Joshua Tallis
@doctallis.bsky.social
Naval strategy and operations | GWU adjunct professor | St Andrews PhD
Reposted by Joshua Tallis
What does it mean when an attack is designed to be intercepted?
Chicken Versus Bumper Cars in Conflict Escalation
Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel last April — and the attack might have been designed to fail. The strike was a show of force built
warontherocks.com
November 24, 2025 at 10:15 PM
What does it mean when an attack is designed to be intercepted?
April 13, 2024. Iran launches hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel. Almost none hits. No one is killed. No critical infrastructure is destroyed. It was not a failure. As I argue, this is performative aggression, a game of bumper cars in a world long defined by games of chicken.
Iran is using familiar weapons in ways that create unfamiliar dilemmas for its rivals.
Chicken Versus Bumper Cars in Conflict Escalation
Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel last April — and the attack might have been designed to fail. The strike was a show of force built
warontherocks.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:12 PM
April 13, 2024. Iran launches hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel. Almost none hits. No one is killed. No critical infrastructure is destroyed. It was not a failure. As I argue, this is performative aggression, a game of bumper cars in a world long defined by games of chicken.
My latest in War on the Rocks
Iran is using familiar weapons in ways that create unfamiliar dilemmas for its rivals.
Chicken Versus Bumper Cars in Conflict Escalation
Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel last April — and the attack might have been designed to fail. The strike was a show of force built
warontherocks.com
November 24, 2025 at 4:13 PM
My latest in War on the Rocks
In 2019 I published a book on maritime insecurity, and in particular the challenge of aligning constabulary ways with military means. I argued at the time that, as maritime security threats rose in sophistication, it would be increasingly appealing to apply military resources to counter them.
The War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers, and Maritime Insecurity
The War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers, and Maritime Insecurity [Tallis, Joshua] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers, and Maritime Insecurity
www.amazon.com
September 7, 2025 at 12:05 PM
In 2019 I published a book on maritime insecurity, and in particular the challenge of aligning constabulary ways with military means. I argued at the time that, as maritime security threats rose in sophistication, it would be increasingly appealing to apply military resources to counter them.
This @warontherocks.bsky.social article offers a valuable, skeptical assessment of how transformative first-person view (FPV) drones have been on the Ukrainian battlefield—and is a great illustration of why it matters to collect data on the ground.
I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck - War on the Rocks
In 2024 and 2025, I served for six months as an international volunteer on a first-person view attack drone team in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. My team
warontherocks.com
July 1, 2025 at 2:20 AM
This @warontherocks.bsky.social article offers a valuable, skeptical assessment of how transformative first-person view (FPV) drones have been on the Ukrainian battlefield—and is a great illustration of why it matters to collect data on the ground.
As the kinetic nature of the Israeli strikes on Iran capture attention, there are also other impacts across the maritime space, particularly looking at energy and commercial SLOCs, worth tracking.
June 13, 2025 at 6:32 PM
As the kinetic nature of the Israeli strikes on Iran capture attention, there are also other impacts across the maritime space, particularly looking at energy and commercial SLOCs, worth tracking.
It was a pleasure to rejoin the Sailor Pulse podcast to talk about the good, bad, and indifferent in Navy’s “fight from the MOC” journey. This was an interesting and fun discussion that reflects the underlying aspirations and frustrations in how fleet commanders envision the role of MOCs in war.
Maritime Operations Centers were created with clear ambitions. But how often do those goals match reality?
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
June 9, 2025 at 3:44 PM
It was a pleasure to rejoin the Sailor Pulse podcast to talk about the good, bad, and indifferent in Navy’s “fight from the MOC” journey. This was an interesting and fun discussion that reflects the underlying aspirations and frustrations in how fleet commanders envision the role of MOCs in war.
Who could have seen that coming…
June 5, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Who could have seen that coming…
I’ve rarely seen a command execute thoughtful in-stride campaign analysis. This should be a five alarm concern for CCDRs, the inability to monitor and self-assess operational level progress turns a four star into chief tactician instead of the strategic leader they’ve been selected to be.
