Grizwald
@grizwald.bsky.social
It takes time for an impact like this to percolate through a global alliance. The divorce doesn't always arrive immediately after the affair.
I'm laying my marker down: Americans blithely expecting a mulligan for Trump 2 are in for a rude awakening.
I'm laying my marker down: Americans blithely expecting a mulligan for Trump 2 are in for a rude awakening.
December 9, 2025 at 4:46 PM
It takes time for an impact like this to percolate through a global alliance. The divorce doesn't always arrive immediately after the affair.
I'm laying my marker down: Americans blithely expecting a mulligan for Trump 2 are in for a rude awakening.
I'm laying my marker down: Americans blithely expecting a mulligan for Trump 2 are in for a rude awakening.
We'll see. I am anecdotally noticing the evidence pile up of a distinct split between Americans and everyone else on this issue, with the Americans treating the current moment as an embarrassing blip that they don't expect to be held against them in 3 years.
The axe forgets, the tree remembers.
The axe forgets, the tree remembers.
December 9, 2025 at 4:44 PM
We'll see. I am anecdotally noticing the evidence pile up of a distinct split between Americans and everyone else on this issue, with the Americans treating the current moment as an embarrassing blip that they don't expect to be held against them in 3 years.
The axe forgets, the tree remembers.
The axe forgets, the tree remembers.
As we speak, the US is currently trying to negotiate a deal with the Russians to carve up a European democracy like a Christmas turkey.
I think to American progressives, Trump is trying to do that. To the rest of the world, the US is trying to do that.
I think to American progressives, Trump is trying to do that. To the rest of the world, the US is trying to do that.
December 9, 2025 at 4:40 PM
As we speak, the US is currently trying to negotiate a deal with the Russians to carve up a European democracy like a Christmas turkey.
I think to American progressives, Trump is trying to do that. To the rest of the world, the US is trying to do that.
I think to American progressives, Trump is trying to do that. To the rest of the world, the US is trying to do that.
I don't think it overstates the case at all, and I think this might be an example of a general trend of Americans underestimating the damage Trump has done to America's international standing.
Nobody believes the US can be relied on as a trading partner or to come save them.
Nobody believes the US can be relied on as a trading partner or to come save them.
December 9, 2025 at 4:37 PM
I don't think it overstates the case at all, and I think this might be an example of a general trend of Americans underestimating the damage Trump has done to America's international standing.
Nobody believes the US can be relied on as a trading partner or to come save them.
Nobody believes the US can be relied on as a trading partner or to come save them.
I don't think anybody in the EU or Canada wants a western alliance that doesn't include the United States, but that's what we're currently dealing with. Literally a United States-shaped hole in the world's security landscape. It's not good!
December 9, 2025 at 4:21 PM
I don't think anybody in the EU or Canada wants a western alliance that doesn't include the United States, but that's what we're currently dealing with. Literally a United States-shaped hole in the world's security landscape. It's not good!
Reposted by Grizwald
The character limit is there to discourage posting the full text of the Unabomber’s manifesto
December 8, 2025 at 8:44 AM
The character limit is there to discourage posting the full text of the Unabomber’s manifesto
I think sometimes the most important strategic art is accepting that the impossible is, in fact, impossible, which opens the mind to creative alternatives.
December 8, 2025 at 4:12 AM
I think sometimes the most important strategic art is accepting that the impossible is, in fact, impossible, which opens the mind to creative alternatives.
IIRC the US Army field manual declares minefields laid that densely impassible. US doctrine would have been to avoid that mine belt altogether.
December 8, 2025 at 1:42 AM
IIRC the US Army field manual declares minefields laid that densely impassible. US doctrine would have been to avoid that mine belt altogether.
And yes, absolutely, those people exist. Being overcome by sheer terror to the point of inability to function in combat is far from unknown, especially for those who haven't experienced it before. But the symptom of that is hiding, not refusal to return fire when in a position to do so.
December 6, 2025 at 9:50 PM
And yes, absolutely, those people exist. Being overcome by sheer terror to the point of inability to function in combat is far from unknown, especially for those who haven't experienced it before. But the symptom of that is hiding, not refusal to return fire when in a position to do so.
What you're talking about sounds more commensurate with fear of exposing one's own life to danger than with a lack of willingness to kill.
December 6, 2025 at 9:49 PM
What you're talking about sounds more commensurate with fear of exposing one's own life to danger than with a lack of willingness to kill.
Being a great prose stylist almost makes him more dangerous than Marshall! Again, I'd be curious to know what evidence he's relying on, because IMHO it's difficult to reconcile killing being psychologically difficult with the rate at which Americans shoot each other in road rage incidents.
December 6, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Being a great prose stylist almost makes him more dangerous than Marshall! Again, I'd be curious to know what evidence he's relying on, because IMHO it's difficult to reconcile killing being psychologically difficult with the rate at which Americans shoot each other in road rage incidents.
