Emil Kastehelmi
@emilkastehelmi.bsky.social
Military analyst, military history expert. Co-founder of Black Bird Group. Focusing on Ukraine, Russia and northern Europe.
Contact:
+358 407388158
[email protected]
Contact:
+358 407388158
[email protected]
Ukraine may be repeating a costly mistake in Pokrovsk.
It’s a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk – a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/
It’s a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk – a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/
November 4, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Ukraine may be repeating a costly mistake in Pokrovsk.
It’s a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk – a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/
It’s a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk – a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/
In Dyagilevo:
1 x Tu-22M3 damaged
1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition after the strike, likely non-operational
1 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged
In Ivanovo:
2 x A-50 unknown condition, planes non-operational, engines missing
6/
1 x Tu-22M3 damaged
1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition after the strike, likely non-operational
1 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged
In Ivanovo:
2 x A-50 unknown condition, planes non-operational, engines missing
6/
June 5, 2025 at 5:23 PM
In Dyagilevo:
1 x Tu-22M3 damaged
1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition after the strike, likely non-operational
1 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged
In Ivanovo:
2 x A-50 unknown condition, planes non-operational, engines missing
6/
1 x Tu-22M3 damaged
1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition after the strike, likely non-operational
1 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged
In Ivanovo:
2 x A-50 unknown condition, planes non-operational, engines missing
6/
In Belaya:
3 x Tu-95MS destroyed
4 x Tu-22M3 destroyed
1 x Tu-22M3 damaged
1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition
1 x IL-78 undamaged (aerial refueling tanker)
It's uncertain if the damaged Tu-22M3 can be repaired - it seems the hull was damaged. 5/
3 x Tu-95MS destroyed
4 x Tu-22M3 destroyed
1 x Tu-22M3 damaged
1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition
1 x IL-78 undamaged (aerial refueling tanker)
It's uncertain if the damaged Tu-22M3 can be repaired - it seems the hull was damaged. 5/
June 5, 2025 at 5:23 PM
In Belaya:
3 x Tu-95MS destroyed
4 x Tu-22M3 destroyed
1 x Tu-22M3 damaged
1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition
1 x IL-78 undamaged (aerial refueling tanker)
It's uncertain if the damaged Tu-22M3 can be repaired - it seems the hull was damaged. 5/
3 x Tu-95MS destroyed
4 x Tu-22M3 destroyed
1 x Tu-22M3 damaged
1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition
1 x IL-78 undamaged (aerial refueling tanker)
It's uncertain if the damaged Tu-22M3 can be repaired - it seems the hull was damaged. 5/
Next, we’ll examine the damage in each individual air base. In Olenya:
4 x Tu-95MS destroyed
1 x An-12BK destroyed
2 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged
One of the Tu-22M3 was very likely in a non-operational state, a flap was missing from its left wing. 4/
4 x Tu-95MS destroyed
1 x An-12BK destroyed
2 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged
One of the Tu-22M3 was very likely in a non-operational state, a flap was missing from its left wing. 4/
June 5, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Next, we’ll examine the damage in each individual air base. In Olenya:
4 x Tu-95MS destroyed
1 x An-12BK destroyed
2 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged
One of the Tu-22M3 was very likely in a non-operational state, a flap was missing from its left wing. 4/
4 x Tu-95MS destroyed
1 x An-12BK destroyed
2 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged
One of the Tu-22M3 was very likely in a non-operational state, a flap was missing from its left wing. 4/
From videos and satellite images, 23 distinct aircraft were identified in total as potentially targeted. The condition of 4 aircraft seen in videos remains unclear. Available evidence doesn’t allow for assessing potential damage or whether nearby drones even detonated. 2/
June 5, 2025 at 5:23 PM
From videos and satellite images, 23 distinct aircraft were identified in total as potentially targeted. The condition of 4 aircraft seen in videos remains unclear. Available evidence doesn’t allow for assessing potential damage or whether nearby drones even detonated. 2/
On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft.
Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/
Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/
June 5, 2025 at 5:23 PM
On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft.
Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/
Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/
The Russian MoD has now also confirmed the Ukrainian strikes.
However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/
However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/
June 1, 2025 at 4:23 PM
The Russian MoD has now also confirmed the Ukrainian strikes.
However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/
However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/
At least currently it seems likely this was done with FPV drones flown by SBU-led sabotage groups operating inside Russia, not by "traditional" long-range drones flying all the way from Ukraine. This would also explain why the defensive measures failed so immensely. 4/4
June 1, 2025 at 12:18 PM
At least currently it seems likely this was done with FPV drones flown by SBU-led sabotage groups operating inside Russia, not by "traditional" long-range drones flying all the way from Ukraine. This would also explain why the defensive measures failed so immensely. 4/4
These are major and expensive losses for Russia that can't be replaced quickly.
