Jacob Kaarsbo
@jkaarsbo.bsky.social
Foreign, security and defence policy analysis. 15 yrs @ Danish Defence Intelligence Service. Sportsnerd.
The 🇺🇸 Nat Sec Strategy is celebrated by the Kremlin. It's no surprise, as Trump and Putin share largely the same world view. They want a weak and divided Europe they can dominate. That's the reality we're facing and the reality we MUST handle. Failure is not an option!
December 7, 2025 at 7:04 PM
The 🇺🇸 Nat Sec Strategy is celebrated by the Kremlin. It's no surprise, as Trump and Putin share largely the same world view. They want a weak and divided Europe they can dominate. That's the reality we're facing and the reality we MUST handle. Failure is not an option!
"Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth seems to be a war criminal. Without a war. An interesting achievement".
I'd say it's a historic achievement🙈
I'd say it's a historic achievement🙈
December 3, 2025 at 3:36 PM
"Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth seems to be a war criminal. Without a war. An interesting achievement".
I'd say it's a historic achievement🙈
I'd say it's a historic achievement🙈
It's in the Kremlin's strategic interest to keep up the diplomatic masquerade dressed up as "peace negotiations". The Coalition of the Willing mustn't take tbe bait!
Check out my latest 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Check out my latest 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
December 3, 2025 at 2:16 PM
It's in the Kremlin's strategic interest to keep up the diplomatic masquerade dressed up as "peace negotiations". The Coalition of the Willing mustn't take tbe bait!
Check out my latest 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Check out my latest 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
It’s in the Kremlin’s interest to keep the masquerade called “peace negotiations” going. The intent is to keep Ukraine’s supporters on the back foot while continuing the war on 🇺🇦. Trump is a witting asset waiting to pursue trillion dollar deals, Dimitriev has waved under his nose for months!
December 3, 2025 at 6:59 AM
It’s in the Kremlin’s interest to keep the masquerade called “peace negotiations” going. The intent is to keep Ukraine’s supporters on the back foot while continuing the war on 🇺🇦. Trump is a witting asset waiting to pursue trillion dollar deals, Dimitriev has waved under his nose for months!
For months, Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dimitriev have been cooking up how extract as much as possible for 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇸 through a deal about 🇺🇦 without 🇺🇦!
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
December 1, 2025 at 10:42 AM
For months, Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dimitriev have been cooking up how extract as much as possible for 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇸 through a deal about 🇺🇦 without 🇺🇦!
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Except MAGA-loyalists, are there any lawyers out there who wouldn’t define what Hegseth is ordering as either a war crime or extrajudicial killing? If a case is started in The Hague I guess we’ve seen our last NATO defence ministers meeting with 🇺🇸 participation! www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
November 30, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Except MAGA-loyalists, are there any lawyers out there who wouldn’t define what Hegseth is ordering as either a war crime or extrajudicial killing? If a case is started in The Hague I guess we’ve seen our last NATO defence ministers meeting with 🇺🇸 participation! www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
When Witkoff deals with Russia, it's "Russia First"!
Watch my take right here 👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Watch my take right here 👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
November 26, 2025 at 8:17 AM
When Witkoff deals with Russia, it's "Russia First"!
Watch my take right here 👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Watch my take right here 👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Political trials is the new normal!
November 25, 2025 at 5:19 AM
Political trials is the new normal!
What we're witnessing in Geneva is most likely a diplomatic masquerade. It keeps the 🇺🇦 and Europeans believing there's something to be achieved, but most likely it's another dead end. At the end of the day faux diplomacy serves Putin's interest! My take 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
November 24, 2025 at 9:38 AM
What we're witnessing in Geneva is most likely a diplomatic masquerade. It keeps the 🇺🇦 and Europeans believing there's something to be achieved, but most likely it's another dead end. At the end of the day faux diplomacy serves Putin's interest! My take 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Really enjoyed my chat with 🇨🇦 journalist Dean Blundell and a brilliant cameo by Trump’s former fixer Lev Parnas on the Witkoff-Dimitriev plan. Catch it right here👇🏻
open.substack.com/pub/deanblun...
open.substack.com/pub/deanblun...
November 22, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Really enjoyed my chat with 🇨🇦 journalist Dean Blundell and a brilliant cameo by Trump’s former fixer Lev Parnas on the Witkoff-Dimitriev plan. Catch it right here👇🏻
open.substack.com/pub/deanblun...
open.substack.com/pub/deanblun...
1) Witkoff and Dimitriev conspire to carve up 🇺🇦
2) 🇺🇸 NATO ambassador announces that US wants 🇩🇪 to take over SACEUR.
3) 🇷🇺 blows up 🇵🇱 railway track and forces 🇷🇴 evacuation of villages.
4) Trump hosts MBS AKA Mohamed bin Sawman at the White House.
Catch my brief here👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
2) 🇺🇸 NATO ambassador announces that US wants 🇩🇪 to take over SACEUR.
3) 🇷🇺 blows up 🇵🇱 railway track and forces 🇷🇴 evacuation of villages.