You don't think hostile infantry shooting at you produces a kill-or-be-killed sensation?
December 6, 2025 at 9:43 PM
You don't think hostile infantry shooting at you produces a kill-or-be-killed sensation?
Wouldn't this imply that soldiers are better off without plates? If so, I think that's pretty exceptional claim that requires exceptional evidence.
December 6, 2025 at 9:41 PM
Wouldn't this imply that soldiers are better off without plates? If so, I think that's pretty exceptional claim that requires exceptional evidence.
I'd be curious what evidence he uses, because I think the practical evidence in, say, Chicago's South Side is that if they're given access to firearms, teenage boys will kill each other at the drop of a hat.
December 6, 2025 at 9:37 PM
I'd be curious what evidence he uses, because I think the practical evidence in, say, Chicago's South Side is that if they're given access to firearms, teenage boys will kill each other at the drop of a hat.
This dynamic appears in Generational Kill - it's the less-experienced reservists who evoke peals of laughter among the regulars for going full "death blossom" and laying down final protective fire against a non-existent threat.
December 6, 2025 at 9:34 PM
This dynamic appears in Generational Kill - it's the less-experienced reservists who evoke peals of laughter among the regulars for going full "death blossom" and laying down final protective fire against a non-existent threat.
And the funny thing is, we all should have caught on a lot sooner, because anecotally it's always the inexperienced soldier or cop who has the itchy trigger finger and shoots at something or someone they shouldn't have.
December 6, 2025 at 9:33 PM
And the funny thing is, we all should have caught on a lot sooner, because anecotally it's always the inexperienced soldier or cop who has the itchy trigger finger and shoots at something or someone they shouldn't have.
I believe I'm referring SLA Marshall...yep, just checked google, that's the guy. IIRC his book Men Against Fire is now basically considered academic fraud.
December 6, 2025 at 9:32 PM
I believe I'm referring SLA Marshall...yep, just checked google, that's the guy. IIRC his book Men Against Fire is now basically considered academic fraud.
I would be very curious to know how realistic that suggestion is. I have no frame of reference.
December 6, 2025 at 9:25 PM
I would be very curious to know how realistic that suggestion is. I have no frame of reference.
The Algerian War was the case study they used, where the torturers would hit rebel safehouses at addresses provided by the victims.
That said, I won the overall argument by pointing out that the torture, when revealed, caused such revulsion amongst the French public that it lost them the war.
That said, I won the overall argument by pointing out that the torture, when revealed, caused such revulsion amongst the French public that it lost them the war.
December 6, 2025 at 9:23 PM
The Algerian War was the case study they used, where the torturers would hit rebel safehouses at addresses provided by the victims.
That said, I won the overall argument by pointing out that the torture, when revealed, caused such revulsion amongst the French public that it lost them the war.
That said, I won the overall argument by pointing out that the torture, when revealed, caused such revulsion amongst the French public that it lost them the war.
I was forced to concede in an argument about a year ago that torture can work situationally - specifically in situations where the torturer is able to rapidly and consistently confirm the accuracy of the information that's being tortured out of the victim.
December 6, 2025 at 9:21 PM
I was forced to concede in an argument about a year ago that torture can work situationally - specifically in situations where the torturer is able to rapidly and consistently confirm the accuracy of the information that's being tortured out of the victim.
I suppose the argument would be that you can always take the optics off, right? I know nothing about the M7 that isn't on Wikipedia, but the picture of it looks like it's got iron sights folded down that can be popped into place if the optic is removed.
December 6, 2025 at 9:18 PM
I suppose the argument would be that you can always take the optics off, right? I know nothing about the M7 that isn't on Wikipedia, but the picture of it looks like it's got iron sights folded down that can be popped into place if the optic is removed.
My amateur assumption is that any time any round came close, it would suppress a combatant, but it sounds like especially at long range, you need to "persuade" experienced combatants that you're actually likely to hit them.
December 6, 2025 at 9:14 PM
My amateur assumption is that any time any round came close, it would suppress a combatant, but it sounds like especially at long range, you need to "persuade" experienced combatants that you're actually likely to hit them.
I was listening to a Green Beret veteran discussing his experience of incoming fire, and it supports this view of the psychology of suppression. He described how a round would come close, he'd pay attention, and he'd then judge based on whether the next round also came close whether to take cover.
December 6, 2025 at 9:12 PM
I was listening to a Green Beret veteran discussing his experience of incoming fire, and it supports this view of the psychology of suppression. He described how a round would come close, he'd pay attention, and he'd then judge based on whether the next round also came close whether to take cover.
I'm five minutes, does he talk about defeating body armor at any point? Because google suggests that that's a significant program goal, it makes pretty good sense to me, but it doesn't seem to be coming up in your discussion or his video.
December 6, 2025 at 8:04 PM
I'm five minutes, does he talk about defeating body armor at any point? Because google suggests that that's a significant program goal, it makes pretty good sense to me, but it doesn't seem to be coming up in your discussion or his video.