Stephen Miran (2024), one of Trump's econ advisors and tariff advocate, warned us. Unless tariffs come in "coordination" with allies and the Fed, expect "adverse" material consequences. Guess what. There is no coordination. Instead, allies are targetted, and the Fed, bypassed. Result: Turmoil
Trump is talking about a third term. Hmm. What do we know about presidents who defy constitutional term limits in Latin America? The typical path: they become dictators (Chávez, Ortega, Bukele, Fujimori). Another path: bring on the chaos (Zelaya, Morales, Fujimori, Lugo).
Dept of Health and Human Services: figure unknown (this includes Medicare and Medicaid Services, the Food and Drug Adm, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).
11. Defy the courts when they turn against you. Make sure you have a conflict with the court, so that you can counterattack them en bloc www.nytimes.com/2025/02/16/o...
9. Harass the free press. Create a hierarchy: good press (treat me kindly), full access; bad press, no access. Entangle news organization in legal battles www.politico.com/news/2025/02...
8. Replace the rule of law with autocratic legalism, which means: for my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law. For autocratic legalism, you need to end the independence of the justice department www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
7. Mobilize hate across society. Encouraging people to develop intense hate of some out-group (illegal immigrants, trans folks, ethnic minorities, Hollywood celebrities, elite colleges, dissenters) www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-...
6. Trash-talk institutions govt dislikes. Create images of institutions as guilty actors, harming agents, without conducting reviews or involving court procedures. Argue that their campaign is intended to save taxpayers' money www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
2. Ruling party acts like a rubber stamp. They like his policies and/or fear his retribution. Either way, they never say never. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
All my life I have studied democratization and autocratization. My 1st field trip was to newly democratic Argentina. I then added autocracies to my portfolio: Cuba, Ven, etc. I think I can recognize the stages of transition to authoritarianism. Here are the boxes Trump has already checked off.
In Argentina 2007, there were signs of autocratic populism when the government began to intervene economic agencies to manipulate inflation figures, as cover up. Similar type of autocratic creeping in the US now www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/o...
