Gavekal
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Gavekal is one of the leading independent providers of global investment research. It also advises a select range of funds and offers software solutions.
China’s real GDP growth continues to outpace that of the US, but its nominal growth is weak. This means that when measured at market exchange rates, China’s economy has actually declined relative to the US since around 2022.
November 10, 2025 at 1:31 PM
China’s real GDP growth continues to outpace that of the US, but its nominal growth is weak. This means that when measured at market exchange rates, China’s economy has actually declined relative to the US since around 2022.
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers.
November 6, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers.
Amid the gloom in Europe around US tariffs, there are silver linings. A closer look at the growing web of US trade deals suggests an increase in European competitiveness against other foreign suppliers in the US market.
October 31, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Amid the gloom in Europe around US tariffs, there are silver linings. A closer look at the growing web of US trade deals suggests an increase in European competitiveness against other foreign suppliers in the US market.
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics temporarily dark due to the US government shutdown, investors and the Federal Reserve must rely on other employment data. Worryingly, ADP’s private payroll estimate showed its most significant contraction of this cycle. 🧵📈
October 6, 2025 at 12:35 PM
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics temporarily dark due to the US government shutdown, investors and the Federal Reserve must rely on other employment data. Worryingly, ADP’s private payroll estimate showed its most significant contraction of this cycle. 🧵📈
As the largest country by weight in MSCI’s benchmark for emerging market equities, the movements in Chinese stocks have had a disproportionately high impact on the rest of the EM universe. However, that close relationship seems to have changed in recent years.
September 30, 2025 at 1:39 PM
As the largest country by weight in MSCI’s benchmark for emerging market equities, the movements in Chinese stocks have had a disproportionately high impact on the rest of the EM universe. However, that close relationship seems to have changed in recent years.
Chinese households are increasingly opting to eat at home. Since the reopening from the pandemic, restaurant sales have risen at a slower pace than food and cooking oil sales, a rough proxy for at-home dining. The gap continues to widen in 2025.
September 26, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Chinese households are increasingly opting to eat at home. Since the reopening from the pandemic, restaurant sales have risen at a slower pace than food and cooking oil sales, a rough proxy for at-home dining. The gap continues to widen in 2025.
Donald Trump’s attempts to lean on Federal Reserve policymakers to cut US interest rates are a reminder that central bank independence is not set in stone, and that monetary policy everywhere is potentially at risk of political interference.
September 25, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Donald Trump’s attempts to lean on Federal Reserve policymakers to cut US interest rates are a reminder that central bank independence is not set in stone, and that monetary policy everywhere is potentially at risk of political interference.
The benefits might be uneven as older, more energy-intensive industries could continue to struggle. Nonetheless, improving demand should provide a welcome cyclical tailwind, supporting even the most structurally challenged sectors. Read more here: research.gavekal.com/teaser/a-dem...
September 9, 2025 at 2:28 PM
The benefits might be uneven as older, more energy-intensive industries could continue to struggle. Nonetheless, improving demand should provide a welcome cyclical tailwind, supporting even the most structurally challenged sectors. Read more here: research.gavekal.com/teaser/a-dem...
There are several potential drivers of China’s recent equity-market rally, ranging from optimism about artificial intelligence to a reach for yield among household and companies. But the focus of attention is on the policy campaign against “involutionary competition.”
September 2, 2025 at 3:15 PM
There are several potential drivers of China’s recent equity-market rally, ranging from optimism about artificial intelligence to a reach for yield among household and companies. But the focus of attention is on the policy campaign against “involutionary competition.”
This week, US President Donald Trump met his South Korean counterpart at the White House in a summit intended to reset the two countries’ economic relations.
August 29, 2025 at 1:06 PM
This week, US President Donald Trump met his South Korean counterpart at the White House in a summit intended to reset the two countries’ economic relations.
With demand having been moved forward, and approaching a period of unfavorable base effects in the data, retail sales growth and durable consumer goods momentum should slow. Still, the new stimulus measures should at least partially offset this and buoy overall consumption.
August 27, 2025 at 1:53 PM
With demand having been moved forward, and approaching a period of unfavorable base effects in the data, retail sales growth and durable consumer goods momentum should slow. Still, the new stimulus measures should at least partially offset this and buoy overall consumption.
When Jerome Powell stands up on Friday to speak for the last time at the Jackson Hole symposium as Federal Reserve chair, he will have one eye on his legacy as principal defender of the Fed’s independence in troubled times. 🧵📼
August 20, 2025 at 1:38 PM
When Jerome Powell stands up on Friday to speak for the last time at the Jackson Hole symposium as Federal Reserve chair, he will have one eye on his legacy as principal defender of the Fed’s independence in troubled times. 🧵📼
Sure, weak payroll growth and soft PMIs make a strong case for a cut. Overall inflation is also now arguably close enough to the Fed’s target to allow for cuts. CPI averaged an annualized 2.3% over the past three months, and it tends to run about 30 bp above the Fed’s preferred PCE price measure.
