Dmitri Alperovitch
@dmitri.silverado.org
Geopolitics, Russia, China, Cyber
Chairman @silverado.org
Author of WorldOnTheBrink.com
Host GeopoliticsDecanted.com podcast
Founder Alperovitch Institute for Cybersecurity Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS
Co-Founder CrowdStrike
@DAlperovitch elsewhere
Chairman @silverado.org
Author of WorldOnTheBrink.com
Host GeopoliticsDecanted.com podcast
Founder Alperovitch Institute for Cybersecurity Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS
Co-Founder CrowdStrike
@DAlperovitch elsewhere
Then the enemy sends another drone tuned to a different frequency that is not being blocked and takes out the guy with the expensive jamming backpack. “It’s useless. It’s like wearing a good luck charm”
May 31, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Then the enemy sends another drone tuned to a different frequency that is not being blocked and takes out the guy with the expensive jamming backpack. “It’s useless. It’s like wearing a good luck charm”
Personnel protection:
To protect an individual infantryman, only one thing helps - running fast. Backpack mounted jammers don’t work. There are always frequencies that jammers don’t cover.
To protect an individual infantryman, only one thing helps - running fast. Backpack mounted jammers don’t work. There are always frequencies that jammers don’t cover.
May 31, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Personnel protection:
To protect an individual infantryman, only one thing helps - running fast. Backpack mounted jammers don’t work. There are always frequencies that jammers don’t cover.
To protect an individual infantryman, only one thing helps - running fast. Backpack mounted jammers don’t work. There are always frequencies that jammers don’t cover.
Lasers:
Lasers don’t work well at long distances. They also don’t work well in cloudy/heavy moisture environment. Need dry weather and clear skies and short distance (150m or less) to be effective. Both Russia and Ukraine are actively working on short range laser systems
Lasers don’t work well at long distances. They also don’t work well in cloudy/heavy moisture environment. Need dry weather and clear skies and short distance (150m or less) to be effective. Both Russia and Ukraine are actively working on short range laser systems
May 31, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Lasers:
Lasers don’t work well at long distances. They also don’t work well in cloudy/heavy moisture environment. Need dry weather and clear skies and short distance (150m or less) to be effective. Both Russia and Ukraine are actively working on short range laser systems
Lasers don’t work well at long distances. They also don’t work well in cloudy/heavy moisture environment. Need dry weather and clear skies and short distance (150m or less) to be effective. Both Russia and Ukraine are actively working on short range laser systems
Anti-Drone Nets:
Nets are effective but not fullproof. For valuable targets, 2 drones can be sent - one to cut the net, another to hit the target inside the net corridor
Nets are effective but not fullproof. For valuable targets, 2 drones can be sent - one to cut the net, another to hit the target inside the net corridor
May 31, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Anti-Drone Nets:
Nets are effective but not fullproof. For valuable targets, 2 drones can be sent - one to cut the net, another to hit the target inside the net corridor
Nets are effective but not fullproof. For valuable targets, 2 drones can be sent - one to cut the net, another to hit the target inside the net corridor
Drones also carry up to 3kg of explosives - if you shoot it with a shotgun at close range, you will get hit with a shrapnel. A rifle can keep you at a safer distance and keep a high rate of fire to saturate the air with projectiles.
May 31, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Drones also carry up to 3kg of explosives - if you shoot it with a shotgun at close range, you will get hit with a shrapnel. A rifle can keep you at a safer distance and keep a high rate of fire to saturate the air with projectiles.
