This piece is so good and so needed and then you had to bring your music opinions into it…

8/🧵 And there's motivated reasoning everywhere. Conservatives want to believe they're winning the youth. Centrist Dems think the party needs to move right. Some progressives fear we're doomed. Consultants want to enter new expensive ad markets. Everyone finds anecdotes confirming their assumptions.

7/🧵 The loudest voices aren't the most representative. Every generation has extremists, but social media amplifies fringe movements beyond their size. A handful of young white nationalists create viral moments that crowd out broader trends. We mistake the exception for the rule.

6/🧵 Why does conventional wisdom miss this? We confuse electoral swings with attitude changes. Gen Z shifted 6 points toward Trump in 2024, suddenly pundits say they're "the most conservative generation in 50 years." Only 42% of Gen Z voted. We mistake turnout shifts for ideological transformation.

5/🧵 Race divides the Democratic Party more than it does Republicans. Young Republicans remain almost as racially resentful as older Republicans. But among Democrats and independents, massive shifts. White Gen Z independents have lower racial resentment than Boomer Democrats.

4/🧵 The generational shift isn't just among white Americans. Young Asian and Hispanic Americans show the same pattern: dramatic declines in racial resentment across education, gender, geography, and religion. This is a broad, multi-racial generational transformation.

3/🧵 This generational trend is consistent across every demographic subgroup you can imagine. Non-college Gen Z men? Lower racial resentment than college-educated elder Millennials. The pattern holds across gender, geography, and religion. Young men and women are moving in tandem.

2/🧵 New piece with @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social in @NewRepublic: We analyzed 60,000+ respondents in the 2024 Cooperative Election Study. Gen Z has the lowest racial resentment of any generation. The generational shift overwhelms the education divide that supposedly defines modern politics.