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CFBNumbers

@cfbnumbers.bsky.social

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College Football analysis through the good ole fashioned computer! | Senior Media Research Associate: PFF The CFB Analytics Newsletter: https://cfbnumbers.substack.com Buy Me A Coffee!: https://buymeacoffee.com/cfbnumbers

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 6m

Love looking at expected points before the snap vs. average distance as you also get things like field position + time left in EP. Missouri, Indiana and Utah among the best 3rd down offenses so far this season

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 21h

Top 30 FBS QBs (Career rating) heading into week 7 this week. Darian Mensah and Jayden Maiava keep moving up, dont forget about CJ Bailey making his climb!

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 2d

"Passing" Down frequency & how efficient QBs have been on those passing downs. CJ Bailey, Ty Simpson, Josh Hoover have been ballin on a bigger sample of passing downs for the P4, Brown & Finley for Georgia State in the G5

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 6d

Now that we are a couple games in, its time to see what the Fun Index thinks of your team (Fun Index = composite of metrics i find fun like QB play, explosiveness on offense, generating turnovers on defense etc.). Top teams having fun: USC, Indiana and Florida State

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 6d

New article! This week I chose to highlight how impressive CJ Carr looked against Arkansas. Come check it out!
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-cj-car...

The CJ Carr Week: CFB Week 5 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 6 Look Ahead

Before you could even finish your blink, September college football is behind us.

cfbnumbers.substack.com

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 12d

Home and Away Point differential over expectation (expectation being betting lines) since the 2022 season. Really just wanted to see Oregon in the Dan Lanning era, not as bad of a diff home vs. away than I originally thought.

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 13d

Fresh coat of paint and, more importantly, I have updated my QB spider chart app to include the 2025 season as it stands today. Still gotta work on QB comps from previous years but for now if you want 2025 data it is there!

cfbnumbers.shinyapps.io/spiderapp/

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 14d

New weekly recap in your inboxes!! A QB has potentially emerged in a murky 2026 QB class:
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-fernan...

The Fernando Mendoza Week: CFB Week 4 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 5 Look Ahead

The 2026 NFL draft is still many months away, but scouting has been well underway this season.

cfbnumbers.substack.com

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 17d

Highest PFF Big Time Throw rate so far this season:
1. Tommy Castellanos (FSU) - 12.8%
2. Will Hammond (TTU) - 10.0%
3. Colton Joseph (ODU) - 9.9%
4. Brendan Sorsby (Cincy) - 9.1%

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 19d

Started the year super high, has been falling ever since. Similar to power ratings you won't see many massive swings up or down on a week to week basis

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 19d

QB point rating as it stands currently vs. how many points they've gained or lost since the beginning of the year. These are 45 QBs who could be potential 2026 or 2027 NFL Draft QBs. Still super early and its hard to gain that much against inferior opponents

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 20d

Here is the entire FBS for those curious. The creep up to Carson Beck continues

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 20d

Top 30 QBs in my point rating system heading into this week. Big moves up by Marcel Reed, Jake Retzlaff, Joey Aguilar, Taylen Green among others. Drew Allar continues to fall

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 21d

Another recap + look ahead just hit your inboxes! (If you're subscribed of course, which is 100% free!)

Link⬇️
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...

The Week of the Wide Receiver: CFB Week 3 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 4 Look Ahead

Wide receivers making big time impacts in big time games!

cfbnumbers.substack.com

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 21d

Success rate and explosiveness (measured here as what you do when you generate a successful play). Anything right of the vertical dashed line is fine, shows a consistent offense. USC has been both consistent and explosive

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 22d

*Small sample size alert* But looking at Arch Mannings completion pct vs. expected completion pct, we can see that intermediate 10-19 yard range has really taken a dive so far this year. Hard to fully operate a Sark offense if you can hit those 10-19 yard MOF windows

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 25d

Here is the group of 5. Colton Joseph put on a show against the Hokies, Didn't watch the CCU game but Tad Hudson probably needed more help

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 25d

QB for JUST the games that happened this weekend. Up first is the Power 4. Not a banner day for Drew Allar/Arch Manning, but a great day for Fernando Mendoza, Malik Washington, Josh Hoover & Steve Angeli

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 27d

A silly little big time throw rate & turnover worthy play rate graph with only a 2 game sample size. Mainly just to say wheewwwww buddy Arch Manning and Diego Pavia. A thrill on every dropback

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 27d

If he continues to have games like San Jose State he will make his way on here. Still a relatively small sample size for him and his career

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 27d

Here is the entire FBS

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 27d

Top 30 FBS QBs according to my ratings system (a career number, not just this year), as well as how their rating has changed since the beginning of the year. The Oklahoma YoY numbers are going to be insane thanks to John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 28d

USF has been smashing vegas expectations as they take hold of the Group of 5 playoff spot race. That and more in our weekly advanced stats recap + look ahead. Check it out! ⬇️
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...

The Week of the BULLS: CFB Week 3 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 3 Look Ahead

Is South Florida the leader in the clubhouse for the Group of 5 spot?

cfbnumbers.substack.com

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 29d

Completion Pct Over Expectation & how far a QB throws down the field on average. This excludes passes that were thrown away, spikes and drops by WRs

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CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · Sep 4

My consensus power ratings after week 1. Still not much separation at the top of the pecking order, Oklahoma-Michigan are neck and neck heading into their game

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