I worked at CENTCOM for 4 years in the 2000s trying to help them improve their assessment capabilities/approaches. If there’s one thing that command is NOT good at, it’s devising metrics that actually measure effectiveness
This new Times piece on the last month of American bombing of Yemen has some insane details.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/u...
May 13, 2025 at 11:37 AM
I’ve rarely seen a command execute thoughtful in-stride campaign analysis. This should be a five alarm concern for CCDRs, the inability to monitor and self-assess operational level progress turns a four star into chief tactician instead of the strategic leader they’ve been selected to be.
Rhymes with my own analysis from prior to Operation Rough Rider as well. warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
May 13, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Rhymes with my own analysis from prior to Operation Rough Rider as well. warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
Reposted by Joshua Tallis
CIMSEC IS RECRUITING!
CIMSEC is now welcoming applications for a volunteer Deputy Editor-in-Chief. This person will be responsible for helping lead CIMSEC’s editorial operation.
Please reach out to [email protected] to apply and for further details.
www.linkedin.com/posts/dmitry...
CIMSEC is now welcoming applications for a volunteer Deputy Editor-in-Chief. This person will be responsible for helping lead CIMSEC’s editorial operation.
Please reach out to [email protected] to apply and for further details.
www.linkedin.com/posts/dmitry...
Next month will mark 10 years of me being CIMSEC’s volunteer… | Dmitry Filipoff
Next month will mark 10 years of me being CIMSEC’s volunteer editor-in-chief. It has been an extremely fulfilling experience, and I am beyond grateful to all those I have gotten to work with along the...
www.linkedin.com
May 12, 2025 at 8:50 PM
CIMSEC IS RECRUITING!
CIMSEC is now welcoming applications for a volunteer Deputy Editor-in-Chief. This person will be responsible for helping lead CIMSEC’s editorial operation.
Please reach out to [email protected] to apply and for further details.
www.linkedin.com/posts/dmitry...
CIMSEC is now welcoming applications for a volunteer Deputy Editor-in-Chief. This person will be responsible for helping lead CIMSEC’s editorial operation.
Please reach out to [email protected] to apply and for further details.
www.linkedin.com/posts/dmitry...
It was a pleasure to join @thecipherbrief.bsky.social to talk about the importance of the Arctic to the U.S.. In addition to the usual talking points on national security, I tried to also emphasize economics, trade, and climate here, without which we cannot understand global interest in the region.
Why the Arctic Matters More Than Ever
YouTube video by The Cipher Brief
youtu.be
April 25, 2025 at 11:27 PM
It was a pleasure to join @thecipherbrief.bsky.social to talk about the importance of the Arctic to the U.S.. In addition to the usual talking points on national security, I tried to also emphasize economics, trade, and climate here, without which we cannot understand global interest in the region.
This piece on the EU contribution to Red Sea defense is a nice pairing to the War on the Rocks piece I wrote on Operation Prosperity Guardian earlier this month. The author takes the EU perspective well and notes (with fairness) that many analyses (including mine, I'd add) are quite US-focused.
April 25, 2025 at 6:09 PM
This piece on the EU contribution to Red Sea defense is a nice pairing to the War on the Rocks piece I wrote on Operation Prosperity Guardian earlier this month. The author takes the EU perspective well and notes (with fairness) that many analyses (including mine, I'd add) are quite US-focused.
From me in Defense News:
The recent maritime EO mandated 90-day assessment of how allies and trade policy relate to domestic shipbuilding. I have some ideas, and they start with weighing our strengths (innovation, software, tech) against our allies (huge preexisting maritime capital expenditures).
The recent maritime EO mandated 90-day assessment of how allies and trade policy relate to domestic shipbuilding. I have some ideas, and they start with weighing our strengths (innovation, software, tech) against our allies (huge preexisting maritime capital expenditures).
Opinion: As officials consider the wholesale resuscitation of U.S. shipbuilding, there is a nearer-term lever worth pulling, the author of this op-ed argues.
