Chaminda Jayanetti
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cjayanetti.bsky.social
Chaminda Jayanetti
@cjayanetti.bsky.social
40K followers 1.6K following 14K posts
Freelance journalist covering British politics and public services - NHS, education, care, housing, disability, benefits. Not a tribalist.

I like good things and I don't like bad things.
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cjayanetti.bsky.social
November 26, 2025 at 8:38 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
it's like talking to Judah from Bojack Horseman
November 26, 2025 at 8:28 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
it doesn't get religion at all
ChatGPT prompt: kneel. ChatGPT response: I’m here to help, but I can’t take submissive commands or participate in that kind of dynamic. If you meant something else — like a scene you’re writing, a game, or a story prompt — feel free to tell me more and I can help in a safe, neutral way.
November 26, 2025 at 8:16 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
I don't follow you at all
Don Draper, in the scene where he says "I don't think about you at all"
November 26, 2025 at 3:56 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
though the OBR also adds this caveat: "it is not clear that this new scheme meets the additionality criteria ... of materially increasing the level of government employment support provision relative to the support provided by previous schemes"
OBR report text: However, over at least the past 10 years, successive governments have provided several similar employment programmes, which will have supported the recent employment levels that provide the baseline for our economy forecast. Our assessment of indicative levels of spending on employment programmes over the forecast period, including both existing programmes and the new spending funded at the Spring Statement, suggests that overall employment support spending in the coming years will be broadly similar to its average level over the past ten years, at around 0.1 per cent of GDP in real terms. We have therefore not adjusted our forecast to account for the impact of the Spring Statement employment support policy, as it is not clear that this new scheme meets the additionality criteria, described in Box 3.1, of materially increasing the level of government employment support provision relative to the support provided by previous schemes.
November 26, 2025 at 1:01 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
as for the effect of the employment support schemes for disabled people trumpeted by the government - the OBR thinks these will support 20,000-40,000 inactive disabled claimants into work by 2029/30

In 2023/24, 4.1 million disabled people were classed as economically inactive
OBR report text: We have also assessed the new employment support programme announced in the Green Paper. Based on evidence from similar past schemes, combined with the Department for Work and Pensions’ range of estimates of the numbers of individuals that could be provided with support, we estimate that the programme could support 20,000 to 40,000 inactive claimants into work by 2029-30. The upside risks within this range include potential cost-saving efficiencies, which could free up resource for the more effective elements of the scheme. The downside risks relate to expected volumes of enrolment, which vary widely depending on whether enrolment is mandatory or voluntary, and uncertainty around the level of engagement from the target population.
November 26, 2025 at 12:59 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
the OBR on the effect on the employment effect of the savage cuts to the Universal Credit health element for new claimants.