Drone countermeasures:
Most effective countermeasures are special anti-drone rounds for rifles/machine guns - plastic cartridges that burst open when fired and release pellets. With each shots, 3 projectiles are fired
Why not shotguns? Carrying another gun+ammo with a standard gun is not practical
Most effective countermeasures are special anti-drone rounds for rifles/machine guns - plastic cartridges that burst open when fired and release pellets. With each shots, 3 projectiles are fired
Why not shotguns? Carrying another gun+ammo with a standard gun is not practical
May 31, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Drone countermeasures:
Most effective countermeasures are special anti-drone rounds for rifles/machine guns - plastic cartridges that burst open when fired and release pellets. With each shots, 3 projectiles are fired
Why not shotguns? Carrying another gun+ammo with a standard gun is not practical
Most effective countermeasures are special anti-drone rounds for rifles/machine guns - plastic cartridges that burst open when fired and release pellets. With each shots, 3 projectiles are fired
Why not shotguns? Carrying another gun+ammo with a standard gun is not practical
Recon drones:
With the rise of Ukrainian interceptor drones, effectiveness of Russian recon Orlan and Lancet drones has taken a hit. Russians are responding by adding rear-facing cameras with autonomous recognition of interceptor drones, which then executes an evasive maneuver
With the rise of Ukrainian interceptor drones, effectiveness of Russian recon Orlan and Lancet drones has taken a hit. Russians are responding by adding rear-facing cameras with autonomous recognition of interceptor drones, which then executes an evasive maneuver
May 31, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Recon drones:
With the rise of Ukrainian interceptor drones, effectiveness of Russian recon Orlan and Lancet drones has taken a hit. Russians are responding by adding rear-facing cameras with autonomous recognition of interceptor drones, which then executes an evasive maneuver
With the rise of Ukrainian interceptor drones, effectiveness of Russian recon Orlan and Lancet drones has taken a hit. Russians are responding by adding rear-facing cameras with autonomous recognition of interceptor drones, which then executes an evasive maneuver
Some Geran drones even have built-in sirens like the Nazi Stuka bombers to intimidate and terrorize. Russian approach has been to start with someone else’s base model (i.e. Shahed) and then improve upon it and develop independently
May 31, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Some Geran drones even have built-in sirens like the Nazi Stuka bombers to intimidate and terrorize. Russian approach has been to start with someone else’s base model (i.e. Shahed) and then improve upon it and develop independently
Shahed drones:
Russian variants of Shahed (Geran) have moved far away from its Iranian origins. They have added stealth coating, jet engines and used Wankel engines that create high frequency pitch during flight
Russian variants of Shahed (Geran) have moved far away from its Iranian origins. They have added stealth coating, jet engines and used Wankel engines that create high frequency pitch during flight
May 31, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Shahed drones:
Russian variants of Shahed (Geran) have moved far away from its Iranian origins. They have added stealth coating, jet engines and used Wankel engines that create high frequency pitch during flight
Russian variants of Shahed (Geran) have moved far away from its Iranian origins. They have added stealth coating, jet engines and used Wankel engines that create high frequency pitch during flight
So Russian soldiers often pool together their own money to buy a dozen cheap FPVs just in case they need them to repell an assault. They become a last resort defense tool. But heavy drones are too expensive to buy privately - >$10k. They have to be procured by the military
May 31, 2025 at 8:07 PM
So Russian soldiers often pool together their own money to buy a dozen cheap FPVs just in case they need them to repell an assault. They become a last resort defense tool. But heavy drones are too expensive to buy privately - >$10k. They have to be procured by the military
Anti-tank mines:
Baba Yaga drones turned out to be very effective after Ukrainians modified them to drop anti-tank mines. Ukrainian mines with 6-8kg of TNT can cause serious blasts
Baba Yaga drones turned out to be very effective after Ukrainians modified them to drop anti-tank mines. Ukrainian mines with 6-8kg of TNT can cause serious blasts
May 31, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Anti-tank mines:
Baba Yaga drones turned out to be very effective after Ukrainians modified them to drop anti-tank mines. Ukrainian mines with 6-8kg of TNT can cause serious blasts
Baba Yaga drones turned out to be very effective after Ukrainians modified them to drop anti-tank mines. Ukrainian mines with 6-8kg of TNT can cause serious blasts
Heavy drones:
Ukrainian Baba Yaga drones : drop bombs, lay mines remotely, deliver supplies. The Russians haven’t yet developed an equivalent heavy drone because the military had dismissed it as not a real battlefield tool.