Additionally, the air base in Belaya, roughly 4300 km from Ukraine, has been hit. Also Dyagilevo and Ivanovo air bases are burning. This is a very, very successful day for Ukraine. 3/
Additionally, the air base in Belaya, roughly 4300 km from Ukraine, has been hit. Also Dyagilevo and Ivanovo air bases are burning. This is a very, very successful day for Ukraine. 3/
June 1, 2025 at 12:18 PM
These are major and expensive losses for Russia that can't be replaced quickly.
Additionally, the air base in Belaya, roughly 4300 km from Ukraine, has been hit. Also Dyagilevo and Ivanovo air bases are burning. This is a very, very successful day for Ukraine. 3/
Additionally, the air base in Belaya, roughly 4300 km from Ukraine, has been hit. Also Dyagilevo and Ivanovo air bases are burning. This is a very, very successful day for Ukraine. 3/
Russia had transferred the valuable planes to Olenya to avoid the exact scenario we're seeing on the videos and photos coming from the area. Bombers operating from the field have repeatedly struck Ukraine with cruise missiles. 2/
June 1, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Russia had transferred the valuable planes to Olenya to avoid the exact scenario we're seeing on the videos and photos coming from the area. Bombers operating from the field have repeatedly struck Ukraine with cruise missiles. 2/
Ukraine has struck multiple strategic bombers in Olenya, Murmansk oblast, 1800 km from Ukraine. This is one of the most successful drone strikes against against Russian air bases in the entire war. The extent of the damage is yet unclear, but I can already say it's significant. 1/
June 1, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Ukraine has struck multiple strategic bombers in Olenya, Murmansk oblast, 1800 km from Ukraine. This is one of the most successful drone strikes against against Russian air bases in the entire war. The extent of the damage is yet unclear, but I can already say it's significant. 1/
The most endangered area is Kostiantynivka. The Russians are attacking from three directions – Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and also from the new salient west of the city. The attacks in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk have not made much progress in recent months. 5/
May 28, 2025 at 1:23 PM
The most endangered area is Kostiantynivka. The Russians are attacking from three directions – Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and also from the new salient west of the city. The attacks in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk have not made much progress in recent months. 5/
In the latest development, Ukrainians retreated from Stara Mykolaivka. This enables the Russians to continue north towards Kostiantynivka, while also undermining the long-standing defences in Shcherbynivka. However, the fight here seemingly brought Ukrainians some time. 4/
May 28, 2025 at 1:23 PM
In the latest development, Ukrainians retreated from Stara Mykolaivka. This enables the Russians to continue north towards Kostiantynivka, while also undermining the long-standing defences in Shcherbynivka. However, the fight here seemingly brought Ukrainians some time. 4/
Russia's probable operational objectives for the coming months in the area include:
Formation of an encirclement threat around Kostiantynivka
Formation of an encirclement threat around Pokrovsk
Disruption of Ukrainian supply and command elements in the cities in the AO 3/
Formation of an encirclement threat around Kostiantynivka
Formation of an encirclement threat around Pokrovsk
Disruption of Ukrainian supply and command elements in the cities in the AO 3/
May 28, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Russia's probable operational objectives for the coming months in the area include:
Formation of an encirclement threat around Kostiantynivka
Formation of an encirclement threat around Pokrovsk
Disruption of Ukrainian supply and command elements in the cities in the AO 3/
Formation of an encirclement threat around Kostiantynivka
Formation of an encirclement threat around Pokrovsk
Disruption of Ukrainian supply and command elements in the cities in the AO 3/
During April and May, the Russians formed a dangerous salient against the Ukrainian defenses between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk.
The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and the situation can develop into a serious issue in the near future. 1/
The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and the situation can develop into a serious issue in the near future. 1/
May 28, 2025 at 1:23 PM
During April and May, the Russians formed a dangerous salient against the Ukrainian defenses between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk.
The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and the situation can develop into a serious issue in the near future. 1/
The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and the situation can develop into a serious issue in the near future. 1/
Even though the Russians have moved some equipment from the Petrozavodsk storage site during the full-scale invasion, it’s far from empty.
Similar halls have also been constructed a bit further north, in Alakurtti, home for the 80th Separate Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade. 9/
Similar halls have also been constructed a bit further north, in Alakurtti, home for the 80th Separate Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade. 9/
May 2, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Even though the Russians have moved some equipment from the Petrozavodsk storage site during the full-scale invasion, it’s far from empty.
