If x*0.5 + z*0.5 > y then go for it (roughly).

Has anybody run the win probability numbers? Or are they too miniscule to trust at this level of precision?

3/

I think you can make the argument that at that point in the game the information is more valuable to the trailing team? I guess?

But this should just be a straightforward win probability calc:

WP down 9: x
WP down 8: y
WP down 7: z

2/

It was fun to hear the various strategies from people in line:

"We're staying here for no more than 10 minutes and then we're leaving"
"We're not leaving. As soon as we leave, they'll open the ride up a minute later."
"I heard if the wait is longer than 20 minutes they make you get out of line".

So far, offensive efficiency roughly in line with the post-2022 norm.

And calling a timeout gives your opponent a chance to make adjustments too.

This result is consistent with recent research on icing the kicker in the NFL (I think*) - after controlling for distance, there is little evidence that icing has an impact on field goal success.

* I haven't found a definitive study on this, so if any one has links, let me know

In addition to halting an opponent run, timeouts can be used to "ice the server" in high leverage situations.

As with the results on opponent runs, calling a TO in a high pressure situation does not appear to impact the server's performance on the following point.

3/

In a recent post from Kevin Dewandeler, he took a very thorough look at this topic for the NBA, and came to similar conclusions: timeouts don't appear to have an impact on opponent momentum.

open.substack.com/pub/kevindew...

2/

link: stats.inpredictable.com/nba/preCap.php

Perfect, just added to the list. We're up to 25 songs now.

3 more:
22. Bill Withers - Kissing My Love
23. The Meters - Hey Pocky A-way
24. The Beatles - What You're Doing

I imagine these 24 songs are high on the list of "most sampled songs".

Paul's Boutique alone samples 4 songs on this list.