Ukrainian Baba Yaga drones : drop bombs, lay mines remotely, deliver supplies. The Russians haven’t yet developed an equivalent heavy drone because the military had dismissed it as not a real battlefield tool.
May 31, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Heavy drones:
Ukrainian Baba Yaga drones : drop bombs, lay mines remotely, deliver supplies. The Russians haven’t yet developed an equivalent heavy drone because the military had dismissed it as not a real battlefield tool.
Ukrainian Baba Yaga drones : drop bombs, lay mines remotely, deliver supplies. The Russians haven’t yet developed an equivalent heavy drone because the military had dismissed it as not a real battlefield tool.
Remote piloting:
Russians have developed a system called Orbit to fly drones with skilled operators based in Moscow, far removed from the battlefield. Ukrainians first pioneered this tactic with the use of radio relays and internet bridges using Starlink long ago.
Russians have developed a system called Orbit to fly drones with skilled operators based in Moscow, far removed from the battlefield. Ukrainians first pioneered this tactic with the use of radio relays and internet bridges using Starlink long ago.
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Remote piloting:
Russians have developed a system called Orbit to fly drones with skilled operators based in Moscow, far removed from the battlefield. Ukrainians first pioneered this tactic with the use of radio relays and internet bridges using Starlink long ago.
Russians have developed a system called Orbit to fly drones with skilled operators based in Moscow, far removed from the battlefield. Ukrainians first pioneered this tactic with the use of radio relays and internet bridges using Starlink long ago.
Russian fiber optic drones later started to target these EW trucks first and then use regular drones with larger payloads to target other vehicles and infantry that were now left without EW protection. Main use for fiber optics is for neutralizing enemy jammers
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Russian fiber optic drones later started to target these EW trucks first and then use regular drones with larger payloads to target other vehicles and infantry that were now left without EW protection. Main use for fiber optics is for neutralizing enemy jammers
Kursk:
Ukrainians initially succeeded in Kursk with the help of large use of EW equipment. They brought in pickup trucks with antennas to jam lots of frequencies.
Ukrainians initially succeeded in Kursk with the help of large use of EW equipment. They brought in pickup trucks with antennas to jam lots of frequencies.
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Kursk:
Ukrainians initially succeeded in Kursk with the help of large use of EW equipment. They brought in pickup trucks with antennas to jam lots of frequencies.
Ukrainians initially succeeded in Kursk with the help of large use of EW equipment. They brought in pickup trucks with antennas to jam lots of frequencies.
Payload on fiber optics drones is also limited due to the weight of the cable spool. Often only 500g are left for explosives, which is not a lot. Thus, these are not wonder weapons
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Payload on fiber optics drones is also limited due to the weight of the cable spool. Often only 500g are left for explosives, which is not a lot. Thus, these are not wonder weapons
Fiber optics cables also physically clutters up the area and gets in the way. If you hit a cable on a motorcycle at full speed, you get hurt. Bikes are used often now on the Russian side for assault because of importance of speed of assault (Ed: & lack of availability of armor)
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Fiber optics cables also physically clutters up the area and gets in the way. If you hit a cable on a motorcycle at full speed, you get hurt. Bikes are used often now on the Russian side for assault because of importance of speed of assault (Ed: & lack of availability of armor)
The fiber optics sleeper would sit in wait hidden and silent - virtually invisible and then spring into action at the right moment and launch at its target just 15m away. The truck drivers don’t even have time to react
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
The fiber optics sleeper would sit in wait hidden and silent - virtually invisible and then spring into action at the right moment and launch at its target just 15m away. The truck drivers don’t even have time to react
Sleeper drones were pioneered by the Ukrainians. Initially they pretended to crash to get the Russians to pick it up as a trophy to reverse engineer or to repurpose against Ukraine in whole or as spare parts. Soldiers would pick it up and it would explode
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Sleeper drones were pioneered by the Ukrainians. Initially they pretended to crash to get the Russians to pick it up as a trophy to reverse engineer or to repurpose against Ukraine in whole or as spare parts. Soldiers would pick it up and it would explode
Sleeper drones:
New capability has emerged of sleeper/ambush drones.