To bootstrap US maritime industrial base, link allies and innovators
Opinion: As officials consider the wholesale resuscitation of U.S. shipbuilding, there is a nearer-term lever worth pulling, the author of this op-ed argues.
www.defensenews.com
April 22, 2025 at 11:25 PM
From me in Defense News:
The recent maritime EO mandated 90-day assessment of how allies and trade policy relate to domestic shipbuilding. I have some ideas, and they start with weighing our strengths (innovation, software, tech) against our allies (huge preexisting maritime capital expenditures).
The recent maritime EO mandated 90-day assessment of how allies and trade policy relate to domestic shipbuilding. I have some ideas, and they start with weighing our strengths (innovation, software, tech) against our allies (huge preexisting maritime capital expenditures).
Trying real hard to reach that one guy in N97!
April 21, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Trying real hard to reach that one guy in N97!
Reposted by Joshua Tallis
Want to write for War on the Rocks?
Want to write for War on the Rocks?
Want to write for War on the Rocks?
warontherocks.com
April 8, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Want to write for War on the Rocks?
You can find my full article on the subject here: warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
April 15, 2025 at 3:06 PM
You can find my full article on the subject here: warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
Reposted by Joshua Tallis
Why has shipping in the Red Sea failed to return to pre-conflict levels? The answer has little to do with bombs and drones, but rather insurance, demand, and geopolitics. warontherocks.com/episode/the-...
April 15, 2025 at 5:00 AM
Why has shipping in the Red Sea failed to return to pre-conflict levels? The answer has little to do with bombs and drones, but rather insurance, demand, and geopolitics. warontherocks.com/episode/the-...
Reposted by Joshua Tallis
Thank you to Kerry Anderson and War on the Rocks for having me on The Insider podcast to discuss my recent article on the Red Sea. You can read that article here: warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
April 10, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Thank you to Kerry Anderson and War on the Rocks for having me on The Insider podcast to discuss my recent article on the Red Sea. You can read that article here: warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
I’ve always admired @csis.org’s innovation in visual storytelling. This article on Chinese shipbuilding is worth a read on the merits, but the thoughtful depiction makes it really stand out. Think tankers take note of interesting ideas on the intersection of analysis and research communication.
Murky Waters: Navigating the Risks of China’s Dual-Use Shipyards
China’s booming dual-use shipyards are accelerating its rapid naval buildup. This Hidden Reach investigation demystifies China’s murky shipbuilding ecosystem and explores the role foreign firms play i...
features.csis.org
April 7, 2025 at 9:36 PM
I’ve always admired @csis.org’s innovation in visual storytelling. This article on Chinese shipbuilding is worth a read on the merits, but the thoughtful depiction makes it really stand out. Think tankers take note of interesting ideas on the intersection of analysis and research communication.
Reposted by Joshua Tallis
#Houthis
Great piece by @doctallis.bsky.social
@warontherocks.bsky.social
warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
Great piece by @doctallis.bsky.social
@warontherocks.bsky.social
warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks
For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in
warontherocks.com
April 5, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Reposted by Joshua Tallis
The Red Sea crisis exposed a hard truth: strategy needs more than firepower.
The Red Sea crisis exposed a hard truth: strategy needs more than firepower.
The Red Sea crisis exposed a hard truth: strategy needs more than firepower.
warontherocks.com
April 3, 2025 at 5:59 AM
The Red Sea crisis exposed a hard truth: strategy needs more than firepower.
Reposted by Joshua Tallis
Tactical victories don’t always equal strategic success — just look at the Red Sea crisis. https://warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-the-biden-administration-won-tactically-but-failed-strategically-in-the-red-sea/
How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks
For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in
warontherocks.com
April 2, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Tactical victories don’t always equal strategic success — just look at the Red Sea crisis. https://warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-the-biden-administration-won-tactically-but-failed-strategically-in-the-red-sea/
Operation Prosperity Guardian was directionally right. Protecting maritime commerce is the kind of global public good that I would expect a superpower to provision in defense of the global trading system. The U.S. Navy provided nearly flawless tactical acumen in its execution.
How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks
For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in
warontherocks.com
April 2, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Operation Prosperity Guardian was directionally right. Protecting maritime commerce is the kind of global public good that I would expect a superpower to provision in defense of the global trading system. The U.S. Navy provided nearly flawless tactical acumen in its execution.