Chris Turnbull
@enemyinastate.bsky.social
Journalist @Enemy In A State. "Gutter Journo" who, unfortunately, has to report from the gutter, as that's where 99.9% of politicians dwell patreon.com/c/EnemyInAState265
'I have focused on one NPI for airborne transmission: masks/respirators.Another NPI is improving indoor air quality,as Morawska et al.[31] have recently called for. My model suggests that,for example, doubling the rate of turnover of air should reduce transmission by approximately 1 − 1/√2 ∼ 30%.'
![I have focused on one NPI for airborne transmission: masks/respirators. Another NPI is improving indoor air quality, as Morawska et al. [31] have recently called for. My model suggests that, for example, doubling the rate of turnover of air should reduce transmission by approximately 1 − 1/√2 ∼ 30%. This estimate is highly approximate but as obtaining population-level data on the effect of NPIs is so hard to do, this estimate may still be useful. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreiglpkfaxvnek3jdvjwsz2drvtqgloh6ekqtmee3vtg7xtbojog6k4@jpeg)
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
'I have focused on one NPI for airborne transmission: masks/respirators.Another NPI is improving indoor air quality,as Morawska et al.[31] have recently called for. My model suggests that,for example, doubling the rate of turnover of air should reduce transmission by approximately 1 − 1/√2 ∼ 30%.'
As the author themselves who is a computational physicist says in their conclusion:
'I have predicted that for a population like that of the UK, wearing FFP2/N95-type masks should reduce the effective reproduction number R by a factor of nine'
'I have predicted that for a population like that of the UK, wearing FFP2/N95-type masks should reduce the effective reproduction number R by a factor of nine'
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
As the author themselves who is a computational physicist says in their conclusion:
'I have predicted that for a population like that of the UK, wearing FFP2/N95-type masks should reduce the effective reproduction number R by a factor of nine'
'I have predicted that for a population like that of the UK, wearing FFP2/N95-type masks should reduce the effective reproduction number R by a factor of nine'
..Also shown are predictions for PT when one susceptible person wears a surgical mask (green dashed), one person wears an FFP2/N95 (orange dashed), when the whole population wears surgical masks (solid green), and when the population wears FFP2/N95s (solid orange)'
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
..Also shown are predictions for PT when one susceptible person wears a surgical mask (green dashed), one person wears an FFP2/N95 (orange dashed), when the whole population wears surgical masks (solid green), and when the population wears FFP2/N95s (solid orange)'
Chart from the study showing the effects of various interventions of reducing spread of the virus:
'Plot of the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of the length of contact time [23]. The blue points are data from the work of Ferretti et al...
'Plot of the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of the length of contact time [23]. The blue points are data from the work of Ferretti et al...
December 6, 2024 at 11:48 PM
Chart from the study showing the effects of various interventions of reducing spread of the virus:
'Plot of the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of the length of contact time [23]. The blue points are data from the work of Ferretti et al...
'Plot of the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of the length of contact time [23]. The blue points are data from the work of Ferretti et al...
Or to be more precise: Study shows that N95 masks reduce Covid transmission by at least 9x.
Anyway: from the study:
'Pair of schematics showing two possible contacts between an infected person (I, left) and a susceptible person (S, right)...
Anyway: from the study:
'Pair of schematics showing two possible contacts between an infected person (I, left) and a susceptible person (S, right)...
December 6, 2024 at 11:48 PM
Or to be more precise: Study shows that N95 masks reduce Covid transmission by at least 9x.
Anyway: from the study:
'Pair of schematics showing two possible contacts between an infected person (I, left) and a susceptible person (S, right)...
Anyway: from the study:
'Pair of schematics showing two possible contacts between an infected person (I, left) and a susceptible person (S, right)...
The present study used data from the UK's Covid App to find out that using FFP2/N95 masks reduces transmission of the virus by nearly 10x:
December 6, 2024 at 11:46 PM
The present study used data from the UK's Covid App to find out that using FFP2/N95 masks reduces transmission of the virus by nearly 10x:
(ANOTHER) New Study Shows That Using N95/FFP2 Masks Reduce Covid Transmission By A Whopping 9X.
Masks work.
Masks work.
December 6, 2024 at 11:45 PM
(ANOTHER) New Study Shows That Using N95/FFP2 Masks Reduce Covid Transmission By A Whopping 9X.
Masks work.
Masks work.
I have to say that given the symptoms: this was also my first thoughts on this outbreak and until such time as more information is given - it does seem the most likely given the symptom list.
