New: The US Democracy Threat Index - a collaboration between Bright Line Watch & @metaculus.bsky.social that will aggregate real-time forecasts of risks to democracy across 39 questions of concern

Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39...

Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...

Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, and the AI Futures team wrote AI 2027, a detailed scenario predicting an intelligence explosion and US-China AI arms race.

How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/a...