and Trump's meeting with Zelensky and European leaders have given new hope for an end to the war. But we can talk about only tactical successes, but strategically, there are only more losses in store, argues Tatiana Stanovaya: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Tactical Victories in Ukraine Peace Talks Will Only Lead to Strategic Defeat

Putin flatly refuses to understand that it is not the West that does not allow Ukraine to become “friendly,” but that Ukrainian society and elites will never accept the capitulatory conditions that Mo...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · Aug 18

"Linking a ceasefire to a comprehensive peace treaty creates a possible opening, but it could also mean that Ukraine becomes a hostage for extracting concessions from Western countries." Alexander Baunov on the key outcome of the Trump-Putin summit: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Alaska Summit Leaves Ukraine a Hostage to Russia’s Demands of the West

Linking a ceasefire to a comprehensive peace treaty creates a possible opening, but it could also mean that Ukraine becomes a hostage for extracting concessions from Western countries.

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