December 4, 2024 at 5:40 PM
I have to say that given the symptoms: this was also my first thoughts on this outbreak and until such time as more information is given - it does seem the most likely given the symptom list.
This virus is very odd: they list anemia as one of the main symptoms: but there's no explanation as to why: is it through blood loss?
December 4, 2024 at 5:38 PM
This virus is very odd: they list anemia as one of the main symptoms: but there's no explanation as to why: is it through blood loss?
Might be a good time to remind everyone that Eric was the first western scientist to warn the world about the serious thread posed by Covid - loudly and publicly...
December 4, 2024 at 5:36 PM
Might be a good time to remind everyone that Eric was the first western scientist to warn the world about the serious thread posed by Covid - loudly and publicly...
Lots of outstanding and star athletes here - further supporting the hypothesis of the study:
'A talented basketball player...all-time leading scorer...member of the 2018 USSSA National Championship team'
'A talented basketball player...all-time leading scorer...member of the 2018 USSSA National Championship team'
![19
(male)
USA
Death (COVID-19; Positive
"incredibly tired
for two weeks ... it
was secretly
attacking his body
in a way they have
never seen before")
WFRB [38], New
York Times [39]
19
(male)
Canada Death (COVID-19) Positive CBC [40]
USA
(male)
Recovered (COVID- Positive, GoFundMe [41],
19 (mild symptoms Negative The Fresno Bee
for about a week,
then chills, body
aches, high fever,
open-heart
surgery, existing
heart
malformation
found and valves
on verge of failure)
and
Positive
[42]
"a talented
basketball
player" "all-
time leading
scorer"
"member of the
2018 USSSA
National
Championship
team"
"Star athlete"
"demonstrated
academic and
athletic
perseverance"
"Great student. 19
Great athlete"
“played
football,
baseball and
track" "named
the
homecoming
king his senior
year"](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreieb2fsep4nezpzeytrhctu5xu4e5bovfcdvf7pyuatkqd3tfsve3y@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:56 PM
Lots of outstanding and star athletes here - further supporting the hypothesis of the study:
'A talented basketball player...all-time leading scorer...member of the 2018 USSSA National Championship team'
'A talented basketball player...all-time leading scorer...member of the 2018 USSSA National Championship team'
'Exceptional...National Honors Society inductee..had so much going on for her…future was bright' died at just 17 from Covid:
'Death (COVID-19; died two weeks after testing positive; found unresponsive in home)'
'Death (COVID-19; died two weeks after testing positive; found unresponsive in home)'
![exceptional"
"National
Honors Society
inductee" "had
so much going
on for her, ...
future was
bright"
"extremely
bright"
"schedule was
vigorous - top
academic
courses,
including
organic
chemistry" "She
picked up
things so fast"
17
(female)
USA
cadiomegaly)
Death (COVID-19;
died two weeks
after testing
positive; found
unresponsive in
home)
Positive
BuzzFeed [26],
NBCDFW [27]
18
(female)
USA
Death (COVID-19)
Not
reported Voice [28]
The Citizens'](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreia4iqezdfl2dshzyhgr4o7defdacuhbq4u5r5sg6u22y2plddwumm@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:56 PM
'Exceptional...National Honors Society inductee..had so much going on for her…future was bright' died at just 17 from Covid:
'Death (COVID-19; died two weeks after testing positive; found unresponsive in home)'
'Death (COVID-19; died two weeks after testing positive; found unresponsive in home)'
'A curious student...what you want every student to be..lover of books… always sneaking in extra reading time during classes, even during math...leader'
A 9-year-old girl who died from Covid after it caused her to be paralyzed and have brain inflammation.
A 9-year-old girl who died from Covid after it caused her to be paralyzed and have brain inflammation.
!["intelligent"
“bright"
8
(female)
USA
"A smart child" 9
“phenomenal"
USA
(female)
CNN [5],
Obituary [6]]
"a curious
student" “what
you want every
student to be"
"lover of
books ... always
sneaking in
extra reading
time during
classes, even
during math"
"leader"
9
USA
(female)
Death (COVID-19;
paralysis in her
arms and legs;
brain
inflammation)
Positive
(post-
mortem)
Positive WLWT [7], The
Highland
County Press
[8], Spectrum
News 1 [9]
Death (COVID-19; Positive
anosmial, died
4days after testing
positive)
Death (COVID-19)
News Observer
[4]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreidl244xnd26drbkxzoifsbrxpvv5jym4clllsgc73i74vpyxg4j6a@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:56 PM
'A curious student...what you want every student to be..lover of books… always sneaking in extra reading time during classes, even during math...leader'
A 9-year-old girl who died from Covid after it caused her to be paralyzed and have brain inflammation.
