Yep, it’s a hard one to call. Local Tories have been in meltdown, but they’d need to lose in excess of two thirds of their vote for RUK to win. A lower rate of collapse would allow the SNP to sneak it on LD, Lab & Green transfers. Assuming SNP vote doesn’t also collapse!

Thanks for responding. Yougov apply likelihood to vote weighting for other VI questions but not for #indyref. So reported D/K, would not vote & refused tends to be higher than other pollsters.
All other pollsters apply some sort of turnout weighting. Chart shows pollster averages over recent years.

Is there any particular reason @dylandifford.bsky.social why Yougov don’t apply voting/ turnout likelihood weighting to the #Indyref questions?

For this reason it’s always an outlier with high levels of d/k and very odd figures for the young.

Remember it's STV, so the Green vote will mostly get transferred. Hopefully all the progressive votes will roll together after transfers to keep Reform out. Tories are toast!

Not so much that, as the Did not vote % pegged at November 2022 level (21%). Also 2014 vote weighting applied (boosts No) and no likelihood to vote weighting applied. All round a real mess.

Agree, but hold off till after May plz