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Emanuel Ornelas

@emanuelornelas.bsky.social

110 followers 120 following 6 posts

Professor of Economics @ Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV Research on International Trade; Torcedor do/Fan of CAM; 🇧🇷🇬🇧 https://sites.google.com/site/emanuelornelaseo/

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Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · Aug 18

Service Offshoring and Export Experience url: academic.oup.com/ej/article-a...

Experienced exporters are more likely to source services at destination. Once offshoring, they exhibit reduced volatility and are less likely to exit foreign markets.
@gberlingieri.bsky.social

Service Offshoring and Export Experience

Abstract. Service inputs significantly influence export costs and firm internationalisation. A new dataset on French firms’ participation in global value c

academic.oup.com

Reposted by Emanuel Ornelas

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · Jul 28

J Hinz, @schularick.bsky.social, @ckhead.bsky.social, I Mejean, & @emanuelornelas.bsky.social‬ argue the only effective response to Trump's #tariffs is a united one. Unified retaliation by the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, & South Korea would be impossible to ignore.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Chart of short-run changes in real production under different tariff scenarios for Germany, France, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the US and the EU.

The US administration’s latest threat to impose sweeping new tariffs on many of its closest allies signals a renewed embrace of aggressive unilateralism and misunderstood economics. This column argues that the only effective response is a coordinated one. Unified retaliation by a coalition of like-minded countries made up of the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea – which together account for more than 50% of all US goods exports – would be impossible for Washington to ignore and would send a powerful message that the rules-based global trading system is worth defending.

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Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · Jul 24

Let’s not lose sight of the big picture. Appeasement won’t work. Instead of rushing to minimize short-term costs, we should stick to WTO principles and pursue a coordinated, proportional, multi-country retaliatory response against rule-breakers

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · Jul 24

Simulations with the KITE Model show a joint response would raise US costs by 34% vs. no retaliation—reaching ~60% of the effect of a global reaction. In contrast, going it alone is less effective and riskier, esp. for integrated economies like 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽 👇 @emanuelornelas.bsky.social @ckhead.bsky.social

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · Jul 24

The US is playing countries off against each other. A coalition of the 🇪🇺,🇨🇦,🇲🇽,🇧🇷 & 🇰🇷 could put real pressure on Washington with a joint response. They would have strong leverage against tariffs. Read more in the new KPB 👉 ifw-kiel.de/publications...
@julianhi.nz @schularick.bsky.social

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Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · Jun 13

A picture is (sometimes) worth just as the paper:

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · Jun 11

The 2018-19 US-China #trade war failed to generate #employment gains in either the #US or #China. However, it did boost employment in #Brazil, showing that the clash created regional winners.
Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Ogeda, @emanuelornelas.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graph of the US-China trade war and Brazilian local labour markets: Formal employment.

In June 2016, Donald Trump justified the protectionist policies during his first administration as “the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country”. This column shows that while the trade war with China failed to create jobs at home, it did boost employment in Brazil. Regions in the country specialised in industries targeted by China’s trade policy towards the US experiencing a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills between 2016 and 2021. With tensions between major economies rising, policymakers in third countries should be aware not only of the risks of global fragmentation, but also of the opportunities it can create.

Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · Jun 10

An example of the intricate consequences of a trade war between large countries (and this was the “mild” trade war of 2018-2020…)

Centre for Economic Performance @cep-lse.bsky.social · Jun 9

The 2018-2019 US-China trade war failed to create jobs at home, but did boost employment in Brazil.
Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Ogeda and @emanuelornelas.bsky.social‬

cepr.org/voxeu/colum...

The US-China trade war created jobs (elsewhere)

In June 2016, Donald Trump justified the protectionist policies during his first administration as “the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country”. This column shows that while the trade war with China failed to create jobs at home, it did boost employment in Brazil. Regions in the country specialised in industries targeted by China’s trade policy towards the US experiencing a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills between 2016 and 2021. With tensions between major economies rising, policymakers in third countries should be aware not only of the risks of global fragmentation, but also of the opportunities it can create.

cepr.org

Reposted by Emanuel Ornelas

The Review of Economic Studies (REStud) @reveconstudies.bsky.social · May 17

"This study estimates the carbon-efficient forest cover in the Brazilian Amazon. A $10/ton carbon tax could preserve 95% of the efficient carbon stock, avoiding 42B tons of CO2 & yielding $1.6T in welfare gains."

From @araujocrrafael.bsky.social , @franciscocosta.bsky.social & Sant'Anna

#EconSky 👇

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Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · May 7

We find that Brazilian regions specialized in industries targeted by China’s retaliatory tariffs toward the US did experience a relative increase in formal employment & wage bills b/w 2016 and 2021. But there was no effect on the regions more exposed to US tariffs on China.

Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · May 7

Trump justifies his protectionist policies as “the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country.” We show that the first US–China trade war indeed created jobs — in Brazil.

CESifo @cesifo.org · May 6

🚨Working Paper Alert!
“The US-China Trade War Creates Jobs (Elsewhere)”
✒️ Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Molina Ogeda & Emanuel Ornelas

💼 Can a Trade War create new Jobs?
Find out: www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...

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