Cesar A. Hidalgo
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cesifoti.bsky.social
Cesar A. Hidalgo
@cesifoti.bsky.social
@cesifoti
Just got my hands on the physical copies of this cutie patootie. We will be launching this book in London in about a month.
October 15, 2025 at 3:56 AM
The US-Mexico border is not a dividing line, but a seam connecting thousands of value chains.

Explore what it means to make something in North America at bordervalue.com
September 14, 2025 at 4:46 PM
This is the best book I’ve read this year. It is also an important book. In a world obsessed with AI, Max Bennett approaches intelligence from a key point of view: biology.
September 8, 2025 at 3:35 PM
The political asymmetry of the fertility crisis.
September 7, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Our main model is a generalization of Kremer’s O-Ring model with factors that can be made specific to each economy and activity. In this model, the output of an economy in an activity is proportional to the probability that it is not missing the factors that the activity requires.
June 24, 2025 at 6:33 PM
In the product space, the core-periphery structure tells us that capabilities are correlated (e.g. Singapore scores high across all capabilities & Mali scores low). In the case of the research space, the ring structure is given by the fact that each field is only similar to a few other fields.
June 24, 2025 at 6:33 PM
We also show that our model explains differences in network structure, like those observed between the product space (a network with a core and a periphery) and the research space (which is shaped as a ring).
June 24, 2025 at 6:33 PM
In a single-factor model, ECI separates economies that are better or worse endowed with the factor. In a model with many factors, ECI tells us which economies have a higher probability of being endowed with many of them--regardless of what these factors are.
June 24, 2025 at 6:33 PM
NEW PAPER: The Theory of Economic Complexity

The Economic Complexity Index or ECI is a widely used empirical tool with an unclear theoretical basis. In this paper, we change that by formally deriving ECI for several production functions and showing what it really does. 👇🧵

arxiv.org/html/2506.1882…
June 24, 2025 at 6:33 PM
What is the geography of your academic impact?

Today we released new maps in Rankless.

Explore citation maps for 3.8M+ scholars, 29k+ institutions, & 100s of countries.

rankless.org/countries/chl
June 18, 2025 at 3:24 PM
17. Relatedness-complexity diagrams have been around for a long time (in 2011 we published them under the name: Export-Opportunity Spectrum (sorry for that :-)).

But more recently, they have become a core tool for the consulting industry focused on smart specialization.
March 12, 2025 at 2:54 PM
4. So the heuristic that everyone has been using (I am guilty of this too) is to trade-off these variables by focusing on an "efficient frontier." These are products that are relatively close and valuable.
March 12, 2025 at 2:54 PM
3. Ideally, economies want to focus on activities that are related (easies to enter) and also valuable (high complexity).

But that's not always an option.

Developing economies are often "close" to low complexity activities and "far" from valuable activities.
March 12, 2025 at 2:54 PM
1. New Working Paper:

Optimizing Economic Complexity

For more than a decade scholars have been using relatedness-complexity diagrams to identify industrial diversification opportunities.

But these diagrams suffer from some important limitations ... 🧵
March 12, 2025 at 2:54 PM
The Infinite Alphabet is complete!

After two years of hard work, I just sent the final draft to my editor.

It should be available in bookstores starting on November of this year.
January 7, 2025 at 9:26 PM
1. When you travel for work you see few sights but many faces. You learn directly from people who tell you about the best & worst of their countries.

I arrived in Indonesia 🇮🇩 last Saturday …
December 4, 2024 at 11:58 AM
Did you know that Mexico is the number one source of imported beer in America?

This might surprise you, but Mexico is the number one exporter of beer in the world, far ahead from the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany.

Much of this beer ends in the US.
/7
November 26, 2024 at 2:44 PM
Canada's main trade partner in the United States is Illinois, which is a big importer of Canadian oil.

But Michigan & Texas also have significant connections with Canada.

For Michigan, it is mainly automotive. For Texas it is assembled cars & oil.
/5
November 26, 2024 at 2:44 PM
But what states are more integrated with Mexico & Canada?

For Mexico, this is Texas, California, & Michigan.

For Texas, Mexico represents 39% of its imports & 27% of its exports.

For Michigan, Mexico & Canada add up to more than 65% of its imports.
/4
November 26, 2024 at 2:44 PM
Trade with Canada is a bit different.

Canada is in the car industry too, but it is also a key source of energy for the United States.

This year alone the US imported from Canada over $66B in crude petroleum and over $14B in refined petroleum and petroleum gas.
/3
November 26, 2024 at 2:44 PM
But there is a flip side to this trade.

US-Mexico trade is largely about North American value chains.

The US exports many vehicle and electronic parts to Mexico.
/3
November 26, 2024 at 2:44 PM
Mexico is by far the number one trade partner of the US.

It is well integrated into American value chains, especially in electronics and automotive.

This year the US imported from Mexico:

🚙 $31B Cars
💻 $28B Computers
🚚 $24B Delivery Trucks
/2
November 26, 2024 at 2:44 PM
What states and industries will bear the impact of new tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products?

Mexico & Canada are key trade partners for the US. They represent 28% of US imports & 33% of US exports.

So there is a lot to unpack on this monster thread on trade 🧵👇/1
November 26, 2024 at 2:44 PM
Hi,
Where can you change this? (On mobile).
Asking for a friend 🙃
November 20, 2024 at 6:24 PM