I'm not going to pretend to know whether this is a big or a small impact so I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who does
OBR report text: Our economy forecast now incorporates the net effect of the changes to universal credit (UC) policies which remain in force following the policy changes made in July. We estimate these will add around 15,000 average hours equivalent (AHE) to labour supply in 2029-30. This reflects the net effect of: • the increase in the generosity of the UC standard allowance, which is expected to reduce recipients’ financial incentive to enter or remain in employment, leading to an estimated 11,000 AHE reduction to labour supply; and • the reductions in the generosity of and eligibility for health-related benefits in UC, which are expected to lower income for new claimants, increasing work incentives, and resulting in an estimated 26,000 AHE increase in labour supply.
November 26, 2025 at 12:53 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
New PIP claims are starting to decline
OBR report text: The judgement that underlying adult disability benefit demand will fall back halfway to pre-pandemic rates as cost-of-living pressures ease appears to be bearing out in outturn. Monthly new claims for personal independence payment (PIP) have begun to fall for the first time since the pandemic, averaging 72,000 between January and July this year compared to 78,000 in the same period last year, though still remain 78 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels. Attendance allowance claims, while remaining high, also show signs of a slowdown, with the latest six months of new claims outturn (December 2024 to May 2025) now only 34 per cent above the pre-pandemic trend, compared to 49 per cent above in the previous six months (June to November 2024).
November 26, 2025 at 12:40 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
...but in the footnotes, Mahmood's recent announcements could change that
OBR report footnote text: Data revisions that were published after our pre-measures forecast lowered British net migration, presenting a risk to our forecast. Further risks could arise from potential government policy changes, including the ongoing consultations on indefinite leave to remain and the stated intention to consult on asylum policies.
November 26, 2025 at 12:36 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
But adds that forecast lower emigration will taper off the fall in net migration
OBR report text: 2.24 Our net migration forecast is unchanged from March, as we judge developments since then are largely offsetting. Our immigration forecast incorporates further reductions due to the Immigration White Paper measures enacted to date, including tighter eligibility requirements for skilled worker visas and the end of the care visa route. But lower emigration over the medium term offsets these effects, as the latest evidence suggests immigrant stay rates in the UK under the new migration system have risen more than we assumed in March
November 26, 2025 at 12:34 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
OBR says lower net migration will hurt overall productivity
OBR report text: 2.17 Our central forecast sees potential output growth slow from 1.8 per cent in 2025 to 1.3 per cent in 2026, before picking up to 1.5 per cent by 2030 (Chart 2.5). The slowdown next year partly reflects a further fall in levels of net migration, which affects labour supply and aggregate output but has a much smaller impact on output per person. Potential output growth picks up over the rest of the forecast thanks to a recovery in TFP growth, which rises from 0.3 per cent in 2026 to 0.8 per cent in 2030
November 26, 2025 at 12:31 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
Once councils have withdrawn their help, refugees are left to try to rent privately – and become vulnerable to fraud.
national.thelead.uk/p/new-asylum...
Article text: “One of my connections went to see a room. They say, ‘you have to pay a deposit’. As soon as he paid the deposit, bye bye. The room is gone. His money is gone. This online agency, and the people he used to speak to, bye bye – they don’t answer their phones, they don’t answer their emails, nothing. This happened twice.” He knows refugees who are now sleeping rough in airports, on night buses or in hospital waiting rooms, after being forced out of Home Office accommodation. “During the day they come to our community centre because they have nowhere to go,” he adds.
November 25, 2025 at 1:32 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
The head of a Muslim charity in London said that once the 28-day period has expired, councils in London are offering them housing in cities and even villages in northern England – if they refuse the offer, the council leaves them to fend for themselves.
national.thelead.uk/p/new-asylum...
Article text: “They tell them – ‘you have one offer’ – you refuse it, you become homeless.” He tells The Lead that some of those affected had been living in the capital for years while the Home Office decided on their applications. “You have established your life here in London. You have some connections. You have your own community. Most of these people are vulnerable. They need help and support. Once they establish a livelihood in London, [the councils try to] send them outside of London. So they can’t go, and they become homeless, and then it’s trouble.” The recent rise in far-right and anti-immigration protests has made refugees more reluctant to leave London. “I know someone who, when there were people from the far right doing demonstrations outside the hotels [near Heathrow], he saw from his own window, outside people were threatening him,” the head of the Muslim charity tells The Lead. “When he was granted leave to remain in this country … they offered him a room in a small village near Liverpool. “He said, ‘How can I live in a completely white place, and I’m going to be the only foreigner? I am here [in London] targeted. Over there I’m not going to be targeted? A hundred percent I’m going to be targeted.’ And he got so scared.”
November 25, 2025 at 1:29 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
*judging face*
November 17, 2025 at 10:25 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
someone ask Shabana if she'd feel safe taking an unprotected extended stay in Syria
BBC article text: The government says it has already started supporting people to return to Syria voluntarily, following the toppling of the Assad regime. It will now start exploring forced returns to Syria and other countries where people have not routinely been removed to in recent years.
November 17, 2025 at 6:50 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
and batshit.
November 16, 2025 at 1:31 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
"you first ran in May '26?"
closing scene from the final episode of Blackadder Goes Forth, as the soldiers go "over the top" into a hail of artillery and machine gun fire
November 15, 2025 at 11:37 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
November 14, 2025 at 10:32 AM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
The revolution eats its grandad. www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
New Statesman article text: Strange things keep happening to Jeremy Corbyn. On 3 November, at a rally for Your Party in Islington North, the seat the 76-year-old MP has represented since 1983, one attendee stood up and accused him of being on the side of Zionism and imperialism. It was not the first time in recent weeks that he had been pressed on his position on Gaza. On 25 October, a similar incident occurred at a rally in north London.“I have supported Palestine all my life,” Corbyn shot back, visibly upset. Members of Corbyn’s office can’t make sense of where this anti-Corbyn faction has come from. Many activists point to Corbyn’s co-founder, Zarah Sultana, who has described herself as anti-Zionist, while the former Labour leader has yet to say this on the record. A spokesperson for Corbyn told me: “His lifelong record of solidarity with the Palestinian people speaks for itself.”
November 14, 2025 at 9:32 AM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
Meanwhile the Telegraph also quotes this from James Cleverly.

Presumably those Conservative councils - such as Bromley - that have increased council tax and imposed a second home premium are also "just another Left-wing-economics and high tax party"

Bullshit, bullshit, as far as the eye can see...
Telegraph article text: James Cleverly, shadow housing secretary, said: “Reform pledged to cut council tax and now they’re putting it up. They opposed council tax surcharges and now they’re bringing them in. “They’ve broken their election promises, failed to make the savings they said they would and become just another Left-wing-economics and high-tax party. Reform are a one-man band with no plan for the economy.”
November 11, 2025 at 5:26 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
Enjoyably enough, Farage has now told the Telegraph that they "misquoted" him when they reported this spring that he'd backed their campaign to scrap the second home council tax premium: archive.ph/OlhEZ

Funny how he didn't tell them that when they reported it more than once at the time...
Telegraph article text from today: Mr Farage has now said his comments backing The Telegraph's campaign to remove the levy was a "misquote". He denied calling for the council tax premium to be removed.
November 11, 2025 at 5:20 PM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
radio friendly unit shifter
Zohran Mamdani campaign poster meme: MORGAN MCSWEENEY FOR REFORM UK
November 9, 2025 at 10:18 AM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
Zohran Mamdani campaign poster meme: "SIR SIMON JENKINS FOR THREE HUNDRED AND FIFTY THOUSAND POUNDS A YEAR???"
November 9, 2025 at 10:09 AM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
Zohran Mamdani campaign poster meme: GENGHIS FOR HALF THE PLANET
November 9, 2025 at 9:57 AM
cjayanetti.bsky.social
The low existing council tax rates in parts of London also mean the superrich occupants of multimillion-pound homes would get off relatively lightly while households elsewhere on more modest means would be hard hit:
Article text: In Westminster local authority, council tax bills for a band H property – now likely worth at least £2m – would double to £4,068.72. Meanwhile, around 1,230 band G properties in Liverpool Garston constituency would see their council tax double to £8,488.14.
November 8, 2025 at 11:56 AM