4) Trump hosts MBS AKA Mohamed bin Sawman at the White House.
Catch my brief here👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
November 20, 2025 at 9:24 AM
1) Witkoff and Dimitriev conspire to carve up 🇺🇦
2) 🇺🇸 NATO ambassador announces that US wants 🇩🇪 to take over SACEUR.
3) 🇷🇺 blows up 🇵🇱 railway track and forces 🇷🇴 evacuation of villages.
4) Trump hosts MBS AKA Mohamed bin Sawman at the White House.
Catch my brief here👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
2) 🇺🇸 NATO ambassador announces that US wants 🇩🇪 to take over SACEUR.
3) 🇷🇺 blows up 🇵🇱 railway track and forces 🇷🇴 evacuation of villages.
4) Trump hosts MBS AKA Mohamed bin Sawman at the White House.
Catch my brief here👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
1) Europe needs 🇺🇦 for European security
2) One of the Epstein files pulls the curtain on one of Epstein's Russian handlers, former and now deceased UN ambassador, Vitaly Churkin
Watch my briefing right here👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
2) One of the Epstein files pulls the curtain on one of Epstein's Russian handlers, former and now deceased UN ambassador, Vitaly Churkin
Watch my briefing right here👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
November 17, 2025 at 10:20 AM
1) Europe needs 🇺🇦 for European security
2) One of the Epstein files pulls the curtain on one of Epstein's Russian handlers, former and now deceased UN ambassador, Vitaly Churkin
Watch my briefing right here👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
2) One of the Epstein files pulls the curtain on one of Epstein's Russian handlers, former and now deceased UN ambassador, Vitaly Churkin
Watch my briefing right here👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Advarselslamperne for 🇺🇸 demokrati blinker blodrødt!
Tidligere kolleger fra CIA, NSA, FBI, State Department og Pentagon konkluderer i ny rapport, at 🇺🇸 med "moderat til høj sikkerhed" er på vej til at blive et "kompetitivt autokrati". Læs på @altingetdk.bsky.social www.altinget.dk/eu/artikel/a...
Tidligere kolleger fra CIA, NSA, FBI, State Department og Pentagon konkluderer i ny rapport, at 🇺🇸 med "moderat til høj sikkerhed" er på vej til at blive et "kompetitivt autokrati". Læs på @altingetdk.bsky.social www.altinget.dk/eu/artikel/a...
November 13, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Advarselslamperne for 🇺🇸 demokrati blinker blodrødt!
Tidligere kolleger fra CIA, NSA, FBI, State Department og Pentagon konkluderer i ny rapport, at 🇺🇸 med "moderat til høj sikkerhed" er på vej til at blive et "kompetitivt autokrati". Læs på @altingetdk.bsky.social www.altinget.dk/eu/artikel/a...
Tidligere kolleger fra CIA, NSA, FBI, State Department og Pentagon konkluderer i ny rapport, at 🇺🇸 med "moderat til høj sikkerhed" er på vej til at blive et "kompetitivt autokrati". Læs på @altingetdk.bsky.social www.altinget.dk/eu/artikel/a...
Ukraine is fighting the fight for everyone who cares about freedom and democracy.
Catch my briefing from the beautiful St. Michaels Golden Domed Monastery downtown Kyiv right here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Catch my briefing from the beautiful St. Michaels Golden Domed Monastery downtown Kyiv right here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
November 10, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Ukraine is fighting the fight for everyone who cares about freedom and democracy.
Catch my briefing from the beautiful St. Michaels Golden Domed Monastery downtown Kyiv right here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Catch my briefing from the beautiful St. Michaels Golden Domed Monastery downtown Kyiv right here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Like I said a million times: a Lukoil exemption for 🇭🇺, the fourth largest importer of 🇷🇺 oil! “Victor is my friend”…and you can add Vladimir to the list.
www.reuters.com/world/trump-...
www.reuters.com/world/trump-...
November 8, 2025 at 5:56 AM
Like I said a million times: a Lukoil exemption for 🇭🇺, the fourth largest importer of 🇷🇺 oil! “Victor is my friend”…and you can add Vladimir to the list.
www.reuters.com/world/trump-...
www.reuters.com/world/trump-...
The new 🇺🇸 ambassador who handed over his credentials to our King today has a personal stake in President Trump's effort to wrestle 🇬🇱 away from 🇩🇰! Watch my briefing right here👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
November 5, 2025 at 3:54 PM
The new 🇺🇸 ambassador who handed over his credentials to our King today has a personal stake in President Trump's effort to wrestle 🇬🇱 away from 🇩🇰! Watch my briefing right here👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
The results of the Trump Xi Summit were modest and neither 🇺🇦 nor 🇹🇼 was discussed.
🇨🇳 oil imports from 🇷🇺 wasn't on the table. It tells us that Trump is unlikely to do much about sanctions enforcement.
Watch my 5 min brief right here 👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
🇨🇳 oil imports from 🇷🇺 wasn't on the table. It tells us that Trump is unlikely to do much about sanctions enforcement.