A 9-year-old girl who died from Covid after it caused her to be paralyzed and have brain inflammation.
...who died after developing a rare form of Covid meningitis and brain swelling after less than 2 weeks after being on a ventilator...
![Table 1. News and social media reports of severe paediatric COVID-19
outcomes from March 15 to September 30 2020.
Evidence of a Age(sex) Country Outcome
high IQ
"a bright little
girl"
3
(female)
USA
Death (COVID-19)
Information
source(s)
New York Daily
News [1]
“very bright”
"smart little
cookie"
5
USA
(female)
"a very
intelligent and
mature girl for
her age"
"learning
English at
lightning
speed"
“intelligent”
“bright"
6
(female)
USA
COVID-
19 test
Positive
(post-
mortem)
Death (COVID-19; Positive ABC News [2]
developed rare
form of meningitis
and brain
swelling; died
<2weeks after on
ventilator)
Death (COVID-19) Positive Tampa Bay
Times [3]
8
USA
(female)
Death (COVID-19; Positive News Observer
anosmial, died
4days after testing
positive)
[4]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreifwdudrst3bkxveif2yt7nt7zurswi7ccusxpkwj5faaex6ujfop4@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:52 PM
...who died after developing a rare form of Covid meningitis and brain swelling after less than 2 weeks after being on a ventilator...
Public Health Agency Forced TO ADMIT That Covid Causes Cardiac Arrests & Sudden Deaths In Young People.
December 3, 2024 at 5:49 PM
Public Health Agency Forced TO ADMIT That Covid Causes Cardiac Arrests & Sudden Deaths In Young People.
The study also elaborates on the link between severe/long Covid and high athletic ability, noting that:
'Between June and August 2020, a group of doctors in the USA performed cardiac magnetic resonance imaging on 26 competitive college athletes recovering from COVID-19 disease...
'Between June and August 2020, a group of doctors in the USA performed cardiac magnetic resonance imaging on 26 competitive college athletes recovering from COVID-19 disease...
![Evidence of myocarditis with high athletic
intelligence
In several of the paediatric cases of severe COVID-19 outcomes
that we present in Table 1, the children were described as
exceptionally talented athletes who experienced severe cardiac
complications after SARS-CoV-2 infection. In the context of our
hypothesis, and the 'hyper brain, hyper body' paradigm, we treat
these cases as reflecting a high physical IQ [80] or high
psychomotor [18], bodily-kinesthetic [ 19] intelligence; they are
"exceptionally gifted" athletes [22] with "high performance
brains, as well as bodies" [81]. Between June and August 2020, a
group of doctors in the USA performed cardiac magnetic
resonance imaging on 26 competitive college athletes
recovering from COVID-19 disease, and reported that 15% had
"findings suggestive of myocarditis" [82]. None of the athletes
tested required hospitalization when infected, but these results
convinced the country's Pac-12 and Big Ten collegiate
conferences to postpone games](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreib5ia6o7wz4lshad6lxc33ekpm3kciw5svbim3fhnfkyhz2aglno4@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:45 PM
The study also elaborates on the link between severe/long Covid and high athletic ability, noting that:
'Between June and August 2020, a group of doctors in the USA performed cardiac magnetic resonance imaging on 26 competitive college athletes recovering from COVID-19 disease...
'Between June and August 2020, a group of doctors in the USA performed cardiac magnetic resonance imaging on 26 competitive college athletes recovering from COVID-19 disease...
Parkinson's is a well-known autoimmune disease triggered by Covid and as noted here:
![following SARS-CoV-2 infection have been cast in terms of
concerns that the virus "may damage brain cells" [68]. King et al.
also recommended lifetime cardiovascular management
following Kawasaki disease [69], echoing concerns related to
dysregulated immune response and acute myocarditis with
COVID-19.
One more eponymous autoimmune disease to receive attention
during the pandemic is Parkinson's disease[70], [71], which can
present with increased levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines in
the brain, including IL-6 [72] and immune dysregulation [73].
Over the course of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, there was "a
2-3-fold-increased risk" of Parkinson's disease [74], and in
October 2020, Israeli physicians reported a single case of
probable parkinsonism following SARS-CoV-2 infection [75].