August 19, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Sure, weak payroll growth and soft PMIs make a strong case for a cut. Overall inflation is also now arguably close enough to the Fed’s target to allow for cuts. CPI averaged an annualized 2.3% over the past three months, and it tends to run about 30 bp above the Fed’s preferred PCE price measure.
There is a difference between the typical story told about China in the West and the reality on the ground, says Tom Miller, who just came back from a month-long visit. 📼
August 14, 2025 at 3:28 PM
There is a difference between the typical story told about China in the West and the reality on the ground, says Tom Miller, who just came back from a month-long visit. 📼
China’s solar-module industry faces a supply glut, with domestic production capacity more than twice the country’s combined domestic installations and exports in 2024. 🧵📈
August 11, 2025 at 1:48 PM
China’s solar-module industry faces a supply glut, with domestic production capacity more than twice the country’s combined domestic installations and exports in 2024. 🧵📈
In this week’s interview, US economist Tan Kai Xian examines what this might portend for interest rates and the performance of US equities through the rest of 2025 and into next year: research.gavekal.com/teaser/video...
August 8, 2025 at 7:46 AM
In this week’s interview, US economist Tan Kai Xian examines what this might portend for interest rates and the performance of US equities through the rest of 2025 and into next year: research.gavekal.com/teaser/video...
Notably, the effect of the European Central Bank’s interest rate cuts is becoming visible in a bank lending recovery across the eurozone.
August 4, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Notably, the effect of the European Central Bank’s interest rate cuts is becoming visible in a bank lending recovery across the eurozone.
Together, the dual impulses from EU and German spending will deliver a powerful boost to the European economy just as the broader cyclical recovery gathers steam. Read more here: research.gavekal.com/teaser/europ...
July 28, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Together, the dual impulses from EU and German spending will deliver a powerful boost to the European economy just as the broader cyclical recovery gathers steam. Read more here: research.gavekal.com/teaser/europ...
China’s government promised more fiscal stimulus this year as well as a different type of stimulus: a shift away from previous years' heavy reliance on low-return infrastructure projects. But bond sales data show a modest shift, partly towards support for the property market and financial stability.
July 21, 2025 at 2:11 PM
China’s government promised more fiscal stimulus this year as well as a different type of stimulus: a shift away from previous years' heavy reliance on low-return infrastructure projects. But bond sales data show a modest shift, partly towards support for the property market and financial stability.
The housing market has been a key driver of the US economy, yet it remains mired in gloom. With homes remaining unaffordable on most historical measures, end user demand is weak. This is leading to softening construction activity, as shown by permits for new starts still falling.
July 17, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The housing market has been a key driver of the US economy, yet it remains mired in gloom. With homes remaining unaffordable on most historical measures, end user demand is weak. This is leading to softening construction activity, as shown by permits for new starts still falling.
In Wednesday’s interview, Tom Miller examined whether the Brics bloc can formulate a coherent pushback to Trump’s tariffs and assessed the group’s progress towards dedollarization.
July 11, 2025 at 8:46 AM
In Wednesday’s interview, Tom Miller examined whether the Brics bloc can formulate a coherent pushback to Trump’s tariffs and assessed the group’s progress towards dedollarization.
The calmness in the corporate credit market may be attributed to an improvement in corporate balance sheets which has lowered the risk of defaults.
July 7, 2025 at 2:29 PM
The calmness in the corporate credit market may be attributed to an improvement in corporate balance sheets which has lowered the risk of defaults.
The Trump administration is putting pressure on US allies to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP. That “global standard” comprises core military spending of 3.5% of GDP along with 1.5% of GDP worth of spending on related logistics and infrastructure.
June 30, 2025 at 4:54 PM
The Trump administration is putting pressure on US allies to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP. That “global standard” comprises core military spending of 3.5% of GDP along with 1.5% of GDP worth of spending on related logistics and infrastructure.
European members of Nato have agreed to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP. The question is whether to take this pledge seriously, or see it as a mere ruse to assuage US President Donald Trump. 🧵📼
June 27, 2025 at 3:52 PM
European members of Nato have agreed to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP. The question is whether to take this pledge seriously, or see it as a mere ruse to assuage US President Donald Trump. 🧵📼
China’s corporate margins have been contracting since 2021, and are now near the lowest level in a decade. The reason is that producer prices have been falling for three years. 🧵📈
June 23, 2025 at 9:38 AM
China’s corporate margins have been contracting since 2021, and are now near the lowest level in a decade. The reason is that producer prices have been falling for three years. 🧵📈