Luck dashboard thru week 6:

Most impactful plays:
- DEN recovers own fumble in Q4 (+17.3% for DEN, -17.3% for NYJ)
- CAR dropped pass to int in Q1 (+16.5% for DAL)
- CHI game-winning FG in Q4 (-14.5% for WAS)

New dynamic kickoff -- where have teams kicked the ball thru week 4?

Luck dashboard thru wk 4.

Most impactful plays:
- GB made FG at end of Q4 to tie (-22% for DAL)
- SEA made FG at end of Q4 to win (-18% for ARI)
- ARI dropped pass to interception in Q2 (+17% for SEA)

2025 Luck dashboard thru wk 3.

Most impactful plays:
- W1: PIT 60-yd FG in Q4 (-57% for NYJ)
- W2: DAL 64-yd FG in Q4 (-43% for NYG)
- W1: CLE dropped pass to int in Q4 (+43% for CIN)
- W1: DAL dropped pass in Q4 (+40% for PHI)
- W2: KC dropped pass to int in Q4 (+34% for PHI)

Here is how non-Power conferences would look if they were created purely to minimize the average distance between teams (17 teams per conf).

Avg distance between teams in same conference:
- Current: 625 miles
- Optimal: 516 miles

When trailing by one score on the last play of a game, offenses face a choice: attempt a Hail Mary (deep pass to the end zone) or a Hook & Ladder (lateralling between teammates moving towards end zone).

Here's how often teams chose each strategy since 2018, by field position:

With the college football returning, here is how Power 4 conferences would look if they were created purely to minimize the average distance between teams (17 teams per conf).

Avg distance between teams in same conference:
- Current: 787 miles
- Optimal: 479 miles

Correlation between preseason and regular season performance in NFL has decreased significantly in the last 5 years.

My friend Michael Mackelvie put together an IG short summarizing this finding:

www.instagram.com/reel/DN0oUFX...

#USOpen 🎾 weekend! Here's a comparison of observed vs optimal WTA player travel between WTA 1000s & Grand Slams:
- Tournament Schedule route: 4,503 km/2,798 mi average b/w tournaments
- Optimal route: 2,621 km/1,629 mi average b/w tournaments

With the NFL season starting in two weeks, here is how NFL conferences would look if they were created purely to minimize the average distance between teams.

Avg distance between teams in same conference:
- Current: 1103 miles
- Optimal: 785 miles

How has preseason playtime impacted the link between preseason and regular season performance?

From 2000–2017, there was a weak positive correlation (R = 0.24) between preseason and regular season net points per game.

From 2017–2024, that correlation dropped to just 0.05.

With the MLB All-Star game tonight, here is how MLB divisions would look if they were created purely to minimize the average distance between teams.

Avg distance between teams in same division:
- Current: 606 miles
- Optimal: 421 miles

Baker Mayfield boasted the highest EPA/play, Success Rate and Completion % Over Expected for all passers in the 2025 #ProBowlGames .

Gardner Minshew still leads in career EPA/Play & Success Rate from his 2023 appearance.