Moreover, Swedish research published in the same month
identified high IQ as a risk factor for Parkinson's disease [76],
which reiterates previous findings reliant on occupational
complexity measures [77],](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreihtvgdrp4nk2ukb3hmmqttx5hefa6ldewnbea3ygezprfm3il6erq@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:45 PM
Parkinson's is a well-known autoimmune disease triggered by Covid and as noted here:
Covid acute and long is basically an autoimmune disease, and triggers many autoimmune diseases too: the links explored here.
![dentifying similarities between autoimmune
diseases and COVID-19
Based on reports of antiphospholipid syndrome, autoimmune
cytopenia, Guillain-Barré syndrome and Kawasaki disease, a
"crossroad" of autoimmunity and SARS-CoV2 infection has been
a topic of considerable interest to researchers (reviewed by
Rodríguez Y et al. [60]). Early connections between COVID-19
outcomes and MIS-C highlighted similarities with the acute
multisysteminflammatory Kawasaki disease, one of the most
common causes of acquired heart disease in children. Our
review did not find an association between paediatric Kawasaki
disease and a high IQ, other than noting a significantly higher
incidence of the disease in South Asian countries (highest in
Japan [61]), which rank top in international IQ lists [62]. Of
relevance however, levels of IL-6 can be significantly higher
when Kawasaki disease patients develop (even rarer) Kawasaki
disease shock syndrome (KDSS) [63], such that treatment
strategies stress the importa](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreibbpficaxok3l3kpe6cc2pbmobxhtk2l7ensi2kigy5ncejrrymfi@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:45 PM
Covid acute and long is basically an autoimmune disease, and triggers many autoimmune diseases too: the links explored here.
The 'twice exceptional' link is illustrated here:
(These groupings of course will be very familiar to the Covid aware as most of us fit in to one or more (usually more) of these categories)
(These groupings of course will be very familiar to the Covid aware as most of us fit in to one or more (usually more) of these categories)
December 3, 2024 at 5:41 PM
The 'twice exceptional' link is illustrated here:
(These groupings of course will be very familiar to the Covid aware as most of us fit in to one or more (usually more) of these categories)
(These groupings of course will be very familiar to the Covid aware as most of us fit in to one or more (usually more) of these categories)
...This may be particularly relevant to our hypothesis given a recent synthesis report that proposed a genetic connection between ASD and a high IQ (“autism as a disorder of high intelligence”...
![Furthermore, based on the increased risk of inflammation and immune
dysregulation reported in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD)
[53], [54], researchers have been prompted to examine whether ASD
could be a paediatric risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 [55]. This may be
particularly relevant to our hypothesis given a recent synthesis report
that proposed a genetic connection between ASD and a high IQ ("autism
as a disorder of high intelligence" [56]). Offering "new insights and
research questions into the nature and inter-relationships of
intelligence, autism, and schizophrenia", the article cited genetic studies
suggesting common alleles "for" autism "overlap substantially and
significantly with alleles "for" high intelligence". Given these shared
alleles, together with evidence of a high IQ co-occurrence in some
children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) [58] (a
condition commonly co-existing in children with ASD [57]), it is
plausible that children with a high IQ](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreie4bt6ogefk2w2fyv7fxlwyajqixjwnges4tftv5oeziujdfy2icu@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:38 PM
...This may be particularly relevant to our hypothesis given a recent synthesis report that proposed a genetic connection between ASD and a high IQ (“autism as a disorder of high intelligence”...
'Supporting our hypothesis, the role of acute stress in exacerbating pro-inflammatory cytokine induction [52] points to a potential special psychoneuroimmunological vulnerability in children with a high IQ.'
![IQ, stress and autism spectrum disorder
Acting as a pro-inflammatory cytokine, IL-6 is also elevated by
psychological stressors, such as depression, with "an increased
secretion" found in "high-stressed children" [44]. The SARS-CoV-2
pandemic has been reported as posing significant psychological health
risks to all children [45], but evidence suggests that a high IQ may
increase those risks [46], [47]. Dabrowski included "imaginational, and
emotional domains" in his description of multiple intelligences in
individuals with a high IQ [18], and other researchers have suggested
these individuals are "more sensitive to existential issues" [48]. One
report on suicide in children with a high IQ described them as
"understanding adult situations and world events but being powerless
to affect their outcomes" [49]. Some perceived "problems that the world
created" as "catastrophic", and their "solution was to remove all the
problems, all at once". Correspondingly, a recent literature review
explo](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreihbh47dyqyrgdsbmr3l2wnrujgs427rt2djfbosdin6wvkz2mu2z4@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:38 PM
'Supporting our hypothesis, the role of acute stress in exacerbating pro-inflammatory cytokine induction [52] points to a potential special psychoneuroimmunological vulnerability in children with a high IQ.'