Watch my 5 min brief right here 👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
October 31, 2025 at 9:26 AM
The results of the Trump Xi Summit were modest and neither 🇺🇦 nor 🇹🇼 was discussed.
🇨🇳 oil imports from 🇷🇺 wasn't on the table. It tells us that Trump is unlikely to do much about sanctions enforcement.
Watch my 5 min brief right here 👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
🇨🇳 oil imports from 🇷🇺 wasn't on the table. It tells us that Trump is unlikely to do much about sanctions enforcement.
Watch my 5 min brief right here 👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Sanctions always depend on enforcement. It’s essentially a game of whack-a-mole. I’m sceptical we’ll see the Trump administration do what’s necessary. Most likely the Rosneft Lukoil sanctions were performative. 🇨🇳 imports weren’t raised at the Trump-Xi summit either
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
October 31, 2025 at 5:59 AM
Sanctions always depend on enforcement. It’s essentially a game of whack-a-mole. I’m sceptical we’ll see the Trump administration do what’s necessary. Most likely the Rosneft Lukoil sanctions were performative. 🇨🇳 imports weren’t raised at the Trump-Xi summit either
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Within 24 hrs we see nuclear bluster about the "Burevestnik" missil and a Somali style technical just off the Red Square. The absurd scenes are signs of the trouble Russia is in on many fronts! My analysis👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
October 27, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Within 24 hrs we see nuclear bluster about the "Burevestnik" missil and a Somali style technical just off the Red Square. The absurd scenes are signs of the trouble Russia is in on many fronts! My analysis👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Live from Mogadishu….no wait Moscow! It’s a technical just off the Red Square😂
October 27, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Live from Mogadishu….no wait Moscow! It’s a technical just off the Red Square😂
Kirill Dimitriev AKA "Trumps handler" arrived in DC yesterday. Fresh of the plane, Dimitriev made the rounds on cable news network, not least Fox News, appealing to the MAGA base. Today Dimitriev meets his buddy Steve Witkoff.
I assess what it means right here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
I assess what it means right here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
October 25, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Kirill Dimitriev AKA "Trumps handler" arrived in DC yesterday. Fresh of the plane, Dimitriev made the rounds on cable news network, not least Fox News, appealing to the MAGA base. Today Dimitriev meets his buddy Steve Witkoff.
I assess what it means right here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
I assess what it means right here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Big day for sanctions against 🇷🇺!
🇪🇺 passed it's 19th package. Trump pulled out a wildcard sanctioning oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.
Also, Hungarian PM Szijjarto met with Secretary Rubio in Washington DC to advance the Budapest Summit. What should we make of it👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
🇪🇺 passed it's 19th package. Trump pulled out a wildcard sanctioning oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.
Also, Hungarian PM Szijjarto met with Secretary Rubio in Washington DC to advance the Budapest Summit. What should we make of it👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
October 23, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Big day for sanctions against 🇷🇺!
🇪🇺 passed it's 19th package. Trump pulled out a wildcard sanctioning oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.
Also, Hungarian PM Szijjarto met with Secretary Rubio in Washington DC to advance the Budapest Summit. What should we make of it👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
🇪🇺 passed it's 19th package. Trump pulled out a wildcard sanctioning oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.
Also, Hungarian PM Szijjarto met with Secretary Rubio in Washington DC to advance the Budapest Summit. What should we make of it👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Putin doesn’t want to miss an opportunity to manipulate Trump. Preparations for the self-proclaimed “peace summit” in Budapest continue. Putin’s “Trump handler” Kirill Dimitriev is usually a reliable source, so I’d put my money on a summit in a few weeks👀
October 22, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Putin doesn’t want to miss an opportunity to manipulate Trump. Preparations for the self-proclaimed “peace summit” in Budapest continue. Putin’s “Trump handler” Kirill Dimitriev is usually a reliable source, so I’d put my money on a summit in a few weeks👀
My Substack should be back up again!
Made a short brief on the cancellation of the Budapest summit, the likelihood that 🇷🇺 frozen assets will go to 🇺🇦 and that we could see Gripen fighter jets too. You find it right here: open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Made a short brief on the cancellation of the Budapest summit, the likelihood that 🇷🇺 frozen assets will go to 🇺🇦 and that we could see Gripen fighter jets too. You find it right here: open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
October 22, 2025 at 7:46 AM
My Substack should be back up again!
Made a short brief on the cancellation of the Budapest summit, the likelihood that 🇷🇺 frozen assets will go to 🇺🇦 and that we could see Gripen fighter jets too. You find it right here: open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Made a short brief on the cancellation of the Budapest summit, the likelihood that 🇷🇺 frozen assets will go to 🇺🇦 and that we could see Gripen fighter jets too. You find it right here: open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
In a normal world summits between world leaders would be a good thing. However, the fewer chances Putin gets to manipulate Trump, the better it is. The cancellation of the absurd Budapest summit is absolutely positive!
October 22, 2025 at 4:28 AM
In a normal world summits between world leaders would be a good thing. However, the fewer chances Putin gets to manipulate Trump, the better it is. The cancellation of the absurd Budapest summit is absolutely positive!