Erin Dumbacher
@dumbacher.bsky.social
International security & technology | Views are just mine and are often about defense tech, nuclear weapons, space policy, NATO, and good design.
Pinned
Erin Dumbacher
@dumbacher.bsky.social
· Aug 6
This issue is bigger than just "robots launch nukes." Every launch requires a thousand human decisions. Humans have saved us from nuclear disaster before.
What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?
What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?
![Petrov didn’t know the machine was wrong. He guessed based on his experiences. His radar told him that the US had launched five missiles, but he knew an American attack would be all or nothing. Five was a small number. The computers were also new and had worked faster than he’d seen them perform before. He made a judgement call.
“Can we expect humans to be able to do that routinely? Is that a fair expectation?” Lin says. “The point is that you have to go outside your training data. You must go outside your training data to be able to say: ‘No, my training data is telling me something wrong.’ By definition, [AI] can’t do that.”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3azj6pjvrivovesty32zkkpq/bafkreidz62xgqca2jcz4bgqspl3hx3ec2tj335gfmcfpuh3nq4wuot3mhq@jpeg)
This is absolutely right. But it's not inevitable that AI will impact nuclear weapons decisions; a hundred humans would need to hand decisions over to machines. We have the power and agency to stop it.
(1/3)
(1/3)
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
"The Pentagon’s acquisition system is not built to meet a moment where rapid technological change in areas like AI is shifting the capabilities the U.S. should acquire," write @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and @dumbacher.bsky.social for @cfr.org: www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
Time to Accept Risk in Defense Acquisitions
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth launched enterprising Pentagon reforms that prioritize speed in acquiring new military capabilities, but this ambitious proposal is at risk of running into the …
www.cfr.org
November 11, 2025 at 4:44 PM
"The Pentagon’s acquisition system is not built to meet a moment where rapid technological change in areas like AI is shifting the capabilities the U.S. should acquire," write @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and @dumbacher.bsky.social for @cfr.org: www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
If the president intends to signal strength [there are] solutions without the risk of radiological consequences, without offering an advantage to China’s expanding nuclear program, and without the risk of a new global race to test nuclear weapons.
www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
Will Trump’s Nuclear Testing Order Prompt a Global Race?
President Donald Trump’s announcement of resuming nuclear testing has stirred questions about the type, such as live testing of warheads, and whether the United States has entered a new era of nuclea…
www.cfr.org
October 30, 2025 at 9:22 PM
If the president intends to signal strength [there are] solutions without the risk of radiological consequences, without offering an advantage to China’s expanding nuclear program, and without the risk of a new global race to test nuclear weapons.
www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
I spoke to the @nytimes.com about Trump's unclear comments about nuclear testing www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/u...
Trump’s Test Threat Could Fuel Nuclear Tensions With China
www.nytimes.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:53 PM
I spoke to the @nytimes.com about Trump's unclear comments about nuclear testing www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/u...
Seems like a good time to re-read this. China and Russia would benefit from a restart of testing, more than the U.S.
Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Why America Stands to Lose If It Resumes Nuclear Testing
China and Russia would finally be able to catch up.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Seems like a good time to re-read this. China and Russia would benefit from a restart of testing, more than the U.S.
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
-Putin has been touting tests of Skyfall and Poseidon this week. (The tests were of nuke-powered, nuke delivery systems-not live warhead detonations)
-The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job.
-The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.
-The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job.
-The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.
October 30, 2025 at 2:07 AM
-Putin has been touting tests of Skyfall and Poseidon this week. (The tests were of nuke-powered, nuke delivery systems-not live warhead detonations)
-The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job.
-The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.
-The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job.
-The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
The B-1 bombers are returning after more than 14 hours in the air and an in-your-face mission to just outside Venezuelan airspace, along the coast, and back.
October 28, 2025 at 1:36 AM
The B-1 bombers are returning after more than 14 hours in the air and an in-your-face mission to just outside Venezuelan airspace, along the coast, and back.
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
“A House of Dynamite” is all too plausible. I’m a nuke expert - and it scared the heck out of me.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
www.theatlantic.com
October 16, 2025 at 2:49 PM
“A House of Dynamite” is all too plausible. I’m a nuke expert - and it scared the heck out of me.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
I was able to see an early screening of "A House of Dynamite." Americans need to see this movie and remember why nuclear attack is vastly more terrifying than any other threat to our existence.
www.netflix.com/title/81744537
www.netflix.com/title/81744537
Watch A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE | Netflix Official Site
When a single, unattributed missile is launched at the United States, a race begins to determine who is responsible and how to respond.
www.netflix.com
September 15, 2025 at 9:22 PM
I was able to see an early screening of "A House of Dynamite." Americans need to see this movie and remember why nuclear attack is vastly more terrifying than any other threat to our existence.
www.netflix.com/title/81744537
www.netflix.com/title/81744537
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
"...(Type 26) is sailing in company with two uncrewed escorts who are using AI to work in tandem with the warship. (...) It is my aim to have the first of our uncrewed escort ships sailing alongside our Royal Navy warships within the next two years.”"