...be dysregulated in high IQ/gifted:
![n the first week of infection, SARS-CoV-2 activates T cells, including
virus-specific memory CD4+ cells that peak within two weeks, and
remain detectable for a longer period in up to 100% of COVID-19 patients
[38]. Long-lived memory T and B cells are a key feature of autoimmune
diseases such as jSLE and lupus nephritis (LN), to name two, and in jSLE,
an association with pro-inflammatory cytokines is evident [39], [40]. Of
relevance, given the evidence linking IL-6 and a high IQ, recent reports
indicate that "SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells" and "long-lasting memory T
cells" may have a protective effect in patients recovering from COVID-19,
and those who have never contracted the disease [41]. A 2008 study of
H17 influenza virus in rodents reported that the activity of CD4+ T cells
"diminished in the absence of IL-6", thereby compromising protective
anti-viral immunity. When the virus activated dendritic cells (which
process and present antigen to Tcells), high levels of IL-6 were produced](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreicvurlcsytcvkcptccsis4h7ndwyrb6mqx3wrjevvl56yrx3kmxoa@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:35 PM
...be dysregulated in high IQ/gifted:
The study authors hypothesize that this could be due to several reasons, including a heightened immune response in high-IQ/gifted individuals through the release of higher levels of cytokines (inflammation)...
![The role of interleukin-6 overproduction in SARS-CoV-2
infection
Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is a pleotropic cytokine with a key role in regulating
the body's immune response to viruses, and its overexpression is
associated with immune system dysregulation [27]. Macrophage
activation syndrome (MAS), which is related to hemophagocytic
lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), is a rare complication of systemic juvenile
idiopathic arthritis (SJIA), an autoimmune paediatric disease where
increased levels of IL-6 correlate with disease activity [28]. Increased
levels of IL-6 are noted with juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus
(jSLE) [29], [30], and have been used as a potential biomarker in the
treatment of paediatric patients with non-juvenile idiopathic arthritis
[31]. Elevated IL-6 levels have also been associated with increased
disease severity in influenza virus infections; H1N1 influenza A [32],
SARS-CoV-1 [27], and numerous paediatric cases with SARS-CoV-2 [33],
including MIS-C [9], [34], [35]. A recen](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreie555lk4uoehc452vjcdkkkc4iccz4j4sptl63nwz43qi2u5zs6i4@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:34 PM
The study authors hypothesize that this could be due to several reasons, including a heightened immune response in high-IQ/gifted individuals through the release of higher levels of cytokines (inflammation)...
'An estimated 2% of the general population has a high IQ [15], [85]. Via media reports alone, our review identified 27 cases where evidence of a high IQ was indicated (including 17 deaths in the USA, or 15% of the total 112 deaths reported there by October 1, 2020'
![Numbers of severe paediatric COVID-19 outcomes worldwide are
currently very small (a near zero mortality rate [93]; 0.07% children have
died in the USA [94]) and an estimated 2% of the general population has
a high IQ [15], [85]. Via media reports alone, our review identified 27
cases where evidence of a high IQ was indicated (including 17 deaths in
the USA, or 15% of the total 112 deaths reported there by October 1, 2020
[94]). Autoinflammatory evidence suggests IL-6 may amplify paediatric
response to infections and contribute to a cytokine storm, and some
researchers suggest, "Early detection of children with mild symptoms or
an asymptomatic state, and early diagnosis of MIS-C are mandatory for
the management of COVID-19 and the prevention of transmission and a
severe inflammatory state" [95]. Similarly, Karpinski et al. argued the
beneficial impact of understanding the relationship between high IQ
and illness, and recent SJIA studies report a very low rate of MAS
episodes (or milder](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreifwxkwfeznycdxh5egbfawn6xng2m7duopy5bvkyjxqnrt7y2kbwu@jpeg)
December 3, 2024 at 5:32 PM
'An estimated 2% of the general population has a high IQ [15], [85]. Via media reports alone, our review identified 27 cases where evidence of a high IQ was indicated (including 17 deaths in the USA, or 15% of the total 112 deaths reported there by October 1, 2020'
I think this sounds very likely to me and again, I stress that these findings are unlikely to pertain just to children - although kids are the only group being studied in the present study.
December 3, 2024 at 5:29 PM
I think this sounds very likely to me and again, I stress that these findings are unlikely to pertain just to children - although kids are the only group being studied in the present study.