Drone flies to a target area. Lands by the roadside and waits for a target to come through.
New capability has emerged of sleeper/ambush drones.
Drone flies to a target area. Lands by the roadside and waits for a target to come through.
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Sleeper drones:
New capability has emerged of sleeper/ambush drones.
Drone flies to a target area. Lands by the roadside and waits for a target to come through.
New capability has emerged of sleeper/ambush drones.
Drone flies to a target area. Lands by the roadside and waits for a target to come through.
A new mine can be deployed within minutes and drop it into the recently created tire track. Even a weapon from the Roman times - cheap caltrops welded from rebar - are today dropped from drones to shred vehicle tires (mil truck tires are expensive). There is no counter to it.
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
A new mine can be deployed within minutes and drop it into the recently created tire track. Even a weapon from the Roman times - cheap caltrops welded from rebar - are today dropped from drones to shred vehicle tires (mil truck tires are expensive). There is no counter to it.
Scale of drone production:
Early in the war, fielding 1000 drones was a big deal. Now, a single assembly line can crank out 40,000 drones per week
Early in the war, fielding 1000 drones was a big deal. Now, a single assembly line can crank out 40,000 drones per week
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Scale of drone production:
Early in the war, fielding 1000 drones was a big deal. Now, a single assembly line can crank out 40,000 drones per week
Early in the war, fielding 1000 drones was a big deal. Now, a single assembly line can crank out 40,000 drones per week
Autonomy:
Major progress will also happen in autonomous target recognition and guidance. EW and shortage of skilled pilots are increasing the urgency of that evolution. Cheap AI at the edge of throwaway drone gear is still a big challenge but improving rapidly.
Major progress will also happen in autonomous target recognition and guidance. EW and shortage of skilled pilots are increasing the urgency of that evolution. Cheap AI at the edge of throwaway drone gear is still a big challenge but improving rapidly.
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Autonomy:
Major progress will also happen in autonomous target recognition and guidance. EW and shortage of skilled pilots are increasing the urgency of that evolution. Cheap AI at the edge of throwaway drone gear is still a big challenge but improving rapidly.
Major progress will also happen in autonomous target recognition and guidance. EW and shortage of skilled pilots are increasing the urgency of that evolution. Cheap AI at the edge of throwaway drone gear is still a big challenge but improving rapidly.
Future of drones:
The drones we are seeing now in this conflict on both sides are toys. Most of them run on Chinese flight controllers, motor drivers and toy-grade motors.
The drones we are seeing now in this conflict on both sides are toys. Most of them run on Chinese flight controllers, motor drivers and toy-grade motors.
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Future of drones:
The drones we are seeing now in this conflict on both sides are toys. Most of them run on Chinese flight controllers, motor drivers and toy-grade motors.
The drones we are seeing now in this conflict on both sides are toys. Most of them run on Chinese flight controllers, motor drivers and toy-grade motors.
Chinese exports:
Payments to Chinese sellers cannot be made with Russian bank cards anymore. A lot of military exports from China to Russia are officially restricted, including motors over 700W which are used in heavy drones
Payments to Chinese sellers cannot be made with Russian bank cards anymore. A lot of military exports from China to Russia are officially restricted, including motors over 700W which are used in heavy drones
May 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Chinese exports:
Payments to Chinese sellers cannot be made with Russian bank cards anymore. A lot of military exports from China to Russia are officially restricted, including motors over 700W which are used in heavy drones
Payments to Chinese sellers cannot be made with Russian bank cards anymore. A lot of military exports from China to Russia are officially restricted, including motors over 700W which are used in heavy drones