September 10, 2025 at 3:36 PM
"...(Type 26) is sailing in company with two uncrewed escorts who are using AI to work in tandem with the warship. (...) It is my aim to have the first of our uncrewed escort ships sailing alongside our Royal Navy warships within the next two years.”"
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
“This was not an accident, obviously, given the number of drones,” said Hodges. “This was a rehearsal. To probe, and find out how good are our early warning systems, what are our reaction times.”
What is Vladimir Putin’s game plan against Nato’s eastern flank?
Drone incursions into Polish airspace lay bare how unprepared military alliance is against surprise Russian attacks
www.ft.com
September 10, 2025 at 1:19 PM
“This was not an accident, obviously, given the number of drones,” said Hodges. “This was a rehearsal. To probe, and find out how good are our early warning systems, what are our reaction times.”
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Polish and Dutch fighters, directed by Italian early warning aircraft, German air defenses on alert. Dutch PM: “I’m glad that Dutch F35 fighter jets were able to provide support. The Netherlands stands shoulder to shoulder with our NATO ally Poland.” Common defense working as designed.
September 10, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Polish and Dutch fighters, directed by Italian early warning aircraft, German air defenses on alert. Dutch PM: “I’m glad that Dutch F35 fighter jets were able to provide support. The Netherlands stands shoulder to shoulder with our NATO ally Poland.” Common defense working as designed.
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Worst incident in a while.
August 12, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Worst incident in a while.
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Pretty essential read blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2020/06/09/w...
What journalists should know about the atomic bombings
As we approach the 75th anniversary of the atomic bombings, we're going to see a lot of journalistic takes on them — many of them totally wrong.
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
August 6, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Pretty essential read blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2020/06/09/w...
This is absolutely right. But it's not inevitable that AI will impact nuclear weapons decisions; a hundred humans would need to hand decisions over to machines. We have the power and agency to stop it.
(1/3)
(1/3)
This issue is bigger than just "robots launch nukes." Every launch requires a thousand human decisions. Humans have saved us from nuclear disaster before.
What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?
What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?
August 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM
This is absolutely right. But it's not inevitable that AI will impact nuclear weapons decisions; a hundred humans would need to hand decisions over to machines. We have the power and agency to stop it.
(1/3)
(1/3)
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
This issue is bigger than just "robots launch nukes." Every launch requires a thousand human decisions. Humans have saved us from nuclear disaster before.
What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?
What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?
August 6, 2025 at 1:52 PM
This issue is bigger than just "robots launch nukes." Every launch requires a thousand human decisions. Humans have saved us from nuclear disaster before.
What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?
What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Trump: “The USA is fully prepared for a nuclear war with Russia.”
August 1, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Trump: “The USA is fully prepared for a nuclear war with Russia.”
July 31, 2025 at 10:31 PM
You might hear #tsunami warning in the Pacific and think about Japanese nuclear power plants and their power backups. Yes, although lessons were learned from Fukushima.
Also Russia's Pacific nuclear submarines are based on the Kamchatka peninsula.
Thread (1/4)
www.newsweek.com/russian-news...
Also Russia's Pacific nuclear submarines are based on the Kamchatka peninsula.
Thread (1/4)
www.newsweek.com/russian-news...
Russian nuclear submarines cross under Arctic ice near US coast
Russia transferred two nuclear-powered submarines from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet.
www.newsweek.com
July 30, 2025 at 2:49 AM
You might hear #tsunami warning in the Pacific and think about Japanese nuclear power plants and their power backups. Yes, although lessons were learned from Fukushima.
Also Russia's Pacific nuclear submarines are based on the Kamchatka peninsula.
Thread (1/4)
www.newsweek.com/russian-news...
Also Russia's Pacific nuclear submarines are based on the Kamchatka peninsula.
Thread (1/4)
www.newsweek.com/russian-news...
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
So the total cost of boats 1-3 increased by 12.4% from FY25 to FY26. And that is unlikely to be the end of the cost growth. Which begs a significant question: How much headroom is left before a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach and can the program stay under it? (4/4)
July 27, 2025 at 3:43 AM
So the total cost of boats 1-3 increased by 12.4% from FY25 to FY26. And that is unlikely to be the end of the cost growth. Which begs a significant question: How much headroom is left before a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach and can the program stay under it? (4/4)
Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
🚀🇺🇸 Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill" adds $150B in defense $. It could accelerate emerging tech adoption to stay ahead of China + bolster nuclear deterrence...or not. Learn more in latest from me, @dumbacher.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social for @cfr.org www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
Will Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful’ Defense Spending Last?
Trump’s signature legislation will push defense spending past $1 trillion, with new funding for innovation and other capabilities. But those investments are at risk of becoming one-off acquisitions w…
www.cfr.org
July 9, 2025 at 9:43 PM
🚀🇺🇸 Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill" adds $150B in defense $. It could accelerate emerging tech adoption to stay ahead of China + bolster nuclear deterrence...or not. Learn more in latest from me, @dumbacher.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social for @cfr.org www.cfr.org/expert-brief...