Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de
Russia & Economics
All views private
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin)
Picture: Tamek Kowalski
All views private
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin)
Picture: Tamek Kowalski
Usually, 18% of Russian budget spending happens in December. This year, only 13% is left - if Russia wants to stay within its budget plan. Most likely, the plan will change. Historical patterns indicate total spending of 45 trillion rubles and a deficit of 8 trillion rubles (3.6% of GDP).
December 9, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Usually, 18% of Russian budget spending happens in December. This year, only 13% is left - if Russia wants to stay within its budget plan. Most likely, the plan will change. Historical patterns indicate total spending of 45 trillion rubles and a deficit of 8 trillion rubles (3.6% of GDP).
PS: Strictly speaking, based on historical averages, the expected deficit is 3.8% of GDP.
December 3, 2025 at 1:41 PM
PS: Strictly speaking, based on historical averages, the expected deficit is 3.8% of GDP.
Russian federal budget execution at the end of November 2025 continues to suggest an additional unplanned overrun of 1% of GDP this year and a deficit closer to 3.5% of GDP than the expected 2.6% of GDP.
December 3, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Russian federal budget execution at the end of November 2025 continues to suggest an additional unplanned overrun of 1% of GDP this year and a deficit closer to 3.5% of GDP than the expected 2.6% of GDP.
Russian oil and gas revenues relative to GDP...
December 3, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Russian oil and gas revenues relative to GDP...
Russian oil and gas revenues slightly fell in November (the effects of US sanctions will only show in the coming months).
December 3, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Russian oil and gas revenues slightly fell in November (the effects of US sanctions will only show in the coming months).
You can find all the data and the charts here:
janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-fe...
janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-fe...
November 17, 2025 at 5:04 PM
You can find all the data and the charts here:
janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-fe...
janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-fe...
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
November 17, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
Here's another way to illustrate why Russia's budget plan for 2025 is unrealistic:
To stay within the spending plan, Russia would have to fit the light and dark blue parts (November and December) into the red box (the remaining budget this year).
Read more: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-un...
To stay within the spending plan, Russia would have to fit the light and dark blue parts (November and December) into the red box (the remaining budget this year).
Read more: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-un...
November 12, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Here's another way to illustrate why Russia's budget plan for 2025 is unrealistic:
To stay within the spending plan, Russia would have to fit the light and dark blue parts (November and December) into the red box (the remaining budget this year).
Read more: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-un...
To stay within the spending plan, Russia would have to fit the light and dark blue parts (November and December) into the red box (the remaining budget this year).
Read more: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-un...
October 2024 was unusually big, 9.6% of annual spending. Long-term average is 8% of total, October 2025 was 7.9% of plan (or 7.5% of forecast).
November 11, 2025 at 7:10 PM
October 2024 was unusually big, 9.6% of annual spending. Long-term average is 8% of total, October 2025 was 7.9% of plan (or 7.5% of forecast).
Russia's latest budget figures (January–October) are out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the budget deficit will be higher than expected. After 10 months, 80% of the budget has already been spent — compared to the normal rate of 74%.
November 11, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Russia's latest budget figures (January–October) are out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the budget deficit will be higher than expected. After 10 months, 80% of the budget has already been spent — compared to the normal rate of 74%.
My latest post also discusses why several regions lowered their sign-on bonuses. These regions are "recruitment overachievers" who could afford to focus on fixing their budgets. Read more here: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-re...
November 11, 2025 at 11:00 AM
My latest post also discusses why several regions lowered their sign-on bonuses. These regions are "recruitment overachievers" who could afford to focus on fixing their budgets. Read more here: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-re...
Regional data also provides insights into Russian losses. Although this method of estimating Russian KIA is still "under development," the results closely align with Mediazona's 200 project data.
November 11, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Regional data also provides insights into Russian losses. Although this method of estimating Russian KIA is still "under development," the results closely align with Mediazona's 200 project data.
According to regional budget data, Russia continues to recruit approximately 30,000 men per month. This may explain why Russia is willing to lose thousands of soldiers each month in its assault on Ukraine, essentially treating its soldiers as "living munitions."
November 11, 2025 at 11:00 AM
According to regional budget data, Russia continues to recruit approximately 30,000 men per month. This may explain why Russia is willing to lose thousands of soldiers each month in its assault on Ukraine, essentially treating its soldiers as "living munitions."
Oil and gas revenues were equal to 4.3% of Russian monthly GDP (last October: 7.23%).
November 7, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Oil and gas revenues were equal to 4.3% of Russian monthly GDP (last October: 7.23%).
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.
November 7, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.
Russia's budget deficit will be even larger this year and could reach 3.5% of GDP. The recent budget correction assumes 42.8 trillion RUB expenditure, but Q4 would have to be historically frugal to achieve that target. After Q3, already 72% of the plan was spent. 66% is normal.
November 1, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Russia's budget deficit will be even larger this year and could reach 3.5% of GDP. The recent budget correction assumes 42.8 trillion RUB expenditure, but Q4 would have to be historically frugal to achieve that target. After Q3, already 72% of the plan was spent. 66% is normal.
Although, I only see one list... Maybe I'm missing something.
October 31, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Although, I only see one list... Maybe I'm missing something.
Another explanation for the stronger ruble: Some of Russia's oil taxes are paid quarterly, with the next round due at the end of the month. Russian oil exporters are exchanging export revenues into rubles to pay for these taxes.
October 28, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Another explanation for the stronger ruble: Some of Russia's oil taxes are paid quarterly, with the next round due at the end of the month. Russian oil exporters are exchanging export revenues into rubles to pay for these taxes.
The ruble is strengthening at the moment. It also strengthened after the US sanctioned Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft in January. One explanation is that Rosneft and Lukoil are transferring cash into Russia to protect it from being frozen.
October 28, 2025 at 10:04 AM
The ruble is strengthening at the moment. It also strengthened after the US sanctioned Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft in January. One explanation is that Rosneft and Lukoil are transferring cash into Russia to protect it from being frozen.
Contribution to consolidated revenue is ~9%.
October 25, 2025 at 8:15 AM
Contribution to consolidated revenue is ~9%.
Russian gasoline prices: Still rising, but not as fast anymore. Gasoline prices are heavily regulated, so it's not clear if this means that the crisis is over.
October 23, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Russian gasoline prices: Still rising, but not as fast anymore. Gasoline prices are heavily regulated, so it's not clear if this means that the crisis is over.
Good morning Bulgaria and Romania!
October 23, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Good morning Bulgaria and Romania!
I was never so happy to say that I was wrong: Trump actually did it. He imposed new sanctions on Russia.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
October 22, 2025 at 9:20 PM
I was never so happy to say that I was wrong: Trump actually did it. He imposed new sanctions on Russia.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
Russia's retail gasoline prices are rising at the highest pace since the start of the fullscale war. The accumulated price increase is also the highest. The 2023 price increase was not a scarcity like 2025, but a reduction in subsidies (you can see when the policy was reversed).
October 16, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Russia's retail gasoline prices are rising at the highest pace since the start of the fullscale war. The accumulated price increase is also the highest. The 2023 price increase was not a scarcity like 2025, but a reduction in subsidies (you can see when the policy was reversed).
How many Russian soldiers have died in the war against Ukraine? I made my own estimate based on regional budget data. The results are very close to those of Mediazona's "200" project, even though they use an entirely different data source.
October 15, 2025 at 3:53 PM
How many Russian soldiers have died in the war against Ukraine? I made my own estimate based on regional budget data. The results are very close to those of Mediazona's "200" project, even though they use an entirely different data source.