Similar halls have also been constructed a bit further north, in Alakurtti, home for the 80th Separate Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade. 9/
Similar halls have also been constructed a bit further north, in Alakurtti, home for the 80th Separate Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade. 9/
In the future, the 44th Army Corps or elements of it will possibly be stationed in the Petrozavodsk region. However, currently massive construction projects don’t seem to be underway, only the storage site near Petrozavodsk has seen some improvement. 7/
May 2, 2025 at 5:30 PM
In the future, the 44th Army Corps or elements of it will possibly be stationed in the Petrozavodsk region. However, currently massive construction projects don’t seem to be underway, only the storage site near Petrozavodsk has seen some improvement. 7/
There are already signs of what is to come. Firstly, in Kamenka, there has been a need for more accommodation space. In the spring of 2024, the Russians erected over 140 tents in the training grounds and constructed an earth wall around them. The tents are still there. 5/
May 2, 2025 at 5:30 PM
There are already signs of what is to come. Firstly, in Kamenka, there has been a need for more accommodation space. In the spring of 2024, the Russians erected over 140 tents in the training grounds and constructed an earth wall around them. The tents are still there. 5/
At the same time, Russia is expanding its existing brigades into divisions and bringing entirely new troops into Finland's neighboring regions. For example, the 138th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade from Kamenka was recently transformed into the 69th Motor Rifle Division. 3/
May 2, 2025 at 5:30 PM
At the same time, Russia is expanding its existing brigades into divisions and bringing entirely new troops into Finland's neighboring regions. For example, the 138th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade from Kamenka was recently transformed into the 69th Motor Rifle Division. 3/
Firstly, a brief overview of the organizational level. In 2024, Russia reestablished the Leningrad Military District (LMD) as a part of a larger reform of the military districts. The LMD covers the north-western Russia, including Baltic and arctic directions. 2/
May 2, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Firstly, a brief overview of the organizational level. In 2024, Russia reestablished the Leningrad Military District (LMD) as a part of a larger reform of the military districts. The LMD covers the north-western Russia, including Baltic and arctic directions. 2/
Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/
May 2, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/
"As long as Russia has military personnel, Finland will need anti-personnel mines."
Today it was announced that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which banned anti-personnel mines.
Finland will also increase defence spending to 3% of its GDP by 2029.
Today it was announced that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which banned anti-personnel mines.
Finland will also increase defence spending to 3% of its GDP by 2029.
April 1, 2025 at 1:49 PM
"As long as Russia has military personnel, Finland will need anti-personnel mines."
Today it was announced that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which banned anti-personnel mines.
Finland will also increase defence spending to 3% of its GDP by 2029.
Today it was announced that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which banned anti-personnel mines.
Finland will also increase defence spending to 3% of its GDP by 2029.
Ukrainians haven’t been inactive either. They’ve been putting pressure on the Belgorod border area for over a week now, advancing into Demidovka and Popovka. The operation penetrated the first Russian defences and advanced 3-4 km deep, forming a small bulge on the border. 6/
March 29, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Ukrainians haven’t been inactive either. They’ve been putting pressure on the Belgorod border area for over a week now, advancing into Demidovka and Popovka. The operation penetrated the first Russian defences and advanced 3-4 km deep, forming a small bulge on the border. 6/
Meanwhile, Russia started attacking across the border into Sumy oblast, even though fighting in Kursk is still ongoing. 2-3 villages are now under Russian control, at least partially. I would still refrain from calling this the opening of a new front. 4/
March 29, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Meanwhile, Russia started attacking across the border into Sumy oblast, even though fighting in Kursk is still ongoing. 2-3 villages are now under Russian control, at least partially. I would still refrain from calling this the opening of a new front. 4/
In the Russian-Ukrainian border region, both parties have continued offensive operations since the Ukrainian defense in Kursk collapsed.
While Russia is pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk and its own soldiers into Ukrainian territory in Sumy, Ukraine has again attacked Belgorod. 1/
While Russia is pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk and its own soldiers into Ukrainian territory in Sumy, Ukraine has again attacked Belgorod. 1/
March 29, 2025 at 2:48 PM
In the Russian-Ukrainian border region, both parties have continued offensive operations since the Ukrainian defense in Kursk collapsed.
While Russia is pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk and its own soldiers into Ukrainian territory in Sumy, Ukraine has again attacked Belgorod. 1/
While Russia is pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk and its own soldiers into Ukrainian territory in Sumy, Ukraine has again attacked Belgorod. 1/